College football in the state of Florida took a few more steps forward into being real on Saturday. We even got a little bit of connectivity despite the relatively small number of games on the year and the near-absence of non-conference games. Let’s start with the team that was highest-ranked on the day of play.
The final score of UCF’s 49-21 win over Georgia Tech is a little misleading. GT scored a touchdown to pull within 28-21 a couple minutes into the fourth quarter. The Knights had a lead of about 50 in total yards gained at that point, which is noticeable but not monumental. Quite like the score, really.
Then, the Yellow Jackets just fell apart down the stretch. Their defense allowed three consecutive touchdown drives and, including the clock-killing series at the end, 203 yards in the final 13:12. The Tech offense turned it over on downs after gaining 38 yards in seven plays on their first drive. QB Jeff Sims then threw a pick on the first play of the next drive, and a receiver fumbled after a reception on the fourth play of their final series. Sims very much played the part of the talented true freshman, throwing for 244 yards and leading the team in rushing for the second straight week while tossing two picks and losing a fumble. GT had five turnovers in total.
Georgia Tech is our one bit of connective tissue among the Florida teams so far. This is, of course, because it beat FSU 16-13 back on the 12th. It’s important not to draw too much from one or two games, but this is all we have, so let’s rush head first into what is surely a too-small sample size, shall we?
Complicating the comparison are the players who were missing against UCF. Last year’s leading rusher Jordan Mason was out, and he had 55 yards and a score against the Seminoles a week ago.
More pressingly, they were without DE Curtis Ryans. He was a major factor for the Jackets’ defense in their win, sacking James Blackman twice and forcing two fumbles. He had a number of pressures beyond that and generally was a big disruptor all over. I don’t think Ryans is the difference between winning and losing, but GT probably doesn’t lose by three scores with him out there.
FSU was better at holding Tech to field goals, but the Knights’ offense was much better at moving the ball. Even before the 200-yard outburst in the fourth quarter, UCF had already rolled up more than 450 yards. The Seminoles managed just 307 in the entire game. UCF’s Dillon Gabriel threw for more than 100 yards more than FSU gained in total.
The AP writeup of the game quotes Gabriel as taking a bit of a shot at the school in Tallahassee: “You saw what happened last week. I guess you can say we’re the best team in Florida.” Well, the AP Poll would disagree, even excluding those who haven’t played.
Despite the late deluge to put away Tech, UCF saw Miami (FL) jump them in the rankings of record. That’s because the Hurricanes surged past then-No. 18 Louisville 47-34.
After Miami cruised past UAB, I wasn’t sure of what to make of them. The offensive scheme is an upgrade, as is D’Eriq King behind center. However, the way UM beat the Blazers was pretty standard for any P5 team facing that squad. It was not significantly different than how App State beat UAB in their bowl last year.
Now, after beating a ranked Louisville team, I’m still not 100% sure what to make of them. King is still terrific, but he also got to feast on some truly terrible defensive breakdowns. It takes years to overhaul a defense decimated by Bobby Petrino’s recruiting, and the Cardinals aren’t that far into the process.
UL did outgain Miami on the night, but that was in part due to them gifting short fields by turning it over three times to the Hurricanes’ none. UM was better on a per-play basis.
Still, it was those miscues — two of which happened in Miami territory — plus a turnover on downs on the plus side of the field that kept the Cards from keeping up on the scoreboard. Yes, good on Miami’s defense for coming up with those, but those were three potential scoring opportunities snuffed out in a 13-point win.
Is Miami or UCF the better team? I don’t know. I can’t say I really care too much. They’re playing for second place to a team that hasn’t yet played, after all, and I don’t mean FIU or FAU.
There is a great chance for Florida to definitively stake its claim as the top program in the state again. After what I’ve seen so far, the Gators should do just that unless there are real COVID-related problems to come.
FSU is a real rebuild still, as they don’t appear to have made much progress over the two years Willie Taggart was there. Especially given how many quality defenders are seniors or draft eligible, I don’t think there will be the customary second-year bump for Mike Norvell even if one of his 2020 quarterback signees pans out.
Miami is better, but it isn’t all the way there yet. Louisville exposed the defense some, and the offense is tremendously dependent on King. He’s a great one-year band aid, but the program is going to have to keep running on the transfer treadmill for there not to be some kind of drop off after he leaves.
UCF is still doing its UCF thing, beating bad teams by big margins and talking afterwards. Perennial top 25 program? At this point, absolutely. A real playoff contender? No, not really.
But Florida is a real playoff contender, at least as long as it plays up to its potential. The best team in the state has not yet played, and thankfully, that’ll change this weekend.