VIP Thoughts of the Week — 1/16/19 Edition

    By David Parker

    Now that the Peach Bowl is in the books and the national title game is behind us, it’s time to refocus on recruiting once again. But before kicking that off, I would like to make a few observations on the national championship game.

    *There have been many theories as to what it all means, some even as extreme as saying that the Alabama dynasty is on its way out. But as long as Saban is there, Bama will always be in the playoff hunt. What this beat down did, however, is tear down that sheen of invicibility they have been carrying around for a few years. We remember that at Florida: during the Spurrier and Meyer years, the Gators had most games half won when they took the field, just by virtue of the fact that the other team didn’t think they could beat us. That for now is gone from Alabama. So when Florida runs into them in Atlanta next year, our boys won’t think they can win; they will know they can win. 

    *One thing this game showed us is that Georgia is not Alabama. And they’re not right on the cusp of being Alabama, either. They played to the wire with them last year because Jalen Hurts faltered, and they did the same this year because of Tua’s injury. But mostly because Kirby Smart has worked with Nick Saban longer than anyone, and he knows how he thinks, strategizes and adjusts like no other coach in the business. But even if Georgia was almost Bama this year, it is still a huge distance behind Clemson. And what we saw Texas expose, Clemson emphasized. 

    *Whatever it all means, watching Alabama get beat was good for college football. Very good. And seeing them get crushed, seeing Nick Saban outcoached and come up with zero answers for 60 minutes…that was cathartic for every college football fan outside of Tide Nation. That was the lowest-rated national title game yet, because the country is sick of seeing Alabama, and even sick of seeing Clemson at this point. But don’t worry, college football fans: the Gators are coming. 

    *The margin of victory against the Crimson Tide was historic. The last thing that spanked Alabama this hard was the Civil Rights Act of 1964. 

    Splitting the Recruiting Baby

    With the advent of early signing day, like a new present to open there is a new topic over which fans can now argue. Those who are happy with the early signers and look forward to closing the class in February, point to the positives, like the fact that with 21 letters-of-intent already in the barn, the coaches can now focus all their energies and attention to the handful of spots left to fill. Those who want to lament in woe over not yet having a class that matches their Christmas wish list, point out that all hope is lost for February’s signing class because now that roughly 75% of the Power 5 targets have signed, there too few prospects left to count on any of them.

    To that little leftover humbug, I say “BAH!” Because even though it is true that the field is infinitely smaller for February than it was for ESD (early signing day), the mechanism that snatched all those free agents off the market keeps the proportions, and thus the odds in a vacuum, about the same. That is, with all the players already signed, the teams competing for the remaining targets have very far few spots left, so the competition for any one player is reduced, sometimes greatly reduced after early signing day. 

    To wit, Florida signed 21 kids on ESD, with a 22nd as good as signed as long as he has good grades to report in January. That leaves 3 to 6 spots to fill (max of 6), depending on the quality of players that want to come. Florida will go over 25 only for a great prospect, not a very good one, because the 2020 class is so much stronger than this year’s class in Florida’s main recruiting footprint. Alabama is already technically done, with 24 signed and 4 commits waiting for February. They will try to replace those three commits with better players, but if they do, those they force out are back on the market, so the net is the same. Texas A&M is also virtually done, with 23 signees and 2 February commits. Clemson is likely literally finished because they signed 27 guys on ESD. Georgia has 22 enrolled or signed, and 1 commit to sign in February, so they only have a few spots to fill. 

    So while the recruiting pressure on the remaining targets will not be any less per team, there will be fewer teams pursuing each target. So it may very well be a wash. 

    Drawing the Line

    We all know that the SEC is a line of scrimmage league. We all know that in addition to poor quarterback play, the one other non-coaching aspect of the team that can be blamed the most for the terrible performance for 8 years before Mullen’s return – is bad offensive line play. We also all know that Dan Mullen built year after year of powerful, sometimes dominating offensive lines out of 2-star and 3-star linemen at lowly Mississippi State. And we know that Dan can recruit and sign much better high school line prospects to Florida than he ever could to MSU. And we know he’s already started to at Florida. We know a lot, don’t we? 

    Well knowing as much as we do, ESD should have been a day for big smiles and celebration by looking at the offensive line signees alone. While star gazers were obsessed with the near-misses we had with a couple of 5-star linemen, some of us were reveling in a different accounting of stars. In December UF signed 5 offensive linemen who were rated a 4* by at least one of the Big 3 recruiting ranking services (and all but one of them were rated that highly by 2 or all 3 of them). Since the star system was first used by those services, in 2002, Florida has never signed more than 3 OL rated 4 stars of more. The most ever has been 3, reached only a few times through the years. 

