Here are some selected quotes from Billy Napier’s postgame press conference on Saturday:
“I don’t have a ton of excuses.”
“There’s no excuses.”
“I’m not here to make excuses.”
“I have no excuses for you.”
I’m old enough to remember when Florida vs. Iowa in the Outback Bowl was a brief running gag. The Gators played their bowl in Tampa three times in four years, following the 2002, 2003, and 2005 seasons. They faced the Hawkeyes in the latter two games. It was a mild form of gallows humor to talk about the disappointing results of the Zook years that briefly bled into the Meyer era.
Iowa has been a college football punchline of late for how they’ve won games almost entirely on defense and special teams. Head coach Kirk Ferentz’s son Brian was a nepotism-hire at offensive coordinator, and it got so bad that by last year, he had a mandatory threshold of 25 points per game written into his contract. The interim AD canceled the most-watched bet in college football by firing him at the end of October, but he was nowhere close to being on pace to hit the mark.
The elder Ferentz is not a football savant. His recruiting classes are generally ranked in the 30s, and a good year means he has signed five or more 4-star prospects. He’s barely used the transfer portal more than Dabo Swinney has. Iowa City is far from major talent centers, and the overall athletic program makes about $40 million less per year than UF’s does.
But year in and year out, Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country. And it always has one of the best special teams units in the country.
Florida’s defenses have been among the worst in the program’s living memory the past two years. Its special teams units have done some good things but also have helped cost the team some games. This, despite the roster having plenty of former blue chip recruits and the staff’s substantial use of the portal.
Iowa won 18 games across 2022-23 despite its offense being a literal joke. Napier will need to win seven games this year get to 18 wins through three seasons.
A trendy thing to say as the Will Muschamp regime wound down was that the Florida program needed continuity. There was a lot of churn among Muschamp’s assistant coaches, particularly on the offensive side of the ball. He had three different offensive coordinators and offensive line coaches in four seasons, and he had a new wide receivers every year. It was a mess.
The staffing turmoil calmed down a lot under Jim McElwain. Only one assistant coach turned over from 2015 to 2016. Three more did from 2016 to 2017, but in one case that was due to Geoff Collins getting a head coaching job. That still left eight of 11 coaches, including McElwain and strength coach Mike Kent, remaining from the original staff in Year 3. Continuity had largely been restored.
The Gators never averaged more than 23.9 points per game in a season under McElwain. He was fired during the 2017 campaign, and Florida won just four of the 11 games it played.
I don’t know who coined the “Sun Belt Billy” nickname, but Napier has yet to beat the charges.
Only three of the many people who worked with Napier in Lafayette and then came to Gainesville have conclusively panned out. All-American O’Cyrus Torrence and Montrell Johnson certainly did as players, and running backs coach Jabbar Juluke’s room has perhaps been the best single position unit on the team all three years.
Kam Waites is the final of the players who transferred over. He unfortunately has had a hard time getting and staying healthy. He got a chance to go against Miami, but Pro Football Focus gave him a grade of 0.0 for pass blocking.
Patrick Toney and Austin Armstrong oversaw some of the worst defenses in the modern era, and it didn’t look any better with Ron Roberts helping out against Miami. Chris Couch’s “GameChangers” unit struggled with consistency on the basics for two years. However, special teams was in great shape last Saturday after a complete outsider from the Patriots was hired specifically to help with organization.
The offensive line overseen by Rob Sale, who’s still there, and Darnell Stapleton, who left last winter, declined after losing Torrence and other veterans following their first year. Former strength coach Mark Hocke was moved to an administrative role after two years. Assistant William Peagler left after his tight ends unit had a completely forgettable ’22 season.
The final major hire not yet listed was Napier choosing himself as play-calling offensive coordinator. It’s been said many times that “the offense wasn’t the problem” when discussing the team’s troubles, but that’s only because the defense has been a five-alarm fire.
Across 2022-23, Florida scored 18 points per game against teams that finished in the top 25 of the SP+ defense ratings. Those teams collectively allowed an average of 19.2 points per game overall and 20.3 points per game against P5 opponents.
Napier’s offense can attack lesser defenses well enough, but it too often falters against the best.
Here is a selected quote from Napier’s regular press appearance on Monday:
“Sometimes you deserve criticism… I would say I have no excuses, right?”