VIP Thoughts of the Week — 12/5/19 Edition

    Thoughts of the Week – FSU Week (11-30-19)

    There are some Gator fans that say that you can’t have a successful season without beating Georgia. There used to be a caveat “…unless you win the SEC title.” But we have never won the SEC or even the SEC East without beating Georgia, and with their recent resurgence, that appears to be a long-term axiom. 

    So we didn’t win the SEC, the SEC East, or beat Georgia. But in today’s scheduling world, getting to play FSU, Miami and Auburn all in the same year is a once-in-a-blue-moon season. Sweeping that troglodytic troika and winning 10+ games makes this at bare minimum a good season. Whether that constitutes a good or great year in a “regular” season depends on your personal tastes and definitions. But in Year 2 rebuilding from a complete dumpster fire program implosion, it’s a real mangling of reality to consider the 2019 season anything less than great. 

    Consider that Florida used to play all 3 of those hated blood rivals every year, but SEC expansion forced them to drop Miami in 1988, and further SEC expansion and realignment forced Auburn off the annual slate in 2003. But for the 30 years between 1958 – the first year it occurred – and 1987, Florida played all 3 on an annual basis. And in all that time, Florida only swept all 3 of them 6 times: 4 under Doug Dickey, and once each under Charley Pell and Galen Hall. Since 1987, though, the perfect storm schedule has only landed on Florida’s plate 4 times. In 2002, Ron Zook went 1-2, squeaking by Auburn in overtime and being blown out by the other two; in 2000, Steve Spurrier blew out Auburn twice (once in the SEC Championship Game) and got blown out by the other two; and in 1987, Galen Hall got blown out by all 3. 

    Now, Dan Mullen got this rare crack at it and dominated all 3 games, though only one was a blowout on the scoreboard. Couple that with a 10- or 11-win season, with only close losses to two top-4 ranked teams…in Year 2 with his janitor’s smock still on? 

    That’s got to rate as a great season, right?

    Looking Ahead

    Let’s jump ahead beyond the bowl game for a minute. Because we’ve got a long time to stew before that game kicks off. Heading into the off-season, heavy questions will focus on what Dan Mullen can and will do to boost the program to the next level. The championship level. To claim again our seat amongst the elite. 

    One of the most obvious and demonstrative moves Dan could make would be to shift or replace some of his coaching staff. After the utterly abysmal season of run blocking, right up to the final quarter of the regular season where they couldn’t even get push against a very bad FSU defense, one of the top names on the list for consideration could be offensive line coach John Hevesy. Defensive Coordinator Todd Grantham should be at the top of this list, in my opinion, but I’ve already weighted in on him in previous columns. So, to Hevesy, my untrained eye tells me he is good but not great; that he is great at getting unheralded players to play well, but not good at getting highly talented guys to play great. 

    Dan is at a possible pivot point in his UF career, where some choices in his staff could help launch us to the next level or hold us back from progress. And he is in many ways stuck between a rock and a hard race. The race being the never-ending push of the SEC cutting edge, and the rock being that age-old blockade of a head coach’s loyalty to long-term staff. 

    Dan is in that uncomfortable space. He has a staff that he cultivated at MSU, a staff that helped elevate that program to a level they had arguably never attained before. He naturally took most of them with him to UF, for many reasons, the most significant being history and familiarity: they worked great as a unit at MSU and Dan knows exactly what to expect of them, so they could hit the ground sprinting at UF. Those factors contributed mightily to Dan winning 10+ games in each of his first two years of taking over a comprehensively broken 4-win program (that could easily have been a 2-win team). 

    But now come the crossroads. Ten wins out of a patch and duct tape reclamation job is not enough anymore. Not next year and beyond. That was an amazing feat in the first two years, but now it’s time for 10 wins to be the new baseline for success. And the coaching staff needs to be capable of getting them to that level. 

    Are they?