    This may seem shocking given how many years we’re discussing and how many elite college and future NFL linemen Florida has produced during that span. But fact is, offensive linemen are by far the most underrated position players by all the recruiting services. They don’t produce exciting highlight films and thus don’t generate much buzz (and thus drive clicks), and they are one of the hardest for college coaches to evaluate and project, thus the elite program offers are more diffuse across the nation than at any other position group. This is what the ranking services use to base their rankings and star ratings, and to drive their ad revenue, so naturally offensive linemen are consistently the lowest-ranked and rated position group every year. 

    SO…the fact that a proven developer of strong offensive line talent just set a school record for the most blue chip OLs in one year – in fact, nearly doubled the record – should be warming the hearts of Gator fans everywhere in this line of scrimmage league.

    But wait…there’s more. 

    When you consider Dan went 2-for-2 last year on 4-star OL, this year’s haul makes 7 out of 9 offensive linemen in two years rated with 4 stars. I’m not a loyal star adherent by any stretch, but to have that many 4-star offensive linemen in such a short period of time is a real outlier.

    And here’s the historical context for that outlier: those 7 linemen in 2 years are also the most 4-star-or-above OLs ever signed by UF in consecutive years. The next closest is the 6 we signed in 2006 & 2007 combined, out of 7 total. And the next year we only signed 1 of 3 that were 4*s. That totaled 7-of-10 in 3 years, while Dan just got 7-of-9 in only 2 years.

    And those guys from 2006 and 2007, probably by no coincidence during Dan’s offensive coordinator days at Florida, won a national title in 2008. 

    What will the 2017 and 2018 guys win?

    Seeing Stars

    While on the topic of Dan signing more 4-star players in one position group than ever before, there was another very interesting statistical happening on ESD. Since the star system started with the Big 3 rating systems, only one time in program history has Florida ever signed a higher percentage of blue chip (that’s 4-star and 5-star) players than Dan signed a few weeks ago. A full 18 of 21 signees were a 4- or 5-star player with one of the Big 3 services. That’s an 86% blue chip rate. The only Florida class that ever beat that was the 2007 class that hit an 89% mark. Now few people would presume to favorably compare this class to that class that included 12 (yes 12!) 5-star signees, however when you have a great coaching staff that has such a stellar track record of developing talent well beyond its high school ranking, the fact that they just brought in the 2nd-highest percentage of blue chip signees in school history is a pretty big deal. Even bigger when you consider how many times this staff has turned 3-star athletes into All-Americans and NFL draft picks. 

    This looks even better when you consider that we have one 4-star commitment who will sign in February if his grades allow it, and another 4-star commit if we hold him, which would take it to 87%. Of the upwards of ten or more prospects we targeting for February’s signing day, every one of them is a 4-star or above. If we just sign 3 of those, that would bump the final blue chip percentage for the class to 89%, matching the highest in school history.

    Not bad for a coach’s first full recruiting cycle rebuilding a ship that was left for him at the bottom of the ocean.

    A Little Deeper

    Recruiting is essential for success, but coaching and development is always the key that unlocks the doors to championship halls. When you can coach and develop you are going to win, and thus you’re going to recruit well. Chicken and egg type deal on many levels. 

    But there are many more factors. Steve Spurrier had a lot of turnover on his staff in his 12 years. But overall continuity was strong because he was always there and his coaches usually stayed at least 3 years, almost a player’s full playing career. Let’s take a look at some of those factors and how they impacted Spurrier’s top rated classes. Steve signed 3 classes ranked #1: ‘92, ‘95 and ‘00. 

    The ‘92 class dominated the SEC, and was arguably the most successful team in the nation over their 5 years, with 2 national championship game appearances and 1 national title. They dominated based on a host of factors, primarily a great coaching staff that included several future head coaches and a coordinator that would go on to win a national title at another school. Almost as crucial: the class included a generational-type transcendental quarterback. 

    The ‘95 class was larger and had more highly rated players than ‘92 and was widely considered the best class in school history. It helped contribute to the last couple of championship years of the ‘92 class, but mostly as depth, with a few starters stepping up. The last three years when the class came into its own were years without any championships outside one East title in its 5th year. 

