In case you missed it last week, by popular demand, Gator Country is refreshing one of its favorite features, this time in a weekly cadence to get everyone over hump day and rolling into the next Gator game day. Ray (Solari), in his everlasting wisdom (?), assigned the bulk of the newsletter to me, David Parker.
Most of the thoughts will revolve around our beloved Gators, of course, but many will stray about the field of college football, as well as other ports of call along the pop culture spectrum.
Following that, you’ll find additional snippets and tidbits from the Gator Country staff and columnists. Sometimes it’s factual stuff, sometimes it’s insider stuff, sometimes it’s something else entirely. But it’s always relevant to the Florida Gators!
We’ll be mailing this out every Wednesday morning just in time with your coffee, tea, or whatever voo-doo you use to get your day started.
Hope you all enjoy. -PD
Thoughts of the Week… and more
Well that certainly was a switch, wasn’t it? Isn’t Gator Nation the place where fans complain about landslide wins because we didn’t score enough points or look flashy enough? And here we are reveling in a win that didn’t crack the 14-point barrier, and the only touchdown was scored on a trick play pass from a wide receiver.
Something must be brewing. Maybe we remember all too well the wild ride we’ve been on. You know the one…you remember the feeling…when there’s no earthly way of knowing which direction we are going; there’s no knowing where we’re rowing, or which way the river’s flowing…well it looks like Scott Stricklin and Dan Mullen finally shouted, “Jane get us OFF this crazy thing!” And…
We’re here.
Knowing What We’re Knowing
So we’ve glimpsed the Chocolate Room and we want the lifetime supply of chocolate, but we know we have to weather some storms, steal a little Fuzzy Lifting Drinks and have patience. And this requirement of the Great Gator Rebuild was in sharp focus Saturday night as the Gators clung to a narrow 4-point lead and crept closer and closer to icing the game. Like you, I badly wanted to stick it into the end zone on the last Gator drive Saturday night to put the game away, but that would have taken more risk than Dan was willing to take. Running a direct snap “wildcat” on 4th-and-a-foot was a risk he was willing to take, because he knew the defense hadn’t given up a touchdown drive all night. But he was not willing to loft the ball to the end zone that time or on the ensuing fourth down, because he also knew (or at least trusted our defense enough to believe) that the only way we could lose in that spot was if we made a huge mistake and gave them a quick defensive score. And he refused to put our kids in a position to make that huge mistake.
That’s knowing your personnel. That’s knowing the pulse of the game. That’s knowing how college football works. That’s something we haven’t seen in Gainesville since 2009.
Dan the Difference Maker
As it was mentioned a million times by the media last week, this was the first time UF played MSU in 8 years, and they won’t play again for another 8 years. But the depth of the irony was not given justice when the talking heads stopped there. In 2010, Dan’s rookie season at MSU, it was Florida coming off a 13-win year in which they spent all but one week of the regular season ranked #1, and had SEC title (and thus national title) aspirations; MSU was unranked, just 5-7. This year, it was Dan’s rookie season at a new school again, and again it was the other team that was ranked, had been ranked for 12-straight weeks, and had SEC title (and thus playoff) aspirations coming into the season; UF was unranked, coming off a 4-win season
More than anything, this throws strong emphasis on the fact that Dan is a difference maker. Not just in this head to head series, but in general. He is literally a guy who can take his’n and beat your’n, and take your’n and beat his’n. Because he just did it.
Again.
Axiomatic Static
One of the most promising things about the win in Starkville was the way the Gators went against the grain of so many football axioms. Break one or two of them and you’re a stalwart of overcoming setbacks. Break as many as Florida did Saturday night, and well, it’s eye-catching.
All the axioms were paraded down Main Street last week by fans and media alike, and for good reason. They usually are the keys to victory, especially for an unranked underdog playing a ranked team on the road in a hostile environment. But not this time:
1) Whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game. Nope. Florida lost that battle 0-1, and the one turnover was a bad one – an interception at midfield, on the first possession of the second half, already trailing 6-3. Both teams were in desperate need of seizing momentum out of the locker room to set the tone for the new half of play. However, after a walk-in touchdown bomb was dropped, Florida dismissed the MSU offense form the field after just 3 plays and 3 yards.
2) The most disciplined team will win (i.e., the team with the fewest penalties). Not even close. The Bulldogs only had two flags thrown their way, for a piddly 15 yards. Florida had that many penalties before their 4th snap of the game. The Gators had to deal with more yellow laundry than a bed-wetter’s dry cleaner. In full, 11 penalties for 90 yards.
