The SEC might be in for a relatively rough year in 2021, at least by its own standards. It’s probably just going to be one of those years, as I don’t think it’s the result of a long-term trend or anything. However, it’s hard not to see it as a potential down season.
At the top, Alabama might be in for one of the seasons where it’s more a Citrus Bowl or New Year’s 6 kind of team than a surefire playoff team. It’ll be breaking in a new starting quarterback with no real game experience, and it finally lost the last of its core skill position players from the past coupe great campaigns with DeVonta Smith, Najee Harris, and Jaylen Waddle in the pros.
There still is talent for sure; Bryce Young was almost as touted a recruit as they come, and John Metchie has already shown flashes for being a top option out wide. This being a Saban Alabama team we’re talking about, it goes plenty deep at running back.
I can’t shake the idea, though, that the Tide will fall off a bit. The 2020 team might be Saban’s best ever, after all. Young might be terrific, but it’d be hard for him to be another Tua or have the year Mac Jones did. The latter was great at throwing deep balls to open receivers, but I don’t think the targets will be quite as wide open without Smith leading the way. With less dynamic an offense and another of the relatively weaker defenses (when compared to Kirby Smart’s units) from Pete Golding, Bama won’t be invincible again.
Speaking of Smart, he’s got a lot to prove with his program sliding little by little each season since nearly winning the national title in 2017. I do think the Bulldogs will be better this year than last, though I can’t rule out another good-but-not-great campaign. Figuring them to improve involves projecting some advancement of existing players, and it’s becoming clear over time that Smart and his staff are not great developers of talent like Dan Mullen and staff are.
Then there’s the matter of the opener. UGA plays at Clemson, and it’s not hard to see them losing that one. To copy the talking point everyone is using and will continue to use for the game, Georgia can still accomplish all its goals if it drops that one. It’s not a conference game, and they have literally the entire rest of the season to learn from a loss.
However if Alabama really does take a step back and the Bulldogs drop the game at Clemson, then the SEC’s presumed standard bearer will be behind the ACC’s. Again, that doesn’t really matter much, but it will play into a feeling like the SEC is down for the year.
Who’s next after those two?
Florida is in the East, but the Gators are on thin ice in a lot of places. As I wrote about recently, they’re in big trouble if they lose Richard Gouraige or Kaiir Elam to injury. Ditto Emory Jones, Trey Dean, Jacob Copeland, and Ventrell Miller.
If one or more of those key guys goes down, the ceiling drops a lot for the team. If some of the young receivers are a little farther off than they need to be, the passing game will be a real weakness. With run blocking a persistent issue now, that’d be a very, very bad thing. I do think they learned a lot from the bad defensive scheming of a year ago, but I can’t count on Todd Grantham to put together another 2019-level unit when it’s the best he ever had by a fair bit.
In short, UF could challenge UGA in the East but has almost no margin of error in any way. And after the Gators, I guess Missouri could be pretty good since it returns a lot from last year? I guess? The rest of the division past Georgia and Florida isn’t all that menacing.
Out west, Texas A&M is appearing in a lot of too-early top ten rankings. The problem? They lost their multi-year starting quarterback plus a lot of seniors off of the offense. It was a cyclical high on that side of the ball, and Jimbo Fisher needs a lot of experience there generally since his scheme is so complicated. Unless he has a lot of experience or a very smart QB like Jameis Winston — Winston’s judgment is manifestly terrible, but FSU did have to beat out Stanford for him — Fisher will struggle not to lose a couple of games.
LSU has a ton coming back, and a few people are very high on them as a result. My issue is I don’t know that I can trust the coordinator hires. Coach O went with first-time coordinators on both sides of the ball. The OC worked for Joe Brady last year with the Panthers, and the DC worked with Dave Aranda a year at Wisconsin in 2015. Aside from those single years working with the key assistants from the 2019 team, I really don’t know what there is to recommend about them.
Auburn will go through transition pains this year with Bryan Harsin taking over. I never thought Harsin was as good as Chris Petersen at Boise, and Petersen himself didn’t exactly turn Washington into a juggernaut.
The SEC’s standing in 2021 is on shaky ground. Alabama may just be elite and not transcendent, and Georgia will have to prove it can develop players. Florida needs a lot to go right to not have its legs cut out from underneath it, LSU is trying to hit the coordinator lottery for the second and third time in three years, and Jimbo will have to find a way not to Jimbo it up.
Get most or all of those things worked out, and the conference will be in its usual place. It’s a lot to ask, though. So, uh, watch out for Missouri maybe?