I noted after last year’s Miami debacle that Billy Napier was about out of excuses. Napier himself had spent most of the postgame press conference repeating that he had no excuses for the poor performace.
Let’s review some of Napier’s quotes after his team’s 18-16 loss to USF:
“Not good enough, and it’s my responsibility.”
“We have to do much better.”
“There’s no excuse here. I’m not up here to make excuses.”
* * *
After last year’s Texas A&M game, I predicted Napier’s firing barring an unforeseen miracle. That miracle did come, and as for this year, say it with me now: “Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois and then played for the national championship in 2024”. I’m not predicting a firing now, but it’s not looking good to say the least.
I still think this is the most talented Florida team in a decade, and the defense showed up nearly as well as I wanted to see. The unit allowed 16 points on the day, but ten of them are more on the staff than the players. The Gators gave up three points shortly before the half while being asked to play pillowy soft — and while some poor tackling set up a shorter field goal, Nico Gramatica had the leg to make it had Byrum Brown been sacked — and the coverage bust touchdown came when the coaches were unprepared for tempo and didn’t get the call in on time.
It wasn’t perfect from the defense. There were some penalties, including some egregious spitting from Brendan Bett on the final drive, and the tackling wasn’t always sure. However, what the defense did should’ve been enough.
The offense got only a single touchdown on the night, helped quite a bit by USF penalties and the Gators’ own special teams. Vernell Brown III had a long punt return to set it up, but it was a second-chance return after USF was flagged for an illegal shift on the first punt attempt. Then a personal foul tacked 15 more yards on the end of it.
One of the bigger problems with the offense is that DJ Lagway still looks unsure of himself after missing most live practice in the offseason.
There are things that can be done about that. Sure, he missed a lot of practice time, but he also was beating SEC teams on one leg as a true freshman in 2024. Even his one interception against the Bulls was of the arm-punt variety and not one of the crushingly bad reads that he had a few of a year ago. There’s much that can be done for him right now.
Such as: run some tempo, to help Lagway get out of his own head. Also, run some simpler concepts. The Air Raid is chock full of them, and offensive coordinator Russ Callaway has run Air Raid before. Since Lagway is healthy and mobile, there could be more one-read-and-go type plays as well. Those might help stop defenses from dropping so many players, which Jon Sumrall and Tulane in the bowl game taught everyone is how you make Lagway uncomfortable.
But Napier doesn’t run tempo. He’s a devoted shorten-the-game guy — sorry, a devoted complementary football guy — even though shortening the game when you have a talent advantage works against you. It allows, say, a rare snap over a punter’s head that ends in a safety to be the difference in a two-point loss to a lesser-talented opponent.
Napier also doesn’t change his offense, because look how far it’s gotten him: to the head coaching job at UF. He lacks the self awareness to realize he got there despite his offense, not because of it. He’s not going to make big changes. He is, in Saturday’s case, going to keep playing a lot of two-tight end sets even though tight end is easily the least talented position group on the offense and looked it between a drop, key penalties, and missed blocks.
Napier’s game management also leaves something to be desired for the fourth year running. There were some real head scratchers down the stretch, like asking Tre Wilson to block a linebacker on a 3rd & short run. Another was having two incomplete passes on a drive while leading by one point with just under three minutes to go in the game. Running into the middle of the pile three times also would’ve resulted in a quick punt, but it at least would’ve either burned more clock, at least one of USF’s remaining timeouts, or both.
Going back to the post-A&M near obituary, here were the main grievances:
- No defensive improvement: this actually has turned around and stayed turned around, but it took players begging the coaches to simplify the defense to get there. It wasn’t the coaches’ idea to do the thing that finally worked.
- Predictable offense: the next time Napier genuinely surprises a defense will be the first, still.
- Offensive line issues: the line returned four starters, including an All-American at center and a likely early-round pick at left tackle. It’s been a mess through two games, allowing too many tackles-for-loss to an FCS team and for USF to live in the backfield. Last year’s Miami game saw problems stemming from extensive line rotations, and there’s been a lot of rotation so far this year.
- Not playing the best players: a walk on receiver got a lot of run in the second half against Texas A&M (and tripped and fell on a critical throw to him) despite having plenty of more talented scholarship receivers. See the complaint above about tight end.
- Game management: it’s been an issue from the beginning, from clock management at the ends of halves in 2022 to end-game problems against USF.
I also dinged Napier for a lack of a sense of urgency to win, and that apparently extends beyond him. Andy Staples has said before and reiterated in his USF loss reaction podcast that Napier’s return for 2025 originally came with strings attached. One of them was that he had to hire a new play-calling offensive coordinator. However, Napier got enough credit with the LSU and Ole Miss wins a year ago that those conditions were dropped. Staples hasn’t said who dropped the conditions, but it’s hard not to guess that it was the guy who just got a contract extension.
A lot had to go wrong for Florida to lose this game: -1 turnover margin, 11 penalties for 103 yards, Lagway sailing passes, a long busted coverage TD for the Bulls, the safety snafu. The Gators can and probably will play better, especially if Lagway can right himself to last November’s form.
The Gators may yet win some of these games that look hopeless now. They did it last year, and they can do it again. But short of another miracle where they get to 9-3 or better and make the playoff, someone in leadership at UF (if any real leaders exist anymore) will have to decide if after four years of the same exact problems whether it makes sense to sign up for a fifth.