By David Parker
Well that certainly was an ugly game Saturday against the Tigers from Columbia. But ugly wins I will take. Especially against Missouri. Despite how bad Missouri has been as a football program since joining SEC play in 2012, the Gators are only 4-4 against the pride of the Show Me State. Show me the depression! Add in the 1966 Sugar bowl loss, where Steve Spurrier in his final game became the only player in that illustrious bowl’s history to win the MVP from the losing team, and Florida is still on the bum end of the stick against a bum program.
Was that 23-6 win ugly? Sure. But not as ugly as the 38-17 loss last year in The Swamp, or the 45-16 loss the year before with Randy freaking Shannon wearing the head coach whistle around his neck, finishing off a 4-win season. Saturday’s game was a lot prettier than the 36-17 loss in 2013, another 4-win season, or the 42-13 loss in 2014. It was even much less ugly than the 14-7 Gator win in 2012, and maybe less so that the 21-3 win in 2015, a lazy, distracted trap game after blowing out the #3 team in the country the previous week, in what was retroactively Will Grier’s Florida swan song. And Missouri was really not good in any of those years, even the two wherein they backed into the SEC title game by default of the SEC East falling apart.
Whether it’s the hamstrung nature of our program since Urban Meyer left (this series started in Will Muschamp’s second season as Florida’s head coach), happenstance matchup gaps, unfavorable schedule placement or that somehow Missouri always plays Florida many levels above its ability level each year, we always have a tough time with Mizzou.
And I think all of Gator Nation joins me in saying, much like losing to FSU in basketball, this nonsense needs to stop now. Dan Mullen’s maiden voyage against Missouri can be excused, as the team left it all on the field the week before against Georgia, and was emotionally crushed by the loss that basically beat them twice. This year, he got the “W”. Good. Fine. Well done. More of this to come, please.
But part of the reason this game was so unsatisfying was not the manner in which we won. After all, while we should have won by a huge margin, at no time in the game was the outcome ever in doubt. At no time did Gator fans have any reason to feel the least bit uncomfortable. That is another statement in a growing pile of evidence this year that we are not just headed in the right direction, but we are already at least partially restored to Florida being Florida again.
The last hurdle is always the hardest to clear, but it is easy to define: start winning all or most of the big games, and STOP losing to Georgia.
Do that, and order is restored. Do THAT, and that old Gator dominance is back, and that old Gator bounce starts to be found in our step. That old Gator smirk when you pass a fan of a rival team in the hall, knowing you don’t have to say anything, and knowing they CAN’T say anything (though FSU fans probably still will).
One of the big hurdles we had to clear to get here is beat FSU. Last year’s blowout of the Semis was sugar-sweet, but just a taste. Beating FSU is something that has to be savored over the course of many years. The coaching transition in Tallahassee is going to help widen the gap between the two programs for the next few years, perhaps the next several years if they don’t hire a grand slam pinch-hit home run, Miami Beach Belly-Flop Champion big-splash hire.
Spoiler alert: they won’t.
TRENDS
I’ll talk more about the imminent FSU battle after the bye week, so right now, let’s dabble more into the future prospects of the Gators. Here are some bullet-point trend lines for the Gators and the opponents that will or may help determine their ability to ascend to the top of the sport:
Florida: Trending UP! As unlikely as it was, given the losses in personnel to the NFL and losses of so many star players to injury throughout the year, Florida is two wins against two very beatable teams away from bettering their 2018 record. A year after improving their record by 6 games. Every pundit and most Gator fans said it was somewhere between very unlikely to impossible to match, let alone improve on the 10 wins from last year. I detailed last week how the Gators will likely be a better team next year than this year, perhaps significantly, depending on the progress of the offensive line. The offseason meme will again be that there is no way for Florida to have an even better record. But if I were you, I would not bet against it.
The East:
Georgia: Trending flat to slightly down. They are a much lesser team this year than they have been the last two seasons, and they will likely remain steady or take a small step backward next year. They lose most of their impact offensive skill players, particularly D’Andre Swift, and lose a lot on defense. They will return a great offensive line and the most overrated quarterback in the nation, with very little tested talent to throw to.
South Carolina: Trending Muschamp. This is a team that supposedly reached its pinnacle by beating Georgia between the hedges, and is going to end the season losing 5 of 6 games after that “program-changing” win. That streak includes a lone win against the worst team in the SEC, Vandy, an ugly loss to the second-worst team, Tennessee, and a home loss to Appalachian State. On Senior Day.
Missouri: Trending sideways. Like Carolina under Muschamp, this is a perpetually stagnant program. It will remain so long enough for Florida to get good enough that they won’t have to worry about them again for a long time.
Kentucky: Trending down. They had their day in the sun, and now Mark Stoops is on bolt-watch, as in bolting to a better program. Maybe FSU. Maybe not. Whatever happens, it’s bad for their recruiting and morale as they slide back to their normal waking state.