    The main differentiators between the ‘95 and ‘92 classes: coaching and quarterbacks. The staff turnover to assistants that not go on to have the same success after Florida that the previous group had (e.g., Bob Stoops was gone for the last two years of ‘95’s run, replaced by Bob Pruett, who was gently fired/urged to looked elsewhere and left division 1 football altogether, never to be a defensive coordinator again, though he was a very successful head coach at the lower division). And the Parade All-American and national player of the year signed in 1995 sadly suffered advancing bipolar disorder and never panned out. A walk-on, a Canadian “bachelor” and a part-time Tampa Bay Devil Rays baseball player took turns playing quarterback, but none of them could rise to the level of even a consistently adequate game manager. There were other holes and issues as well, with certain positions busting, like receiver and defensive line, that hurt depth – and injuries tested that depth over those last three years. But on signing day, none of these pitfalls were yet visible or predictable. 

    Then there was the class of ‘00. It was larger and had more highly rated players than ‘95 and was widely considered the best class in school history. Sound familiar? 

    The early contributors from the class of ’00 helped Florida win an SEC title in 2000 and in 2001 they were the #1 team in the nation for the first half of the season until injuries to both running backs and a nasty wind storm on the Plains of Auburn sabotaged our passing game, and we took our then-annual traditional loss to an SEC West opponent. However, the team continued to dominate everyone else until the 9/11-delayed game with Tennessee came sandwiched between the FSU game and the would-be SEC title game. Of course we all know the infamy of what happened the week before against FSU, when Darnell Dockett intentionally twisted Ernest Graham’s knee in the scrum, causing him to miss the Tennessee game, just like the Auburn game. And the outcome was the same – a close but regrettable loss. 

    The transition from Steve Spurrier, headed to Washington DC and certain NFL stardom, to Ron Zook, returning journeyman assistant and Jeremy Foley party gag, destroyed any hope the class of ’00 had of ending their college careers as successfully as rthey started. But while Spurrier and his staff were there, the class was fierce on the field and looked primed to run at another national title. 

    Once again distinguishing the successful class of ’00 from the toiling good-but-not-great years of the class of ’95: coaching and a great quarterback. The staff had more stability in Spurrier’s last couple of years, and he himself experienced a renewed energy after a few years of visibly not enjoying the game. Now, while the class of 2000 included the #1-rated quarterback in the nation, it was the signal caller from the 1999 class, Rex Grossman, who piloted those powerhouse Gator teams of 2000 and 2001. Brock Berlin could not beat him out, and when Spurrier left, so did he. 

    Urban Meyer’s championship seasons (which we can also call Dan Mullen’s first wave championship teams as offensive coordinator) also featured great coaching, solid coaching stability on the staff, and generational type quarterbacks in Chris Leak and Tim Tebow. The championships dried up and the entire program went off the tracks after the 2008 season, and there were many factors that contributed to that. But the common threads were there: impactful coaching staff churn in 2009, and bad sub-standard quarterback play in 2010. 

    This certainly is no outlier from the norm of college football, either. Just look at the last several years of national titles, and you will find great coaching and great quarterback play. This year was a perfect example: Saban and Swinney, Trevor and Tua. 

    With that in mind, the buzz word around Gainesville football offices should be staff stability, and not staff firings because some fans think that some coaches aren’t recruiting lights out. And the fact that Dan Mullen stuck it out in Starkville for 9 years tells us all we need to know about how stable the central pillar of the coaching staff will be for a long time. Whoever he has faith in to be on his staff, we can probably rest assured that he has good reason to have it. And anyone who can turn around a Power 5 program like he just did – one of only 3 coaches in the history of the sport to do so to the degree he did this year – can be trusted to make his own hiring decisions, I’d say. 

    That leaves the quarterback as he wild card in this pattern. The entire world seemed to know for a fact that after the Missouri game, Feleipe Franks’s Florida career was over. But a funny thing happened on the way to the transfer portal: Franks turned his season around in a big way, and in doing so, turned the team’s season around. I’ve written enough about Frank’s improvement in previous weeks, so suffice it to say that if he is the final piece, if he is the last cog we need to click to return to greatness…well, it sure is going to be a fun spring watching to see how much more improvement he has in him. 

    Raymond Hines
    Back when I was a wee one I had to decide if I wanted to live dangerously and become a computer hacker or start a website devoted to the Gators. I chose the Gators instead of the daily thrill of knowing my next meal might be at Leavenworth. No regrets, however. The Gators have been and will continue to be my addiction. What makes this so much fun is that the more addicted I become to the Florida Gators, the more fun I have doing innovative things to help bring all the Gator news that is news (and some that isn’t) to Gator fans around the world. Andy Warhol said we all have our 15 minutes of fame. Thanks to Gator Country, I’m working on a half hour. Thanks to an understanding daughter that can’t decide if she’s going to be the female version of Einstein, Miss Universe, President of the United States or a princess, I get to spend my days doing what I’ve done since Gus Garcia and I founded Gator Country back in 1996. Has it really been over a decade and a half now?