Revisiting Preseason Transfer Projections

With the transfer portal being as important, if not more, than high recruiting when it comes to building a roster in 2023 programs are always looking for ways to evaluate how players will translate to new programs. Whether it be a high major to high major transfer or the far more common low or mid major to high transfer there are always question marks about how a player’s production will translate and the teams that have figured out how to appropriately assess transfer talent have a huge edge in building winning rosters. 

 

As we speak, Florida’s coaching staff is tirelessly working the portal with lots of roster spots to fill and a lot of production to be gained. In their second year at Florida they will take what they learned from their first year in the high major transfer waters and use those lessons to inform future decisions. 

 

If you’re a regular Gator Country reader you will remember that before the season I made statistical projections for each incoming transfer, something I have done for three seasons now. Now that the season is done, it’s time to revisit those projections and see what players exceeded expectations and who fell short, and of course–see how well my system worked. 


Here is my preseason article if you want to check that out and see a bit of how the system works, as well as see how I did in prior seasons.

Let’s take a look at the preseason projections I produced as well as the actual stats of these players:

 

Kyle Lofton Projected Stats:

 

8.7 PPG

3.9 APG

3.1 RPG

1.7 SPG

0.1 BPG 

30.5% Three-Point

27.8 MPG

 

Kyle Lofton 2022-23 Stats:

 

8.7 PPG

3.5 APG

3.1 RPG

1.1 SPG

0.1 BPG

28.8% Three-Point

32.4 MPG

 

Will Richard Projected Stats:

 

5.2 PPG

1.4 APG

3.6 RPG

0.9 SPG

0.7 BPG

33.2% Three-Point

19.0 MPG

 

Will Richard 2022-23 Stats:

 

10.4 PPG

0.8 APG

4.5 RPG

0.9 SPG

0.6 BPG

39.8% Three-Point

27.8 MPG

 

Trey Bonham Projected Stats:

 

6.1 PPG

2.5 APG

2.3 RPG

1.0 SPG

0.1 BPG

35% Three-Point

18.6 MPG

 

Trey Bonham 2022-23 Stats

 

5.6 PPG

1.1 APG

1.8 RPG

0.7 SPG

0.0 BPG

32.9% Three-Point

13.4 MPG

 

Alex Fudge Projected Stats:

 

4.3 PPG

0.8 APG

3.3 RPG

1.1 SPG

1.2 BPG

31% Three-Point

15 MPG 

 

Alex Fudge 2022-23 Stats

 

5.8 PPG

0.4 APG

4.5 RPG

0.4 SPG

0.8 BPG

22.9% Three-Point

19.3 MPG

 

Kyle Lofton’s projection is probably my best in three years doing this, nailing his points and rebounds (though, he did play more minutes than I expected). After playing for four years in the Atlantic 10 and playing so many minutes, he’s someone whose production was, or should have been, easily predictable. Poor perimeter shooting numbers, suboptimal finishing at the rim numbers, and rather pedestrian pick and roll efficiency at St. Bonaventure was a huge piece of the puzzle when it came to my projections, and I’d say that’s about what we saw with his offensive game at Florida. It’s worth noting that his best basketball was played on the defensive side of the ball where he did have a solid season–something that projections and box score numbers aren’t going to capture. For a staff that is very analytically minded, this was never an analytical take. This was about getting a veteran player with excellent leadership abilities–which was something he did bring to the team. However, he lacked the offensive juice required to win at a high level in the SEC, and wasn’t able to raise the Gators’ level on the offensive end. 

 

A player who outperformed his projections was Will Richard who had a stellar season for the Gators providing consistent shooting while also pulling down a considerable amount of rebounds for a player of his size. As soon as I started the projections for Richard I was concerned they weren’t going to be particularly accurate. The more minutes a player has played in college basketball the more sample size there is to work with–and Richard only played one season at Belmont before coming to Florida. There isn’t much history of first year players transferring from the Ohio Valley Conference to the high major level, so there wasn’t a lot of data to base his projections off. As a freshman at Belmont his shooting numbers weren’t great, something that hurt his projected numbers. Of course, things couldn’t have been more different at Florida. Richard was not only an outstanding shooter, but he was consistent. While he finished just a hair below 40% from three, he deserves more credit than even that number would suggest due to how steady he was from deep. He wasn’t the kind of shooter that would run extremely hot then extremely cold–he was regularly putting up solid shooting performances and most coaches would take that consistency over someone who can catch fire or go on droughts. Considering how much he improved from a freshman at Belmont to a sophomore at Florida, the Gators should expect big things from Richard next season on the assumption he returns. 

 

Trey Bonham is a player that I actually had higher projected numbers from–until Kyle Lofton came to Gainesville. We saw some of his explosive scoring power in the early part of the season, but we also saw him fall completely out of the rotation when the staff deemed his defense to be inadequate. Ultimately my projections ended up being somewhat close, but truthfully it seems like Bonham’s final numbers didn’t really tell the whole story of his season. On Thursday, March 23rd he entered the transfer portal, though he is open to the staff re-recruiting him if they are interested. If he were to return, it would be interesting to see if he would be able to defend at a level where the staff would play him enough to let the offense skill develop even more.

 

When it comes to Alex Fudge’s season, it was one of three acts. To start the season, Fudge struggled to get his feet underneath him, and it looked like my predictions were going to be close to the truth. However, near the middle of the season, things started to really come together and he started to play excellent basketball, punctuated by a 13-point performance against an outstanding UConn team. However, things took a turn for the worse in SEC play when he suffered a concussion that completely derailed the progress he was making. He returned to the Gators rather quickly, but it was clear he was a different player, not playing with the same level of anticipation and physicality that he was prior to the injury. The flashes that Fudge shows are incredible, but he is yet to prove he is a big minute earner on a high level SEC team. While the projections ended up being close here, you can point to the concussion as a reason he didn’t vastly surpass them.

 

Overall, I’m happy with how the projections worked out. At the time I released them they looked admittedly uninspiring, but perhaps that was an indication of what was to come of Florida’s season. Using data to project transfers is a valuable tool and one that the Gators are likely using to evaluate players they have interest in, and hopefully it can point them in the direction of key talent that can compete at the top of both the SEC and college basketball on the whole. 



Eric Fawcett
Eric is a basketball coach and writer from Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. His work has been found at NBA international properties, ESPN, Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, Lindy's and others. He loves zone defenses, the extra pass, and a 30 second shot clock. Growing up in Canada, an American channel showing SEC basketball games was his first exposure to Gator hoops, and he has been hooked ever since. You can follow him on Twitter at @ericfawcett_.