The Gators took care of business on Saturday and did what you’re supposed to when a rival has hit a rough patch: kick them when they’re down.
With the Seminoles stuck looking among their tertiary choices for a head coach and Miami having completed a season that aged Manny Diaz about ten years, Florida is the clear pinnacle of football in the state. The Big 3 is a Big 1 right now, and that one is in Gainesville. There is work to do to kick invaders like Georgia and Clemson back out of the state in the recruiting sense, but Dan Mullen didn’t need long to reestablish the program as the state of Florida’s flagship.
To that end, UF is in fairly good shape to go to a New Year’s Six bowl for the second consecutive year. They haven’t been to a big money bowl in consecutive years since the last time they won ten games in consecutive years: 2008-09. How the committee deals with Alabama will determine which of the NY6 games the Gators attend.
The selection committee changes from year to year as members come and go. The original committee in 2014 was serious about quality, sniffing out FSU’s teetering status and putting it No. 3 behind a pair of one-loss teams prior to bowl season. This year’s committee has fallen back into the old poll habit of putting teams into groupings based on the number of losses they have.
With Bama having two losses now, the Tide will go into the same tier as the Gators. Never mind that quantitative rankings still love Alabama; there probably won’t be any one-loss teams from Power 5 conferences staring up at Nick Saban’s team on Tuesday night.
The AP Poll is not terribly helpful for anticipating the committee. Last week the media had Florida at No. 8, Minnesota at No. 9, Baylor at No. 11, and Penn State at No. 12. A few days later, the committee unveiled its lineup with Minnesota at No. 8, Baylor at No. 9, Penn State at No. 10, and Florida at No. 11. The AP currently has the Gators at seventh, two spots ahead of Bama, but that may ultimately mean nothing.
UF needs to finish about No. 9 or higher to feel good about a spot with how the playoff rotation worked out this year. The number and order of SEC and Big Ten teams ahead of the Gators will determine which bowl they would go to.
The first SEC team outside the top four will go to the Sugar Bowl. The first Big Ten team outside the top four will go to the Rose Bowl. That much is certain.
Either the second SEC or second Big Ten team outside the top four will go to the Orange Bowl opposite an ACC team. Whichever of the two is ranked higher will get that spot.
If you did a mock New Year’s Six based on the last few polls, Florida was not in line for the Orange Bowl. Alabama was always getting the Sugar spot, Minnesota was getting the Rose spot, and Penn State was going to the Orange. With the Golden Gophers taking on a second loss, the Gators have a good chance of passing them up.
The committee tends to look more at wins than losses, and UF has the same number of ranked wins (one, Auburn) as Minnesota does (one, Penn State). The Gators have their one close win over 6-6 Miami, but the Gophers have several questionable wins like those by seven over FCS South Dakota State, by three in overtime over 4-8 Fresno State, by three over 7-5 Georgia Southern, and by seven over 4-8 Purdue. Florida was also competitive in both of its losses to present top-four teams, unlike Minny’s 21-point loss to Wisconsin last weekend.
Jumping the Gophers would put the Gators in line for Miami regardless of where Penn State is, and I do think the Nittany Lions’ two ranked wins (Michigan, Iowa) will keep them ahead of UF. Thing is, if LSU wins the SEC Championship Game as expected, the lineup will change.
Georgia being in the top four is the reason why Bama has been in line for the Sugar Bowl all this time. A Tiger win would drop the Bulldogs out of the semifinals and into New Orleans. If the order is still Bama then Florida, the Crimson Tide would go to Miami.
It’s going to be hard for the Gators to jump the strong brand of Saban’s bunch in the committee rankings, even if they did in the AP Poll. There are a few things in their favor that just might make it happen.
For one thing, Bama doesn’t have a ranked win. Their marquee non-conference game being Duke this year bit them since the SEC only has five good teams. The Tide didn’t play either of the good East teams and lost to the two other good West teams. Thus, Florida has that edge.
Common opponent analysis is friendly to Florida on net as well. Auburn and its uneven attack scored 34 offensive points against Alabama after scoring 13 against the Gators. UF’s 34-3 win over Tennessee looks much better than the Tide’s 35-13 victory, and that was with Tua Tagovailoa playing. A late coverage blunder from a true freshman after the game was decided allowed Bama to turn a 12-point deficit against LSU into a five-point loss; otherwise it was fairly similar in nature to Florida’s 14-point loss to the Tigers.
Plus, Tua isn’t coming back for the bowl game. The committee guidelines direct them to consider major injuries, and that would certainly qualify. If he was going to be ready for the bowl, they could rank Bama higher on the strength of the team with its starting quarterback and stay within what’s kosher. Instead, they’re going to have to rank the Mac Jones version of the team. That version still put up far more points on AU than Florida did, but Jones also gifted the Tigers two of their touchdowns.
If Alabama stays ahead of UF, the Gators would have to settle for the Cotton Bowl. It’s not the worst consolation prize, and the matchup against either the AAC champ or Boise State there would probably be comparable to if not better than playing someone like Virginia in the Orange Bowl. Given Florida’s edge as the undisputed top of the Big 3 right now, playing in Miami for a potential recruiting bump would probably be the best venue for the program.
Bama staying higher means the only other real consideration is that UF needs to finish ahead of any non-champs from the Pac-12 and Big 12 to put itself first in line for the at-large spot in the Cotton. That would mean passing up the loser of the Big 12 title game between Baylor and Oklahoma and also Utah if it loses to Oregon. OU’s win over Baylor is the only ranked win among those teams, so passing up two-loss Baylor or Utah shouldn’t be a problem.
Two-loss Oklahoma would be tougher since the Baylor win will look better than beating Auburn, but the committee had been keeping the Sooners lower than the conventional wisdom-saturated AP Poll for a while until last week. OU’s comparative stinker of a loss to 8-4 Kansas State and the Big 12’s general weakness might be enough for the Gators to jump it.
But none of that matters if the Gators pass up Alabama. If they do, they’ll get the Orange Bowl bid if LSU wins the SEC Championship Game. They’ll probably get the Sugar Bowl if Georgia wins since both the Tigers and Bulldogs likely end up in the semifinals after a UGA win. Setting aside the loss of schadenfreude at Georgia’s expense if they miss the Playoff, that’s a win-win situation. Jump the Tide in the rankings, and there are no bad options.