Tennessee: Trending up. The Vols will slide up a little higher in the East next year, but really only by virtue of most of the East sliding backwards past them in a slow but competitive race to the bottom.
Vanderbilt: Trending down STILL. If you thought they couldn’t get worse, go to a Vandy game in 2020. Bring a book.
The West:
LSU: Trending down. It remains to be seen whether they’ll hold onto their visionary offensive coordinator for one more year (which is the maximum they will hold him), but they will definitely be losing their transformative, transcendental quarterback. They will still be elite, or close; they will still be a bear of an opponent for Florida, as they usually are; but they will not be the juggernaut offensive machine they were this year, and it remains to be seen if their big step back in defense in 2019 will continue to head that direction in 2020.
Alabama: Trending down. Whether Tua heads to the NFL on injury recuperation spec, or returns for an even more uneven year than the injury-riddled 2019 (and who knows when he will be healthy to play again, and when he is, how healthy and how effective can he be?), the Tide offense will not be the same for the next couple years at least. Alabama will always field a ferocious defense under Saban, but it’s my belief that they are headed into at least a shirt stretch where they will be as beatable week to week as they have been since 2008. Much like LSU, still elite and probably better than LSU again on the basis of their defense, but a little more human than most of the Saban era.
Auburn: Trending down. Significantly. They lose so much on defense, it is going to leave a mark. And the Iron Bowl outcome notwithstanding (and Tua’s injury is the ONLY thing giving them a chance in that game), Auburn really minimized what they got out of this year’s game-changing defensive instrumentation. Gus Malzahn is rumored to be sniffing around the vacated Arkansas job, among others, and Auburn has been dangling the Sword of Damocles over his head for a few years now. The pomp and circumstance around the legend of Bo Nix has turned into a dirge. This will not end well.
Texas A&M: Trending flat or down. The 2019 season saw another pillar taken out of the myth of Jimbo Fisher. Next year we will see another one gone. They paid him 50 Flubjillion dollars to leave FSU and lift their program to glory and greatness, and he has not made a single scratch, let alone a dent in the rebuild progress. If Aggie fans are getting a little uncomfortable, squirming in their seats a little after this year, I imagine they will be up and pacing the living room floor at this time next year, muttering quiet renditions of Yosemite Sam outbursts.
Ole Miss, Mississippi State & Arkansas: Trending down. More specifically, trending irrelevant to Florida. They are and will remain West bottom feeders, and none of them have any pieces in place to make a surge upward in the next few years.
State of Florida:
Miami: Trending flat or down. Boy, that Many Diaz wave of excitement lasted a long time, didn’t it? While 6-4 is far from a disaster season for a first year head coach, there was no step forward this year for Miami that wasn’t cancelled out by an equal and opposite step back. Their recruiting buzz is completely gone and they are now in flounder mode. I don’t expect Miami to go full Vandy or anything, but they will be of no concern for Florida on the field or the recruiting trail again for a very long time.
FSU: Trending down. STILL. If you thought Willie Taggart was bad…how bad do you think the next guy will be? The hope is that WT did more damage in just under 2 years than Will Muschamp did in just under 4, and Jim McElwain did in just under 3. The hope goes further that the next coach will continue the damage. Willie Taggart was the result of the first coaching search FSU has had to do since 1975. How much could they have learned in 2 years?
UCF: Trending flat or down. Yes, they bear watching, but they have started to slip back down to earth this year. Yes, their 3 losses have been close to respectable, but not good opponents, but their margin for losses of any kind are razor thin. To keep making inroads into Power 5 land, they have to go undefeated every year, unless they get 1 really impressive loss against a top-third P5 team (not Pittsburgh, Cincinnati and Tulsa).
The Nation:
Who scares you outside of the SEC? Clemson is not going to go away, and it looks like Ohio State may actually be a better program without Urban Meyer. But outside of those two, I don’t see anyone else who will threaten to bump a Florida team from a playoff spot as an SEC champion or even a 1-loss SEC runner-up in the next several years. Oklahoma keeps repeating the same mistakes and problems every year. Ditto for Penn State. They just lost to Minnesota and their only claim to fame since James Franklin took over is making Jim Harbugger their female dog (line forms to the left). Oregon is getting better, but it’s hard to see anyone from the PAC challenging the southeastern powers and Ohio State. Texas is still not close to right. All in all, the national field is as wide open as ever for a young blood program like Florida to stake a claim.
That is the goal in 2020 or 2021. It will be fun to watch.
Chomps from the GC Staff & Columnists —
ANDREW SPIVEY
Florida’s pursuit of a running back is in much better shape now than it was a few weeks ago. Mississippi State commit Joquavious marks and Jaylan Knighton are both interested in Florida and both are expected to take official visits to Gainesville.
