The transfer portal has become a massive part of roster building in college basketball and every season teams, fans, and media alike have the same question–how will players who transferred perform at their new spot?
Predicting the effectiveness of a player is particularly difficult with low and mid major players as some have popped off in a new setting with more talent around them while others have crumbled playing against a heightened level of talent and athleticism. High major to high major transfers still have plenty of questions as well with styles of play factoring in heavily to a player’s productivity.
Two seasons ago I came up with an algorithm to predict the stats of incoming transfers Tyree Appleby and Anthony Duruji, and they ended up being quite accurate. I made some tweaks the next year with Brandon McKissic, Myreon Jones, Phlandrous Fleming, and CJ Felder, and I had success once again. You can read about that and see the predictions and actual outcomes here.
So, of course, I had to make another run at it with Florida’s new batch of transfers this season.
Before I get into the predictions for each player I’ll have to give some preamble.
Will this sound like an excuse in case I’m way off? Potentially. Is that why I’m saying it? Partially.
Part of the reason the predictions ended up being so accurate the last two seasons, in my opinion, is that Florida basketball was extremely predictable from a style of play standpoint. That isn’t a shot at Mike White–it’s just a fact that by year five of a coach at a program their style of play is pretty defined. Because the style of play was a bit of a given, it was easy to plug players into certain roles and see how they would project to do in those roles.
I don’t have the luxury of a huge sample size of Golden at the high major level to know exactly how the team is going to play, something that could throw a wrench into the projections. I can make guesses based on how San Francisco played and how offensive coordinator Kevin Hovde’s team played at Richmond–and I will use those as a baseline–but I am expecting changes as Coach goes from trying to beat Gonzaga, BYU, and Saint Mary’s as an underdog to now being eye to eye with SEC rivals.
Another thing to consider when looking at these projections–Florida is very deep, and I’m expecting there to be a lot of players getting theirs from a minutes and production standpoint. These four transfers aren’t going to be the only ones getting points, and rebounds, and assists, and the numbers you’re about to see might be lower than you expect. Just remember that there is a lot of returning talent and some quality freshmen that are going to contribute as well, and these predictions would certainly end up being off if I assumed the Gators were going to score 100 points per game because that would be unrealistic.
Enough of a prelude, let’s get to the predictions:
Kyle Lofton
27.8 MPG
8.7 PPG
3.9 APG
3.1 RPG
1.7 SPG
0.1 BPG
30.5% Three-Point
Trey Bonham
18.6 MPG
6.1 PPG
2.5 APG
2.3 RPG
1.0 SPG
0.1 BPG
35% Three-Point
Will Richard
19.0 MPG
5.2 PPG
1.4 APG
3.6 RPG
0.9 SPG
0.7 BPG
33.2% Three-Point
Alex Fudge
15.0 MPG
4.3 PPG
0.8 APG
3.3 RPG
1.1 SPG
1.2 BPG
31% Three-Point
Let’s talk about it, starting with Kyle Lofton.
Lofton played an incredible amount of minutes over four years at St. Bonaventure making for huge sample sizes, something that hurt him a bit in the projections. Yes, the Atlantic 10 is a great league, but there is still going to be a big adjustment in talent level. Hurting Lofton in the projections is that he doesn’t have great individual scoring numbers as a pull up player or a finisher at the rim, and his pick and roll ball handling numbers for his career are quite pedestrian. While his individual scoring ability isn’t going to be his calling card he’s an excellent decision maker who should have solid assist numbers and generally be a savvy floor general that helps the Gators flow smoothly. Also of note–his best attribute as a player might be his perimeter defense, which isn’t anything statistical predictions will ever capture.
My prediction model is a big fan of Trey Bonham and predicts him to be a solid backup point guard who gets some run next to Lofton at times. The biggest thing that contributes to a positive outlook for Bonham is that he was truly elite in pick and roll at VMI and while the Southern Conference isn’t the SEC, Bonham being so dominant as a pick and roll player in only his second year is something that has me very excited for his time at Florida.
Will Richard is in a very different situation than any player I have had to do predictions for over the last few years. Most of the players that have transferred to Florida have been older players who have one or two distinct skills that have them ready for the high major game. Richard, on the other hand, is young (only going into his second year), and was a jack-of-all trades who wasn’t great at any one particular skill but was capable of a lot of things. My transfer model relies a lot at looking at similar players from similar situations in the past, and there just weren’t many similar players to compare Richard to. Something the model didn’t like is that he isn’t a great finisher at the rim, and he doesn’t have great individual creation abilities. However…few first year players do. It’s one thing for the model to look at Brandon McKissic last year and look at a huge sample size and an older player and declare him someone that isn’t great at creating offense, but it would be tremendously foolish to look at a first year player and think he’s not going to get any better. It’s very hard to project young players, so this was a tough one. He could absolutely beat out these projections.
In a similar situation is Alex Fudge, a highly sought-after high school recruit that struggled to get on the floor for LSU in SEC play. What do you do with a player like that? Again, much like with Richard–there were very few comparable players to help out the projection. Additionally, there was so little sample size because of the limited minutes Fudge played. I had to rely on similarly-rated high school talents that struggled in year one but stayed high major and it came out with a projection that seems reasonable, but if Fudge commands a starting role based on talent and athleticism these numbers could end up being way off.
One last thing I’ll add–studying transfers across college basketball…nearly always players end up producing less than people think, and I would go as far as to say that transfers often get overrated. Both seasons I have done the projections people have said that the numbers looked really low…and the numbers ended up being quite accurate. That isn’t a Florida exclusive situation–look across college basketball over the last couple of years and you’ll see that there are a lot of really good up transfers to the high major level, but very few amazing ones. That isn’t to say none of these Gators will beat out the projections, in fact, multiple or even all very well might! But if you truly look across how transfers have looked in recent years, measured expectations are probably the wise way to go.
Let me know where you think the projections are right and where you think they’re wrong, and we’ll be certain to revisit these after the season!