3) The team that wins the rushing battle wins the war. Nope. Though it was close. Missy State ran for 144 yards from scrimmage, while Florida was close behind with 140. The net yards in fact favored Florida 118-104, but that’s only because the sack yards are factored in, which I don’t think should count in rushing or passing yards – just total yards or team yards. Florida only had 10 yards subtracted with sacks, while State lost 39. That’s right 39 yards on 6 sacks. Bang.
4) When two teams are evenly matched, special teams will make the difference. Not Saturday night. Both teams were 2-2 in field goal attempts, punting was virtually even, there was only a half-yard advantage for MSU in kickoff average, and a yard and a half edge to MSU in kickoff return average (not surprising, given how few kickoffs there were).
5) He who has the best defensive tackles, wins. Nope. As part of what is considered one of the strongest defensive lines in the country, both MSU tackles are returning starters, and Jeffery Simmons was a preseason All-SEC selection and on the Nagurski Trophy Watch List. As an extension to the entire defensive line, both ‘Dog starting defensive ends return from last season (one started at linebacker last year), and of them Montez Sweat is also preseason All-SEC and on the Nagurski Trophy Watch List. The three MSU starters on the D-line from last year in the abandoned 3-4 alignment totaled 20.5 sacks. All of Florida’s returning defensive tackles totaled just 2 sacks last year. All the returning defensive line players for Florida combined – starters, backups, tackles and ends – only totaled 13.5 sacks last year.
However, there were at least a couple of football axioms that were demonstrative in the win:
1) Win on third down, win the game. Yes. Florida’s offense was not exactly a show-stopper on third down, but converted on a decent 36% of their chances (5-of-14). The Gators were also 1-1 on 4th down, for a very good 40% combined rate. Conversely, the Dogs went a paltry 17% (2-for-12) on 3rd down, and 0-for-2 on 4th down, for a miserable 14% combined conversion rate. The second half saw an even bigger Florida advantage, with the Gators converting 33% of 3rd and 4th downs, and MSU only successful on 12.5%, converting just one time the entire second half on 3rd of 4th down. And that one conversion was a yardstick special, as the ‘Dogs got about a yard and a half gain on 3rd-and-1 midway through the 3rd quarter.
2) Win the time of possession, wear out the competition in the second half. This came to pass, but it didn’t look that way early in the game. MSU held a 3-minute advantage in time of possession in the first half, and it felt like a lot longer. Given MSU’s reliance on the running game, it was a big concern that the ‘Dogs would wear down Florida’s front and pull away in the 4th quarter. But Florida turned all that around in the second half, winning the TOP war after halftime by over 10 minutes. That’s the result of all those 3rd down stops on defense and play calling on offense that stretched the MSU defense from sideline to sideline to cover all those bubble screens.
Knowing Tendencies
The announcers rightly pointed out that Florida Defensive Coordinator Todd Grantham had a habit of sending the house on a jailbreak blitz on 4th downs or 3rd downs when the game or the lead is on the line. He held to form Saturday night, and had MSU coaches anticipated this tendency, they could have burned the Gators and walked out of Cowbell Central with a “W”.
To wit, the Gator defense sent 8 rushers after the quarterback on that final game-deciding 4th down, leaving 3 defensive backs to cover 4 receivers. On the right side, they had 2-on-1 against Florida’s CJ Henderson. ‘Dog quarterback Fitzgerald could have easily burned the defense for a game-tying touchdown if he had audibled a hot route to one of his two receivers on the right, and flicked it to him quickly. But he either didn’t see Florida safety Donovan Stiner visibly loading up for the blitz attack, or simply wasn’t prepared to audible. Even if there was no pre-snap recognition or audible to a hot route, after the ball was snapped, the MSU slot receiver was running wide open and waving his hands for the ball (as Henderson, the only Gator defender left on that entire half of the field, went with the outside receiver). Had he seen this, he could have tossed a short pass to him and he would have waltzed into the end zone untouched. But Fitz was inexplicably locked into his two man-covered receivers on the left side of the field, and never looked away from them, before or after the snap.
If Fitz had any field recognition at all, he knew that Stiner was coming. Heck, even the color commentator saw it coming so far in advance that he drew a telestrator arrow from Stiner to the backfield, right through the lane through which he was about to run. And when even the booth knows what is about to happen, the quarterback – and certainly the coaches on the sidelines or in the coaches’ box overhead – should know, too.