At receiver the Gators are expected to host WR Bryan Robinson and Mississippi State JUCO WR commit Malik Heath for the FSU game as the Gators would love to add at least one of those guys to the class as they continue to go after Xzavier Henderson.
Despite a struggling offensive line, the Gators haven’t been able to sell early playing time much in recruiting and are still looking for another tackle in the class. At this time the Gators do not lead for anyone but I expect the board to expand more in the coming weeks.
NICK DE LA TORRE
There’s not a lot going on this week but I do have a couple of notes.
First, about senior bowl games. I’ve been told that four players from Florida will get Senior Bowl invitations. So far Lamical Perine, Jon Greenard and Jabari Zuniga have been invited and have accepted theirs. Van Jefferson and Josh Hammond have accepted invitations to the East/West Shrine game, they didn’t get Senior Bowl invitations. I have been told, and was told early on in the season that Tommy Townsend would get an invitation. He hasn’t been formally given one yet but would accept it when it comes.
This week the players are enjoying some lighter practices. It’s a bye week so it’s back to working on things that they need to get better at and, maybe for John Hevesy, looking for five new offensive linemen. I doesn’t take being an insider to see that they’re bad but I am surprised that Hevesy hasn’t been able to get more out of the group. I know he’s very frustrated with where they are and how they have progressed or, better, their lack of progression. There will be some changes in personnel on the line and the freshmen need to be ready to play right away because they’re going to get some looks.
I know there has been some hype around a rumor about black jerseys. As of right now I haven’t been told anything that would indicate black jerseys next Saturday against Florida State, but I’m intrigued and will continue asking around with the people that would know that sort of information. I know it’s a divisive topic, but if the players and recruits like them, do it.
DAVID WUNDERLICH
If you read my advanced stats review of the Florida-Missouri game, you saw that I am done wondering when Florida’s offensive line will improve at run blocking. It won’t. Not this year. Last year’s line started off rough and got better. This years’ just hasn’t.
Four of the five starters will return next year. Three will be seniors. I hate to say this about veteran players who’ve given four or five years to the program, but it’ll be a bad sign if all three of them start again next year. Stone Forsythe and Jean Delance get beat by athletically superior defensive front players that I don’t think another year’s worth of practice will make them appreciably better. Brett Heggie has been way more up-and-down this year than I would’ve expected, and while I think he does have a decently high ceiling, it’s hard to watch him look good enough one week and like a liability the next.
Richard Gouraige has been good at guard, but he’s a tackle and needs to play there longterm. Ethan White looks more than capable of taking over one of the tackle spots. Heggie probably will start somewhere given his experience. Whether that’s guard or center, we won’t know for a while. Given his history with missing games, second good player needs to emerge in the middle.
Griffin McDowell was signed as the center of the future in 2018, but a scooter accident robbed him of spring practice. He has played on special teams in every game this year, for what its worth. Kingsley Eguakun was the 2019 signee who played center in spring, so he’s another option. If one or both of them can be solid, they could allow Heggie to remain at guard.
The other tackle spot is an unknown. Michael Tarquin is the top reserve tackle at this point, but he’s only played at the end of the three big blowouts on his way to a redshirt. Wardrick Wilson was the other top tackle from last year’s signing class, but the Bahamas native hasn’t been able to enroll due to a visa issue. He would be able to play next year if the issue clears up, but he’d have lost a year of playing, conditioning, and development. Issiah Walker, a blue chip 2020 tackle commit, is probably more likely than Wilson to get a real shot.
There have been rumors, the accuracy of which I can’t speak to, that Mississippi State’s Stewart Reese wants to grad transfer to Florida to reunite with Dan Mullen and John Hevesy. He’d be a real boost as a senior with three years of starting experience. He was rough at right tackle as a redshirt freshman in 2017, but he’s since moved inside and has blossomed into a good player. With his ability to play both guard and tackle, he’d provide flexibility in addition to quality.
We’ll see about any other grad transfers, but we know Mullen was on the market for some last year even if he didn’t land any. Given what we’ve seen this fall, they can take all the help they can get.
ERIC FAWCETT
Florida basketball is in a bit of a tailspin going from #6 in the AP Poll to unranked in 2 weeks, a fairly unprecedented fall. All the talk is about their inability to score and that will be something to watch for as they head to Charleston for the Charleston Classic where their first game is, perhaps comedically, Saint Joseph’s. This is funny, and perhaps unfortunate, because Saint Joseph’s just comfortably beat UConn, the team that Florida fell to. The Gators are going to be tightening up their rotation and the question of who stays in and who falls out will be a topic of discussion this week and the battle in the front court is most interesting. Dontay Bassett, a sparingly used redshirt-junior, is someone I’m expecting to jump in the rotation ahead of fellow centres Gorjok Gak and Jason Jitoboh.
That’s all, folks!
All the best,
Your friends at Gator Country
…where it’s GREAT to be a FLORIDA GATOR!