Florida versus Missouri advanced stats review

Florida put up a big win on the scoreboard with a 41-17 victory over Missouri on Saturday. Just how good of a performance was it? The answer may surprise you if you are still dwelling on the relatively slow start for the offense.

This review is based on Bill Connelly’s Five Factors of winning, and sacks are counted as pass plays.

I threw out UF’s drive to end the first half, since it was just running out the clock. I also cut things off after Florida’s touchdown to go up 41-10 because the Gators went to mostly backups and walk ons after that point.

Explosiveness

Everyone has a different definition for what counts as an “explosive play”, but I go with runs of at least 12 yards and passes of at least 16 yards.

Team Runs 12+ Pct. Passes 16+ Pct. Explosive Pct.
Missouri 1 5.3% 1 3.6% 4.3%
Florida 3 12.0% 10 37.0% 25.0%

You’re reading this correctly: Missouri had almost no explosive gains at all before things truly went to garbage time, and by many definitions, it went to garbage time even before I cut this analysis off. Jalen Knox had his 32-yard run, and tight end Niko Hea snagged a 19-yard reception. That was it for the Tigers, thanks in no small part to some drops like the one of Knox’s that everyone remembers.

Florida was not so explosive on the ground, continuing a season-long trend. All three big rushes came after intermission, and two were surprises from Kyle Trask. The situation was similar to the South Carolina game when Trask notched the Gators’ only explosive run while the Gamecock defense wasn’t looking for it.

Trask’s explosive pass rate was very high, however, and it was even more so at 42.1% in the first half. It’s a little padded by his red zone struggles leading into the early field goal attempts all coming from either the 10 or 14-yard-line. They didn’t go in the explosive rate denominator since the plays were closer than 16 yards to the end zone. Even so, the passing game was chunk play after chunk play after chunk play.

Efficiency

The main measure here is success rate. Watch this short video if you need to brush up on it.

Team Run SR Pass SR Overall SR Red Zone SR
Missouri 26.3% 30.0% 28.6% 20.0%
Florida 50.0% 51.5% 50.8% 42.9%

Mizzou’s offense was brutal a lot of the night. Connor Bazelak had a lot of errant throws, and there were some drops. The Tigers’ run game never got going to any degree. Florida’s defense really did have a get-right game, albeit with that help from miscues.

By the overall explosiveness and efficiency numbers, the Gator defense did better against Missouri than either Tennessee or Kentucky did. I think most folks heading into the weekend would’ve put those defenses ahead of Florida’s in the conference ratings. Not that Mizzou is the ultimate yardstick for SEC defense, but it’s a nice accomplishment.

Meanwhile, the Florida offense made it a perfect 4-for-4 on the season for hitting above 50% success rate. It did so in an unusual way for the Dan Mullen Gators.

Team 1Q SR 2Q SR 3Q SR 4Q SR
Missouri 41.2% 12.5% 14.3% 44.4%
Florida 37.5% 50.0% 57.1% 66.7%

The early struggles are easy to see here, and the offense only got more efficient as the game went on. Mullen’s Florida teams seldom see the trend line go straight up like this. His first two squads, if they conformed to any pattern across some games, would be better in the second and fourth quarters than the first and third. This year’s team has no pattern yet, if it is to have one at all.

Efficiency by Player

Player Comp. Pct. Pass Eff. Yards/Att Sacks Pass SR
Kyle Trask 63.6% 185.4 10.5 0 51.5%
Connor Bazelak 57.1% 94.6 4.5 2 30.0%

It’s sometimes hard to come up with new things to say about Trask. He had those early issues in part to a rusty offensive line having problems, but as his protection got better, so did he. He probably should’ve taken the sack instead of trying to throw through a hit on his interception, but most college passers will do that in that situation. He’s just so good, you guys. Enjoy it while you can.

Bazelak had looked good for a redshirt freshman this year. In this game, he just looked like a redshirt freshman. Florida’s defense hassled him a fair bit and forced him to have to hit tight windows. On the latter point, he couldn’t do it often enough. You can tell the guy has potential, but he’s far from a finished product.

Player Targets Catches Yards Yards/Target SR
Kyle Pitts 7 5 81 11.6 71.4%
Kadarius Toney 6 5 60 10.0 50.0%
Trevon Grimes 5 3 33 6.6 20.0%
Jacob Copeland 3 2 67 22.3 66.7%
Dameon Pierce 2 2 45 22.5 100.0%
Malik Davis 2 2 38 19.0 100.0%
Justin Shorter 2 1 2 1.0 50.0%
Xavier Henderson 2 0 0 0.0 0.0%
Keon Zipperer 1 1 3 3.0 0.0%
Nay’Quan Wright 1 0 0 0.0 0.0%

Trask continues to show a preference for Pitts and Toney, as you’d expect. This was a good bounce back for Copeland, who had three catches against Ole Miss but only one in each of the next two games. The Gators getting to run more than 70 plays instead of fewer than 60 helps with distribution, of course.