    Using Hevesy as an example, with the descriptions I used earlier, he is solid but not spectacular. It is very doubtful Hev is going to be a guy to coach up an Outland Trophy winner, let alone an Outland Trophy winner or anyone of that caliber. And we need one of those types on the OL every year. At least one. He’ll always get strong lunch pail production out of his unit, but we need all-star production now. 

    And all that describes most of Mullen’s staff. And if they can’t coach to an all-star level, they need to recruit lights out to compensate not only for their coaching limitations but for on the field results. And Hev can’t do it. Neither can the majority of the staff. 

    That’s not good. 

    Here’s why – it’s the same as for coaching level: plugging in far-flung pieces and making it work on the fly is what you have to do in transition periods. They (Dan, mostly) were masterful at doing just that. But to sustain, let alone take the next step to elite, you have to be far more cohesive. You have to bring in your talent as freshmen, building depth as you develop, so that the entire roster is a powerful living being, like a shark’s jaw: rows of teeth growing and moving forward so that when one tooth it chipped off (injury, graduation, early NFL draft entry), the next tooth is fully formed and ready to slash flesh without missing a single beat. 

    You can’t sustain by bringing in new 1-and-done transfers by the handful every year. It has to be done through high school recruiting. It has to be done through roster progressive development, top to bottom. 

    I’ve been among the most vocal fans about how well Dan has recruited in his short time back at UF. But he has come up shockingly light on elite star players. Immediate impact players. Program-changing players. 

    Look at all the players who have made the big impacts the last two years when the bullets were live. Trask, Franks, Cece, Scarlett, Perine, Tyrie, Van, Grimes, Toney, CJ, Marco, Reese, Zuniga, Greenard, Swain, Hammond, Pitts, Moon…Only one of them is one of Dan’s recruits, a tight end. Yes, he’s done an amazing job of bringing in star impact players via transfer, but that won’t sustain an elite program. You need rows of teeth locked in, long-term, not just a few nice big ones you find on the beach that will wash away to the NFL with the next wave. 

    Compare this to, say, Urban Meyer’s first two years at Florida. Just like Dan, he leaned heavily on some great talent he inherited. But in his first 2 years he also leaned heavily on some of his own super star high school recruits. Meyer signed at least 3 players who impacted the 2006 national title team – his second year – more than any Mullen signee impacted his second year, the 2019 season. Percy Harvin, Tim Tebow and Brandon James. The most impactful Mullen high school signees so far have probably been Dameon Pierce and Kaiir Elam, and they have contributed this year about as much as I’d say Louis Murphy and a few others did off the bench in 2006. 

    The numbers may be splitting hairs, but the level of impact and talent shows an enormous gap. Yes, guys like Elam, Copeland, Zipperer, Diabate, Hopper, Bogle, Emory, etc., may become All-American level players down the road. But the immediate program-changers like Percy and Timmy, and yes a return guy like Brandon James, are not to be found in Dan Mullen’s first two signing classes. 

    On the positive side, there looks to be some of those elite, immediate impact players in the 2020 class. But is there a single program changer? A guy like Percy or Tebow? 

    Sure those are once in a lifetime type players, but that’s the kind of players that elite programs get on a regular basis. That’s one piece of how they stay elite. It works in concert with getting a majority of really good “program players” who fill most positions and push the program forward, and with a great coaching staff that can get the most out of both good and elite talent. 

    And so we are here. The coaching staff has to be like the roster of players: there can be no glaring holes. On the playing roster, you have to be either an elite star or a strong support player…or hit the transfer portal. On the coaching roster, you have to be either an elite coach or an elite recruiter…or hit the coaching carousel. If you have too many players or coaches that aren’t one or the other, you will just be spinning your wheels. 

    So what does Dan do? Stick with all the guys that got him here, or start to upgrade the ones who will never take their coaching or recruiting to the next level? And if he goes the second route, from where are those great new coaches or recruiting rain makers going to come? No elites are going to make lateral moves, so you have to hire up-and-comers on spec. It’s a gamble. A “bird in the hand” decision. And Dan could make that call on most of his assistants right now. He can’t churn them all, so does he evaluate and prioritize and start a progressive 3-year upgrade plan, and push out a couple each year? 

