Florida’s New Year’s Six chances hindered by College Football Playoff rotation

Florida sits at No. 11 in the College Football Playoff selection committee rankings announced this week. Because of what the semifinal sites are and who is in front of them, the Gators would not go to a New Year’s Six game if the selections happened based on these rankings.

If the semifinals were different, however, then they would be in line go to one. Let me explain.

This year’s Fiesta-Peach semifinal scenario

For now let’s assume that the highest-ranked team from each conference functions as the league’s champion for the sake of placement. That’s pretty standard for midseason projections.

First up, the committee fills the semifinals. Then, they fill up to five spots, depending on the rotation, with champions if possible but otherwise the highest-ranked available team from each Power 5 league: SEC and Big 12 in the Sugar Bowl, Big Ten and Pac-12 in the Rose Bowl, and ACC in the Orange Bowl. Next, the other spot in the Orange Bowl goes to the highest-ranked available team among the SEC, Big Ten, and Notre Dame. Finally, the highest-ranked champion of a Group of 5 conference gets a bid, and the highest-ranked available teams go into whatever spots are left.

Take this week’s rankings. The semifinals probably would have No. 1 LSU and No. 4 Georgia in the Fiesta Bowl and No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Clemson in the Peach Bowl. The top ranked team is supposed to get preferential treatment in placement, and I assume LSU doesn’t want to play in a de facto home game for the Bulldogs.

The Sugar Bowl would get No. 5 Alabama and No. 9 Oklahoma. The Rose Bowl would get No. 6 Oregon and No. 8 Penn State. The Orange Bowl would get No. 10 Minnesota for its SEC/B1G/ND slot and a dilemma for its other. Because no ACC team is ranked other than semifinal-bound Clemson, the game’s board of directors would have to pick an ACC team to fill the other spot. Because we don’t know who that would be, I’ll just call it the ACC slot for now.

That leaves only the Cotton Bowl. It takes the Group of 5 representative in No. 18 Memphis. The other spot goes to the highest-ranked available team, which is No. 7 Utah.

Here is what the lineup looks like:

  • Fiesta: No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Georgia
  • Peach: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson
  • Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. Oklahoma (Big 12)
  • Rose: Oregon (Pac-12) vs. Penn State (Big Ten)
  • Orange: ACC vs. Minnesota (SEC/B1G/ND)
  • Cotton: Memphis (G5) vs. Utah (at-large)

The Rose-Sugar semifinal scenario

Now, let’s imagine we’re in an alternate universe where the Rose and Sugar were hosting the semifinals instead of the Fiesta and Peach. Applying the same rules in the same order, here is what the New Year’s Six projection would look like:

  • Sugar: No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Georgia
  • Rose: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson
  • Orange: ACC vs. Alabama (SEC/B1G/ND)
  • Cotton: Utah (at-large) vs. Minnesota (at-large)
  • Fiesta: Oregon (Pac-12 champ) vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 champ)
  • Peach: Memphis (G5) vs. Penn State (at-large)

Florida is still not in a NY6 game, but you can see how things moved around. The spot opposite the ACC team in the Orange Bowl now goes to an Alabama team that would absolutely destroy Wake or VT or someone like that. Oregon and Oklahoma are also guaranteed spots somewhere in the lineup as P5 champions whose tie-ins went to semifinal games.

The three games without tie-ins have the teams arranged largely by geography and preference given to higher ranked teams. My instinct was to put Memphis in the Cotton like above, but that would trigger a rematch of Minnesota and Penn State in the Peach. Committee guidelines tell them to avoid rematches wherever possible.

The bottom line here is this: none of the matchups outside the semifinals is the same. Change the semifinal sites, and everything else changes too.

The Orange and Cotton semifinal scenario

Putting the Orange Bowl into the semifinals is enough to change the teams that get in because there is no longer a spot reserved for a second ACC team alongside presumed league champ Clemson. Only conference champions stuck outside the semifinals like Oregon and Oklahoma in the last section get guaranteed spots when their tie-ins are in semifinal games.

Here is how this would work out:

  • Cotton: No. 1 LSU vs. No. 4 Georgia
  • Orange: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Clemson
  • Sugar: Alabama (SEC) vs. Oklahoma (Big 12)
  • Rose: Oregon (Pac-12) vs. Penn State (Big Ten)
  • Fiesta: Utah (at-large) vs. Florida (at-large)
  • Peach: Memphis (G5) vs. Minnesota (at-large)

In the first two scenarios, the unranked ACC team going to the Orange Bowl removes an at-large spot. That makes the cutoff for at-larges No. 10 Minnesota. Here with that tie-in slot gone, the cutoff is now No. 11.

Therefore, the No. 11 Gators make it into a big money bowl in this scenario. Because the committee is supposed to try not to send the a team to the same game repeatedly if possible, UF would go out west for a narrative-rich matchup with Utah in the Fiesta.

A reminder

This is how it works based on the current rankings. The final rankings almost certainly will look differently than they do now.

Penn State probably will lose badly to Ohio State this week. Minnesota could lose to Wisconsin in two weeks, and if they don’t, they’ll lose badly to the Buckeyes in the B1G title game. The Iron Bowl and SEC Championship Game — and hey, maybe even Georgia-Texas A&M this week — will help determine how many SEC teams make the semifinals.

If the Gators take care of business against FSU, I think they’ll be higher than No. 11 due to Minnesota at the least falling behind them. Getting to No. 10 is the key threshold for them making a New Year’s Six game. Get there and they’re in.

However if the semifinals were the Orange and Cotton instead of the Fiesta and Peach, Florida would have more margin of error to work with. That’s college football for you.

David Wunderlich
David Wunderlich is a born-and-raised Gator and a proud Florida alum. He has been writing about Florida and SEC football since 2006. He currently lives in Naples Italy, at least until the Navy stations his wife elsewhere. You can follow him on Twitter @Year2

1 COMMENT

  1. It appears to me that besides UF at least two, if not three or four teams you have mentioned will have 2 losses each after the conference championships. The Pac 12 will have a two loss team as will the Big 10, which may have 2 two loss teams. Georgia and Alabama could be two loss teams also. I don’t see UF being shut out of a New Year’s 6 bowl game if we beat FSU.