The release of the preseason polls sparked another round of national media gawking at Florida’s schedule. I’m sure you’re tired of hearing about it by now, but I do have a couple of relatively new things to mention here.
First, the scribes from outside the Gator beat finally found a new angle aside from, “I can’t believe how tough that is”. Namely, it’s that UF can be one of the great spoiler teams this season. No one has more chances at defeating a College Football Playoff contender than Florida does simply because it’s playing so many of them.
I don’t love the idea of a team I like being a spoiler. It defines the team in terms of its opponents rather than itself.
But, there’s no way around the fact that UF will have to upset someone, based on today’s rankings, in order to merely make a bowl game. Eight opponents have a number next to their names right now, but Florida doesn’t.
One more of this year’s foes, Kentucky, came in ahead of the Gators in the “also receiving votes” category. UK got three points to Florida’s zero in the AP Poll, while the ‘Cats got 12 points to the Gators’ 11 in the Coaches’ Poll. UCF also got four points in the Coaches’ Poll, so only Mississippi State and FCS Samford failed to receive votes in either poll among this year’s opponents.
But anyway, I want to reiterate a point I’ve made a few times this offseason: Florida might win some games it’s not expected to according to preseason expectations without actually pulling upsets. Or, in the new terminology, without being a spoiler.
I think it was Yahoo Sports’s Ross Dellenger, formerly of SI, who marveled at the Gators finishing the season with five straight games against a combined four top ten teams plus No. 13 LSU. I do think there will be multiple top ten teams in there with Georgia and Texas. The Longhorns may have lost a couple of very good running backs in fall camp, but ultimately they’ll probably be fine as long as their interior defensive line doesn’t fall off too far.
But, do keep in mind that preseason polls can be off. Sometimes by a lot. I used to do an annual feature years ago predicting which teams in the preseason AP Poll top ten were the most likely to fall out of the poll. The theme worked because there was almost always one team, and sometimes more than one, that would indeed finish the season unranked.
Last year’s preseason AP Poll was one of the better ones. Six of the top ten teams went on to finish in the top ten. Two more of them were close, with No. 5 LSU finishing twelfth and No. 7 Penn State finishing thirteenth. No. 9 Clemson at least finished ranked, coming in twentieth in the final vote.
But then there was preseason No. 6 USC. The Trojans have one of the most celebrated head coaches in the game, and they returned reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams. Not only did they end the year outside the rankings, but the last time they appeared in the top 25 was in the poll following the games of October 28. They lost a shootout with Washington on November 4, never to be seen in the poll again.
Like I said, Georgia and Texas probably are true top ten teams this year. But how sure are we that others are?
One thing that made 2023 so special for Lane Kiffin, and Ole Miss for that matter, is that there wasn’t a puzzlingly bad loss. The Rebels dropped their games against Alabama and Georgia, but they ran the table the rest of the way.
Are you willing to bet that Kiffin can do that two years in a row? In 2022, he lost to a mediocre Arkansas team. In 2021, he lost to a Bryan Harsin Auburn team. In 2020, which admittedly was both a weird year and Kiffin’s first in Oxford, he lost to a bad Arkansas team. In that case, it wasn’t a week where the team was covid ravaged and short 20 players or whatever. They just completely bungled the game and lost to an inferior opponent.
I don’t think 2024 Florida will be bad, but it is reasonable to project Ole Miss as being the better team. The Rebels are top-heavy on the roster after splurging for starters in the portal for years while neglecting high school recruiting some. If Ole Miss is down some key players by November 23, the Gators could absolutely win if they themselves aren’t injury plagued and/or playing for an interim coach. And that would probably be enough, when combined with other games on the schedule, to keep the Rebels out of the final top ten.
FSU is also, barely, a preseason top ten team at No. 10. There seem to be a lot of people convinced that Mike Norvell has established himself as a top coach based on a long roster rebuild peaking last year. Maybe, but I am not so sure. I don’t think they can replenish what they lost to the NFL in one year, and I don’t think DJ Uiagalelei is a difference-maker.
I don’t know if FSU will fall all the way out of the rankings, but I don’t think they’re tenth-in-the-country good. And if advanced stats ratings SP+ (FSU 12th, UF 23rd) and FEI (FSU 19th, UF 29th) are generally right about Florida and FSU’s quality, the Gators beating the Seminoles just wouldn’t be all that big an upset.
Remember, “ranked” doesn’t matter in the preseason or even really on game day. “Ranked” matters at the end once all the games have been played, and we’re months away from knowing that.