Georgia Southern needed all 60 minutes to hold off the Campbell Camels 27-26 on Saturday night. The Fighting Camels scored a touchdown with 15 seconds to go but failed on the two-point conversion and couldn’t recover the onside kick.
Why do I start with this game of all things? Georgia Southern had a bit of a down year by its own standards last year but is generally one of the better G5 teams. Campbell hovers around .500 in the FCS. It shouldn’t have been close.
Yet, the Eagles were down a stunning 33 players due to injuries, suspensions, coach’s decision, and, yes, COVID-related issues.
Welcome to football in 2020.
Not to be outdone, Kansas was down almost 40 players. The Jayhawks promptly fell behind Coastal Carolina 28-3 at the half on the way to a 38-23 loss. It was one of a few results in what was an awful day for the Big 12 outside its headliners of Oklahoma and Texas.
Louisiana-Lafayette scored 21 unanswered in the second half to down No. 23 Iowa State 31-14. It was the Ragin’ Cajuns first ever road win over a ranked team. Arkansas State used some last-second heroics to eke out a 35-31 win over Kansas State. Texas Tech needed to deny a two-point conversion late after allowing a seven-play, 96-yard drive to FCS Houston Baptist to win 35-33.
Perhaps meaningful, perhaps not, but Arkansas State and Houston Baptist had already played a game before their tussles with Big 12 opponents. They were able to work out a few things after the offseason with the least amount of practice in decades. Iowa State had zero COVID positive tests as a team and were also playing a team with a 0-0 record going in, so it has no real excuse.
To use a math-y term, we’re in for a high variance season. The range between the best and worse possible performances for everyone is wider than it’s been before. Some teams can focus better than others. Some teams prepared better than others. We might see a P5 team completely lose the plot in the second half like Iowa State, or watch a team get trucked because it didn’t practice tackling like Navy on Labor Day.
And, we might just see some awful performances from teams in their first years in new systems. At least, that had better be the alibi for Florida State after its 16-13 opening game loss.
Georgia Tech was bad last year. Really, really bad. The offense was on the struggle bus since it was trying to transition from away the triple option. That’s mostly forgivable. However, the defense crumbled away towards the end of Paul Johnson’s tenure, leaving Geoff Collins not much to work with on either side of the ball.
The Yellow Jackets didn’t get a whole lot better over time either. While they did lose to Virginia by just five and beat an eventual 4-8 NC State in November, they also lost 45-0 at home to an average Virginia Tech team in between those performances.
On Saturday night, GT looked like a better team in many respects. They outgained the Seminoles 438-307, with a 7.9-to-4.4 edge in yards per pass attempt. They did it behind a true freshman quarterback in Jeff Sims, who decommitted from FSU shortly after Mike Norvell’s hire.
In other words, it could’ve been worse. Selected early drives for the Yellow Jackets include:
- 11 plays, 53 yards, INT
- 11 plays, 74 yards, FG miss
- 8 plays, 46 yards, INT
- 3 plays, 1 yard, FG miss
The picks were pretty heinous, the kind that true freshmen used to getting away with anything in high school throw if they start their first college game. The field goal misses were both blocked, and GT had an extra point blocked later on. Again, we’re in for a high variance season, and weirdness could pop up anywhere. We saw Austin Peay play a game without all three of its long snappers, and now we’ve seen a Georgia Tech team that apparently hadn’t prioritized place kick blocking in its abbreviated preseason practice.
The second half was almost a perfect “this can’t be happening” sequence for FSU. The first drive was promising but ended with a punt on 4th & 24 thanks to a hold and a sack. GT then went 80 yards in 14 plays — the triple’s aesthetic isn’t entirely dead, even if the playbook is different — to cut the lead to 10-7. Another penalty stalled a promising FSU drive, and the Seminoles had to settle for three. The Jackets then ground out another touchdown drive (8 plays, 72 yards) to tie it at 13.
FSU’s next drive ended after James Blackman fumbled on the second of consecutive sacks. GT got a free three points out of the exchange to take the lead. The ensuing drive saw FSU faced with a 4th & 3 outside field goal range — and they false started. On 4th & 8, Blackman fumbled it away again. On the last chance the Seminoles had, Blackman had to get rid of it too early with a blitzer in his face. The ball hit the ground, completing the four-and-out.
You should have noticed a theme between the sacks, hold, false start, and pressure. Yep: the FSU offensive line still is pretty bad. They allowed three sacks. They only had the one hold but false started four times. I can only guess how many pressures they gave up. Georgia Tech has some promising guys up front — sophomore DE Curtis Ryans was a terror — and there were a some injuries during the game on FSU’s side. However, the Seminole line is just dreadful still, especially if anyone of the top line guys miss significant time.
Maybe things would’ve been better had FSU gotten more than three spring practices in. It would’ve been hard for them to be worse. The defense was supposed to be a strength, particularly up front, but Sims didn’t get nearly as much pressure as Blackman did. If Sims had just thrown it away instead of tossing bad picks directly to defenders, the Jackets could’ve won comfortably.
I don’t know how much to extrapolate from this first set of games. There’s so much potential for variance out there, it’s probably prudent to take nothing specific. Every good performance will be good in a lot of the same ways; every bad performance will be bad in its own unique ways.
I will say I won’t be surprised if Ole Miss is a complete disaster when Florida plays them in two weeks. They weren’t very good to begin with last year, especially on defense, and the offense just hasn’t had that much time together. It’s a common fall camp trope that defenses tend to be ahead of offenses because offenses need timing and defenses can usually count chaos and disorder as friends.
Maybe the Rebels won’t be that bad and will push the Gators some. Anything really is possible this year. However, I am putting even less stock in a team with a new head coach and coordinators. Practice really does count, and losing the spring really was a huge deal. All the better for UF, I guess. Just stay away from betting counters this fall. Predictability is out the window.