Last month I noted that from a football standpoint, Florida was in better shape to weather not having spring practice than most programs. It sounds like if there will be a fall season of some sort — a big if — then there will be some kind of practice session allowed over the summer to replace spring. What that would look like is just as up in the air as anything else, but the scattered reports I’ve seen make it sound like it won’t be as long as a normal spring session. If there is a June minicamp, UF probably will still retain some of its advantage.
From a recruiting standpoint, Florida is also in terrific shape compared to a lot of programs. It’s hard to do recruiting right now without the ability to scout players in person, but that show must go on. The Gators have advantages over a lot of other schools given where they stand.
Dan Mullen and his staff were able to ink 21 of 23 prospects in the 2020 cycle on the December signing day. They still had to do maintenance work on their commits, including Xzavier Henderson once he picked UF over Clemson, while pursuing DE signee Princely Umanmielen and a handful of other 2020 guys who went elsewhere. That kind of workload is minuscule compared to what some other programs were doing to shore up their ’20 classes in the last two-plus months of the process.
Therefore, UF was able to get a good jump on their 2021 class early this year. The coaches were able to start going full-steam for their next class, and it visibly paid off.
The Gators currently have 13 commitments in the ’21 class. Only Ohio State with 15 has more. Florida is one ahead of North Carolina, which is notable since Mack Brown famously tries to lock up classes as early as possible. Just two other P5 programs have commitment counts in the double digits, as Miami and Clemson each have ten.
UF picked up seven of its 13 pledges after the early signing day. Offensive lineman Javonte Gardner committed two days after on December 20, so he’s not really a sign of Florida’s increased ability to recruit the next class after the early signing day. However, the Gators got one commit in January, four in February, and one in March.
The sole March one was tight end Nick Elksnis, who committed toward the end of junior day on Saturday the seventh. It’s hard to remember because it feels like a lifetime has gone by since then, but that was the last really free Saturday before the realities of COVID-19 set in. The following Wednesday, March 11, was when the NBA canceled its remaining games and the last day before the SEC Tournament was shelved too.
In other words, Florida’s junior day will be the final campus visit for all of the 2021, 2022, and 2023 recruits who attended the event until all the lockdowns get lifted and the NCAA allows in-person recruiting again. There is still plenty of time to make decisions even for the ’21 guys much less the ’22 and ’23 prospects, but they now have a months-long span where that fun they had in Gainesville is the last such experience they’ve had.
As far as rankings go, UF is on the good side of the Blue Chip Ratio with seven 4-stars and six 3-stars. Mullen has tended to land blue chip prospects late with good closes, so it’ll probably go up towards the end of the cycle. Still, where they’re at now is a good place to be.
Compare UF’s situation to, say, Tennessee. After a “strong” finish with six consecutive wins over no one more notable than Kentucky, the early 2020 narrative was that the Vols had momentum heading into this year. If they do, it’s not showing up much in the recruiting rankings. UT does have nine commits, but just one is 4-star. Seven are 3-stars, and one doesn’t have a rating yet. Jeremy Pruitt may have a good number of commits, but he’s working from a lower base right now than Mullen is.
Or think about Will Muschamp. He’s in another make-or-break season like going into 2014. He has three commits, only one of which has a rating (a 3-star quarterback). New FSU coach Mike Norvell has only four commits, three of them 3-stars. The recruiting powers can afford to hang back for now — LSU and UGA each have four commits, while Alabama has just one — but most everyone else should be picking up momentum.
Florida has done so. Even some rivals with numerical success like Tennessee and Miami (four 4-stars, six 3-stars) are pushing their commit counts higher with lesser talents.
The only programs in significantly better shape at present in terms of numbers and quality of commits are Ohio State and Clemson, for obvious on-field reasons, and UNC, which has been systematically locking up much of the best talent in its home state. Nine of the ten 4-stars and 11 of 12 overall commits the Tar Heels have come from inside their borders. UF has cherry picked some North Carolina talent over the years like Will Grier (sigh) and D.J. Humphries, but Mack Brown is largely not getting his success at the expense of the Gators.
There still is a tremendous amount of uncertainty about what will happen over the next ten months of college football, but Florida is sitting in a great place. It still will have a fairly veteran starting lineup — depending on the package and a couple of personnel decisions, only two or three starters (plus the punter) will be underclassmen this year – with continuity of coaching, scheme, and strength and conditioning. The Gators also have a big head start for the 2021 class while being the most recent campus experience for a lot of premium talent.
A lot of places would love to switch places with Florida right now. It’s nice to be able to say that.