Even as more and more states open more and more up and other topics take over the news cycles, the COVID-19 pandemic hasn’t gone away. The virus is still out there, still spreading without a care for anything else that’s going on.
Several SEC programs saw their entire football teams and coaches marching in protest over the weekend. It was possible for them to do so because the conference has allowed the players to be back on campus. Other conferences, including the Big 12, have given the green light for players to go back to campus.
Even so, there’s one football factory that isn’t welcoming its footballers back just yet: Oklahoma. Right now, the Sooners don’t plan to have players on campus until July 1.
Here is an article with comments from head coach Lincoln Riley; here is a half-hour podcast interview with AD Joe Castiglione that’s mostly about the topic.
Their perspective is flipped from what you’re hearing from most schools that have gotten players back. The most common rationale you hear is that the players will be more safe in the controlled environment of campus than they will be in their hometowns. They’ll be monitored by the school’s medical staff and, in many cases, tested for COVID-19 promptly upon their return to campus.
The view from Norman is that the players are actually better off at home than on campus. Bringing players back puts them in close proximity to each other, and there’s no telling where they go and what they do when they’re not under supervision of the strength coach in the weight room or whatever. The possibility for asymptomatic spread means that even if a player tests negative upon his return, he could catch the virus in the community and then unknowingly spread it around the team as he interacts with teammates.
Castiglione doesn’t think the team will be at a competitive disadvantage. Players can’t do much more than work out in front of S&C staff in small numbers on campus right now. Meetings still must be virtual. There’s no practice going on. There are no walkthroughs or film study. With the NCAA recently allowing S&C staff to observe players working out over video chat, he doesn’t see any reason to bring players back yet.
The common theme from Riley and Castiglione is that they want to wait as long as possible to gain as much information as possible. It is a big responsibility to have the players under their watch on campus, so they are going to keep those players home for now. They also see it as an opportunity to let the state of the art for testing to advance.
Unfortunately at this stage, data on the progression of the disease still isn’t as good as you’d like to see. I went to the COVID Tracking Project and pulled up the information it has on the 11 SEC footprint states. The project pulls data from the best sources available and is more accurate to those sources than even the CDC is right now, so it’s about the best we’ve got. I pulled data from its 1:15 pm update on Sunday.
Several of the states have days with negative numbers for new tests processed. That’s because several of them had been counting both serology tests (do you have the disease right now or not?) and antibody tests (have you had it ever?) in the same numbers. That’s particularly unhelpful when you’re trying to divine the state of things at present.
The reason it’s important to separate those out is that the percentage of serology tests coming back positive is one of the most important indicators of the disease we have. The rules of thumb I’m aware of are these:
1) 10% or less means you’re testing enough people to get a good handle on things. Above that and you’re doing too much testing of the sick and not enough of the non-symptomatic public.
2) 3% or less means you’re doing a good job of suppressing the disease.
I ran the percentages for each state for the last two weeks, unless they had negative test days that screwed up the math. In the latter cases, I did it just for the time since the restating of data.
Missouri is the only SEC state at the 3% threshold or below, and it’s exactly at 3%. Florida is second-best at 3.65%. The recent climb in raw positive cases in Florida goes with a significant rise in testing results, so the positivity rate is still pretty low.
Six states (FL, KY, LA, MO, SC, TN) are at 5% or below. They’re pretty close to good. Arkansas and Mississippi are between 5% and 6%, and their trajectories are trending in the wrong direction.
Alabama (9.08%) and Georgia (8.39%) are in danger of going above the 10% figure, meaning things are starting to get away from them there. Those states had lower rates in the past, but they’re quickly going in the wrong direction. Texas is creeping up higher too, landing at 6.81%.
What does this mean? It means that even now, before the effect of the widespread protests of the past week are reflected in the numbers, at least five SEC footprint states are trending higher in their positivity rates. Even as Scott Stricklin is talking not whether but how many fans will be at home sporting events this fall, it’s unclear how many opponents’ states will be in good enough shape to have their college sports teams travel and compete.
I want to believe that the country won’t go back to the way things were in March. A good percentage of people are wearing masks, symptomatic people are more likely to stay home, and we’re taking other precautions that we weren’t three months ago. Alabama and Georgia, plus states elsewhere like Arizona, are showing that not every place is doing enough to suppress the disease.
All the momentum of the last month has gone in one direction. Nothing is certain, however, and this virus thing is not over. Not by a long shot. I’m glad folks are preparing for the best case scenario, but preparing for the worst is still wise. Oklahoma might be the ones who have it right. We’ll see as the summer goes along.