Whatever the case was, Fitz was focused only on the play as called, and only on the primary receiver in that set play. And he was a deer in the headlights when Stiner crossed the line of scrimmage. This brings to my mind the far more obvious evidence on this play of knowing tendencies. I am guessing that Mullen and Grantham knew this was exactly how Fitz would read the defense and react to the blitz, having coached him for a few years. They knew he was going to be glued to the called play, that he was not going to recognize the blitz look, and/or that he was not going to have the presence of mind to sidestep the blitz. Whether one, two or all three things, I have no doubt that Mullen and Grantham knew exactly what to expect from Fitz on that play, against that blitz package. And that’s why they called it.
Had MSU head coach Joe Moorhead or Luke Getsy done their homework on Grantham, they would have known to expect this all-out blitz and they would have called for a quick slant or out on the vacated side of the field, or at least prepared Fitz for the contingency of a hot route pass. But clearly Moorhead needs Moor experience and Getsy just doesn’t Gets it. On the Florida side, though, the homework was done. The decision to go with this blitz had been put in place by the Gator coaches since mid-week situational planning for this game.
Isn’t it great to have this level of preparation in the Gator coaching staff’s arsenal once more?
Round the world and home again. That’s the sailor’s way!
Music of the Week
Going old school hard rock for how we rocked the ‘Dogs old school Gator style. What else could I pick this week but Donovan Franken-Steiner?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8f-Qb-bwlU
Chomps from the GC Staff & Columnists —
ANDREW SPIVEY
WR Jacob Copeland could make his debut this weekend after he was fully cleared this week for practice.
This weekend is a huge recruiting weekend and really big for WR Elijah Higgins who will take his official visit to Florida this weekend. Higgins has family in Florida and the Gators are trying to make up ground on Stanford for Higgins.
Overall this will be the biggest visitors list for Mullen and with the expected atmosphere in Gainesville, this could be a turning point for Mullen and recruiting.
BTW, my opinion on the LSU game for Dan Mullen is it can be like Urban Meyer’s first year against FSU where the game helped boost the recruiting to one of the top classes in the country. While I don’t think Florida will be top five this year, this game could boost them to have one of the best in the SEC or close to it.
NICK DE LA TORRE
First, I wasn’t able to officially confirm it at the editing of this newsletter but I believe the Gators are very close to completely selling out their game vs. LSU this weekend.
This is a game that if you had asked me last week I wouldn’t have said Florida would win. After watching Florida last week and watching LSU film I’m very confident Florida will be able to pressure Joe Burrow Saturday. I’m not sold on either of LSU’s offensive tackles, just as David Wunderlich said last week against Mississippi State. Florida feasted on them and I think we see that again Saturday.
To me, this is going to be another grind it out football game like last week was. I can tell you that the players that were on the team last year took that loss hard and it’s motivating them this week. A lot of them have told me that they think about it a lot and they are using it as motivation this week.
DAVID WUNDERLICH
As each game goes by, Feleipe Franks shows some improvement. He had a bad game with his reads against Kentucky, but against Colorado State, his reads were nearly flawless. He has been forcing a lot of sideline throws to Van Jefferson whether Jefferson has been open or not, but he used the middle of the field a lot more against Mississippi State.
As Franks fixes some issues, though, others crop up. As he was using the middle of the field more against the Bulldogs, he was sometimes not seeing linebackers dropping back into coverage. That happened both on his interception and another pass that was tipped and almost picked. His next frontier of progress appears to be keeping track of those dropping linebackers as he continues to use the middle of the field more. It’s fun to watch Franks progressing from one game to the next. He’s not a finished product, but it’s possible to watch him getting more polished as time goes along.
ERIC FAWCETT
The Gators got a big-time commitment on Monday with Omar Payne deciding to stay in-state with Florida. Payne is a monster in the paint and the Gators really needed a big time recruit there. After already landing point guard Tre Mann in the class it’s looking like the 2019s could be a special group.
UPDATE: Just last night highly touted Small Forward Scottie Lewis committed to the Gators over Kentucky…
The Gators have a good one in Mike White! After landing Tre Mann, Omar Payne, and now Scottie Lewis, the Gators have a top-10 class that’s as good as any of the top classes Billy Donovan was able to pull. Lewis, the 11th ranked player in 2019, adds major legitimacy on the recruiting trail and secures them as a landing spot for elite players. All is well in Florida basketball land!
That’s all, folks!
We’ll send you off with our photo of the week below. Until then, see you in your inbox next Wednesday. : )
All the best,
Your friends at Gator Country…where it’s GREAT to be a FLORIDA GATOR!