    Or does he hold his hand and push all his chips to the middle of the table?

    Chomps from the GC Staff & Columnists —

    ANDREW SPIVEY

    Florida has been working on DB Ethan Pouncey for months and as soon as his brother decided to transfer the Gators went after him and that’s what made the decision for both to commit to Florida easy. The Gators beat out Auburn for him.

    Florida gained a ton of ground for RB Henry Parrish this weekend and are now one of the front runners for him. Florida and South Carolina will battle to flip him from Pitt but he doesn’t sign until January.

    The Gators are even with MSU for WR Malik Heath after his official visit to Florida. Heath visits State this weekend and if the Gators can sustain momentum throughout that visit then I like Florida’s chances to flip him.

    NICK DE LA TORRE

    Let’s talk bowl games.

    The Gators are the No. 9 team in the country in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings. That’s good but the three teams I was keeping an eye on, and what happened to them, is better.

    Alabama was hit hard by the committee after its loss to auburn falling from No. 5 to No. 12. Minnesota was punished even worse, falling from No. 8 to No. 18 after its loss to Iowa.

    What does this mean for the Gators’ bowl chances?

    Florida can make it to one of three New Year’s Six Bowl games. They can go to the Sugar Bowl if Georgia beats LSU. It’s very unlikely, even with a loss, that LSU would miss out on the playoff. If Georgia wins, they’re ranked No. 4 and they would stay in. that would make Florida the highest ranked, non-playoff SEC team and would send them to New Orleans.

    The way the rankings are right now this is what the bowl games would look like.

    Playoff

    Peach Bowl:
    Ohio State vs. Georgia
    Fiesta Bowl: LSU vs. Clemson

    Rose Bowl
    Utah vs. Wisconsin

    Sugar Bowl
    Florida vs. Oklahoma

    Orange
    Virginia vs. Penn State

    Cotton
    Memphis vs. Baylor.

    The only scenario that I could see where Florida doesn’t make a New Year’s Six Bowl game would be Ohio State losing the Big Ten Championship this weekend. It may be hard to stomach but Gator fans should be rooting for (silently, of course) for the Buckeyes this weekend.

    ERIC FAWCETT

    Florida basketball has the perfect schedule at the perfect time. After starting the season without much offensive rhythm the Gators have the chance to get some valuable hours in the practice gym and iron out what they need to do to put points on the board. After last playing on November 29 their next game is December 7 and after that game they don’t play until the 17th. Of course, a lot of that will be exam time for the players, but it should still be time to re-evaluate the offense and try to become more efficient on that end. A lot of the talk around the offense has been as it relates to players buying in and adhering to roles. Ball movement is going to be stressed, especially getting it inside to Kerry Blackshear Jr. who is supposed to be the fulcrum despite not getting the ball as much as the staff would like. Their December 7th game is a road test at Butler where we’ll see how the offense has come along.

    That’s all, folks!

    All the best,
    Your friends at Gator Country
    …where it’s GREAT to be a FLORIDA GATOR!

    Raymond Hines
    Back when I was a wee one I had to decide if I wanted to live dangerously and become a computer hacker or start a website devoted to the Gators. I chose the Gators instead of the daily thrill of knowing my next meal might be at Leavenworth. No regrets, however. The Gators have been and will continue to be my addiction. What makes this so much fun is that the more addicted I become to the Florida Gators, the more fun I have doing innovative things to help bring all the Gator news that is news (and some that isn’t) to Gator fans around the world. Andy Warhol said we all have our 15 minutes of fame. Thanks to Gator Country, I’m working on a half hour. Thanks to an understanding daughter that can’t decide if she’s going to be the female version of Einstein, Miss Universe, President of the United States or a princess, I get to spend my days doing what I’ve done since Gus Garcia and I founded Gator Country back in 1996. Has it really been over a decade and a half now?