Player Carries YPC Rushing SR
Dameon Pierce 9 4.3 55.6%
Kyle Trask 6 7.8 33.3%
Nay’Quan Wright 6 3.5 33.3%
Kadarius Toney 3 7.7 66.7%
Anthony Richardson 3 5.0 100.0%
Trent Whittemore 1 -2.0 0.0%

Pierce remains your clear RB1. Davis didn’t get a single carry after fumbling late against Texas A&M, which fits with Mullen’s general modus operandi about running backs (though Davis did have two pass targets).

I could see the athletic potential that Richardson has that made the relatively tight-lipped Florida fall camp get all kinds of leaky about his bright future. In a handful of carries he looked both bigger and quicker than Emory Jones, which is saying something.

He also looked like a true freshman who is used to clowning overmatched high school defenders, busting out gratuitous spin moves with sketchy ball security. I still don’t love the running quarterback package that removes Trask from the game, and I don’t think we’ll see Richardson at all against Georgia after that fumble.

Field Position

Team Avg. Starting Position Plays in Opp. Territory Pct. Of Total
Missouri Own 22 13 26.5%
Florida Own 31 30 49.2%

You know what doesn’t help an underdog like Missouri? Starting every drive more than ten yards farther from the end zone on average.

I will note that Missouri’s fumble shortly before the half that set UF up on the Tigers’ 30-yard-line accounts for six of the yards of difference; exclude that and Florida’s ASP moves to its own 27. Five yards is less of a big deal, though it’s always good to have a field position edge.

Finishing Drives

A trip inside the 40 is a drive where the team has a first down at the opponent’s 40 or closer or where it scores from further out than that. A red zone trip is a drive with a first down at the opponent’s 20 or closer.

Team Drives Trips Inside 40 Points Red Zone Trips Points Pts./Drive
Missouri 10 2 3 1 0 0.30
Florida 11 7 41 5 27 3.73

I told you before the game that Mizzou has been bad this year about finishing drives, specifically that they settle for far too many field goals. The trend continued with both trips inside the 40 ending in place kicking events. Those are less notable for me from a UF defensive standpoint than just two of ten Tiger drives becoming scoring opportunities. It’s a heck of a lot easier to keep a team out of the end zone if you never let them get close.

UF’s points per drive was nearly identical to the 3.80 they put up on South Carolina. Again, the early issues appear in the numbers.

Turnovers

The teams turned it over once apiece during the main part of the game. Trask’s interception came from him being hit while throwing, and a bad mesh point between Bazelak and Tyler Badie resulted in a lost fumble. Both ended in touchdowns either on the pick return or on the subsequent play. The teams also traded lost fumbles in garbage time.

Overall

The Missouri game was a lot like the South Carolina game with two main differences. One, the Gators allowed the Gamecocks a 66.7% success rate on the ground, which meant they could move the ball and score points. Two, the UF offense struggled early and got better against the Tigers but did the reverse against Carolina. The upshot of those differences is that Florida scored enough points early enough, while not allowing any offensive points, that reserves and walk ons got to have the second half of the fourth quarter.

I’m not sure which team I’d say is better between the Gamecocks and Tigers, but they’re in the same tier in the conference. Good, then, that Florida treated them both about the same way. Neither game was ever in doubt, and Florida was even shorthanded for the tilt two days ago.

The Florida offense has had better overall games, though the second through fourth quarters were about as good as they have been in any contest. The defense definitely had its best game by the numbers, though I can’t ignore Bazelak tossing bad passes and not throwing to open receivers with some on-target passes getting dropped.

Those things happened a decent amount with South Carolina’s offense too, which only emphasizes how crisp the execution was from Ole Miss and especially Texas A&M. Bazelak didn’t have an hour to throw in the pocket like Kellen Mond did, though. Welcome back, Kyree Campbell.

What does this mean for Georgia, looking ahead? Beats the heck out of me. It’s 2020. Every college football game is it’s own thing in normal circumstances, even more so this year. While I don’t know who’s better among Carolina and Mizzou, I do know UGA is far better than both of them. The Gators took care of business, but I can’t say too much more than that definitively. The film will show better where the strengths and weaknesses were, and that’s for later in the week.

David Wunderlich
David Wunderlich is a born-and-raised Gator and a proud Florida alum. He has been writing about Florida and SEC football since 2006. He currently lives in Naples Italy, at least until the Navy stations his wife elsewhere. You can follow him on Twitter @Year2