Florida will finally take the field again with Missouri coming to the Swamp tomorrow. What kind of team is Mizzou, and how might the Gators fare? I’ve got you covered.
Where Missouri’s at
It’s not hard to write a story about the Tigers that shows them making incremental progress each week in the first year under a new head coach.
In the opener they took their beating from Alabama with dignity, outscoring the Tide 16-10 in the second half of the 38-19 loss. They found their quarterback in Connor Bazelak in the second game, a 35-12 loss to Tennessee. Next they earned their first win against defending national champs LSU 45-41, and it probably shouldn’t have been that close. Then, the defense had its first great game in a 20-10 win over Kentucky.
It’s also easy to paint a picture of a middling team that has made some hay via exceptions. The SP+ system has Mizzou at 55th. They kept it as close as they did in the opener because Bama fumbled it away twice after intermission. Against anyone but Bo Pelini, they’ve scored 19, 12, and 20 points. Against anyone but Kentucky’s awful offense, they’ve allowed 38, 35, and 41 points.
The real truth is probably somewhere in between. The offense really has been on a journey, at first trying to find a quarterback to run a new system. The defense is not new, as Eli Drinkwitz retained the defensive coordinator from the prior staff, but they have dealt with players missing on the defensive line at times.
Missouri is capable of beating Florida. It wouldn’t win more than five out of ten if the teams played a series, but there’s enough there to make the game’s outcome be in doubt ahead of time.
When Florida has the ball
The Missouri defense has been best at limiting explosive plays. They didn’t allow a run of more than 18 yards against Alabama, and Mac Jones’s 10.4 yards per attempt in that game is his lowest on the season by 2.1 yards. Tennessee, LSU, and Kentucky all had fewer than 20% of their eligible plays go explosive, with the Vols and Tigers under 17% and Wildcats down at 8.3%.
Its success has turned, then, on efficiency. Both Alabama and Tennessee had success rates above the national average of around 42%. Those offenses scored in the high 30s. LSU was right around average and scored 2.2 points per drive on 11 normal series and got 17 points on drives of 25, seven, and five yards, respectively, after turnovers. Kentucky was well below average at 36.1% and didn’t run a play in the red zone; its sole touchdown was a 26-yard pass.
That pass was to Josh Ali, one of three Wildcats to have a good day against Mizzou. Passes targeting him plus rushes by Chris Rodriguez and Asim Rose combined for a success rate of 60%. All other plays went for a combined 6% success rate. Even in the Tigers’ best defensive performance, there were ways to reliably move the ball on them. Kentucky just didn’t do enough of those things.
We don’t know who will or won’t go for the Gators after their COVID-19 outbreak, but as long as Kyle Trask is available and healthy, Florida ultimately should be fine here. The Gators’ athletes are better than Missouri’s, so I have faith that Dan Mullen will get whoever’s available open and that Trask will hit them. If the Tigers pull out the win, it’ll be something more like the 45-41 final against LSU than the 20-10 result against Kentucky. I don’t see UF scoring fewer than 30 points in this one.
When Missouri has the ball
I hate to break it to you, but there is a real possibility that the frustrations of the past two games could easily come around again.
Mizzou is more efficient than explosive. Drinkwitz tries to keep things simple for his redshirt freshman quarterback, and he rarely calls on him to throw it deep. There’s a lot of handing off to a couple of running backs who’ve been around forever in Larry Rountree and Tyler Badie, and, on 3rd & medium or long, a lot of running every receiver right at the sticks.
As a result, the Tigers have been able to generate long drives. Against Alabama, they had field goal drives of 12 plays and 18 plays and ended the game on a 14-play series. Their three scoring drives against Tennessee were of 11, ten, and ten plays, respectively. They topped out at three brisk nine-play scoring drives against LSU’s sketchy defense.
And then, Kentucky. Oh, Kentucky. The Wildcats ran just 36 plays in 16:50 of possession. Mizzou ran 92 plays in 43:10, and it had series of 13, 12, 21, and 15 plays.
Those four megadrives against the Wildcats ended as follows: touchdown, field goal, turnover on downs, field goal. A lot of those long series I catalogued above also ended in field goal attempts or worse.
Mizzou, for all its ability to move the ball between the 20s, is poor at finishing drives. They have more turnovers on downs than most because Drinkwitz isn’t afraid to go for it on fourth down in a favorable situation, but their kicker Harrison Mevis has attempted eight field goals versus nine extra points so far (Evan McPherson: five field goals, 16 extra points). LSU allowed the Tigers to score 3.2 points per drive, but their next-highest mark was against UK at 2.2 per drive.
Florida has to find a way to force Missouri off the field, because if they don’t, the visitors will be content to pitch a tent, make a fire, and camp out all game. It’s a real test to see if the Gators have figured anything out about getting stops faster than they did against South Carolina and Texas A&M.
If Florida continues to keep a safety or two far away from the ball, give receivers big cushions, and rely on linebackers to cover passes in the middle of the field, it will be a long day. If the Gators play close and more aggressive as Todd Grantham indicated this week, then there’s a real chance for a defensive breakthrough. It’s up to the team to prove that promise was more than talk.