GC VIP Stadium Road Audibles — 5/20/19 Edition

The preseason magazines still have a little bit of time before they come out, so right now the only way to take the temperature on the 2019 conventional wisdom is to look at the betting markets. I am not a bettor and would not encourage anyone else to put money down on sports outcomes, but the people who set the lines are only interested in making money rather than rooting for a particular outcome. Sometimes that means they put bait out there to take suckers’ money or try to get equal money on each side of an outcome, but those are usually easy to spot.

Anyway, using the SportsBetting.ag information as of two days ago, here’s the lay of the land as far as the Florida Gators go.

No one on the team is up on the Heisman odds. This makes perfect sense. The deep skill position lineup is going to spread the ball thin both rushing and receiving. Since defensive players and offensive linemen don’t win Heismans, that leaves Feleipe Franks as the only real possible candidate. Well, even if Franks makes a nearly-unprecedented leap in production based on the history of Mullen quarterbacks, he still tops out at a place that puts him as a second or third team All-SEC performer rather than a Heisman finalist.

UF is seventh in line on odds to win the national championship. Clemson (2/1 odds) and Alabama (2.25/1) are way out in front followed by Georgia (7/1), Ohio State (9/1), Oklahoma (12/1), and Michigan (16/1). The Gators are in a three-way tie with LSU and Texas at 25/1. Behind them is a three-way tie among Notre Dame, Oregon, and Penn State at 33/1. These odds imply a finish somewhere in the No. 7 to 10 range in the polls, which is about where they ended up last year. I don’t see a title run this year, but it’s not utterly inconceivable either. This too feels about right.

The over/under for regular season wins — so, not including a potential SEC title game appearance or bowl — is an even nine. Whether you pick over or under, it pays the same either way. I think the general feeling is that Florida has four games that are above the rest in likelihood of losses: Miami (FL), Auburn, at LSU, and Georgia. I would also note a cold, mid-November road game at Mizzou is probably a win but far from a guarantee.

UF has to win every game it should and split the four big question marks to best nine wins. I think nine is about right for an expectation, so again, this seems right on. I’m not seeing much value in the Florida-related lines yet. If I had to pick, I’d go over because I think two losses is more likely than four.

As of right now, five regular season games have lines on them.

The first is the opener against Miami with the Gators a 7.5-point favorite. I know that UM has a lot of question marks on offense, particularly at quarterback, but I don’t trust Florida’s new offensive line against the Hurricane defensive line in Game 1. I think I’d take the points in expectation of something like a 24-17 finish.

Next up is Tennessee, where the Gators are a 14.5-point favorite in the Swamp. They did win by 26 points in Knoxville a year ago, but that was with a 6-1 win in the turnover battle. One of them was C.J. Henderson poking the ball out of a tight end’s hands and through the end zone just before a long touchdown. Florida is the better team, but it’ll probably be similar in quality to last year. Tennessee should be improved, and it probably won’t have a deficit of -5 in the turnover department. I might still take the Gators, but it’s more points than you might think.

Next up is the Auburn game, where UF is another 7.5-point favorite. I wouldn’t touch this one with a 30-foot pole regardless of the margin. AU is a random number generator and often does best when people aren’t expecting a lot. The fact that Gus Malzahn is taking back over the offense like he should’ve been doing all along means the Tigers’ offense will probably be pretty good, and they recruit well on defense. The bottom line is this: ain’t no one knows what Auburn will be this fall. No one. Not even the Auburn coaches.

The LSU game comes in fourth, and the Tigers are a 2.5-point favorite at home. Given that three points for homefield advantage is the rule of thumb, this basically means a toss up on a neutral field. I’ll like Florida here. I don’t know how much better LSU’s offense can get with Joe Burrow as quarterback, and its defense lost its leaders.

The fifth game with a line up is the Cocktail Party, and Georgia is a four-point favorite. I hate to say it, but the smart play from a betting standpoint is to take UGA. The Bulldogs’ talent still well outstrips the Gators’ talent, and while I don’t think Florida has no shot, the most likely outcome is not a Georgia win of a field goal or less.

So that’s where the sharps in the desert see Florida right now. It’s probably not that different than you or I do, really. Florida football in 2019 is as close to a solved problem as it gets as far as projections go. The expectations are clear: roughly something as good as last year, plus or minus.

David Wunderlich
David Wunderlich is a born-and-raised Gator and a proud Florida alum. He has been writing about Florida and SEC football since 2006. He currently lives in Naples Italy, at least until the Navy stations his wife elsewhere. You can follow him on Twitter @Year2