Happy Orange and Blue Game day! Here’s hoping the quarterback situation appears tight because both top options look good and not because they both went about 13-for-23 with a TD and two picks.
As long as the theme of the day is optimism — which is what spring practice and spring games are supposed to be all about — let’s talk about how Florida might catch up with Georgia. It’s been a topic on the GC message board this week, and I have some thoughts that go beyond a mere forum post. Here we go.
Back when Kirby Smart first got to Athens, Nick Saban was asked about his former assistant’s prospects. He said that Smart would do well because Georgia was, or should be, the best job in the SEC. I don’t think he elaborated, but it’s not hard to figure out what he meant by that.
It’s basically the same thing as what Saban had at LSU. UGA is the only premier program in a talent-rich state where all the kids grow up dreaming of playing for that program.
It’s just that the state of Georgia has a little more than double the population of Louisiana. That fact makes it that much easier to harvest elite talent. There are more 4 and 5-star recruits in the state, so UGA has more to choose from to make sure that the guy is both as good as the ratings say and a good fit for the program.
Gone are the days when these schools would load up on 70%+ in-state talent. The Texas Longhorns still do that because they’re the top brand in a state overflowing with talent, but even Texas A&M tops out around 60% in-state these days. Georgia hit a low with only five of 26 signees in 2023 coming from within the borders, but most of the time they max out around half. National recruiting is a big thing.
But still, if Smart wants an elite player from within his state, he’ll get him. That’s a heck of an advantage. Bear Bryant was right that Florida was a sleeping giant back in the day, but it turns out that Mark Richt-era Georgia was a sleeping Death Star.
What might it take for UF to close the gap?
The one factor that can help is that if Billy Napier gets things rolling, he might be able to take a couple players a year away from Georgia’s haul. That may not sound like much, but Alabama doesn’t have the ridiculous depth it used to because Smart has been taking a few players a year away from Saban. The Tide is not bereft of talent and yes, I know what their 2023 class ratings look like. However, I also know that Bama just hasn’t been the same since the core of their last title team left. It’s especially so in the front seven where the Tide and Bulldogs have some of their fiercest recruiting battles.
Two or three players on the margin can make a different if they’re the right two or three. Take just two guys away from UF’s 2006 recruiting class — Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin — and Urban Meyer probably doesn’t win one national title, much less two.
Napier’s not yet there where he’s going to steal that big a game changer away from Smart, but that’s the sort of thing it’s going to take. It’s not just about getting those elite players that have eluded UF for too long, but getting some who otherwise would’ve gone to Georgia.
For example, if Florida gets a 5-star QB out of Arizona whose second choice was USC, then great. That’s better than a lot of potential alternatives. But getting a 5-star defensive tackle out of Buford or an unfairly fast edge rusher from Jacksonville whose second choice was UGA will make a bigger difference.
It will make a difference not just on the zero-sum nature of recruiting battles, but also because both Smart’s and Napier’s staffs have tremendous eyes for talent.
Napier got Louisiana to a place where it was regularly putting offensive linemen into the NFL. Given the history of that program, that’s incredible. They would’ve done it again this year had O’Cyrus Torrence not followed Napier to Gainesville. He and Montrell Johnson looked like SEC players on Day 1, and fellow former Ragin’ Cajun CB Mekhi Garner is probably going to be a mid-round draft pick after starting for LSU last year.
If you read last week’s newsletter, you know how highly I think of Napier’s ability to find and sign college-ready recruits. When you combine last year’s performance with this year’s spring practice reports, things are coming along quite nicely for Napier’s signees.
Only one has perhaps underperformed conventional expectations. Kamari Wilson played a lot of snaps last year, and UF lost both safety starters. For how green and thin the position is, you’d think a former 5-star like Wilson would lock down a starting spot. He’s still one of two favorites to start, but he’s been battling all spring.
But him aside, plenty of players have come through at or above expectation. The three young tight ends in particular sound promising, even the one who gray shirted last year, Tony Livingston. We’ll see how they translate to the field this year versus future ones, but it’s mainly all positive.
If Napier and Smart both want a player, there’s a high likelihood that the player is going to pan out. If Napier wins the battle, then that takes a probable future starter away from a direct rival.
That’s how Florida catches up: winning a couple more head-to-head recruiting battles than it’s doing now. It doesn’t have to overtake UGA entirely, but it does need to weaken them enough that it won’t take the Bulldogs sleepwalking through a game to beat them as has been the case the past couple years. They don’t do that in the Cocktail Party anymore, so UF will have to beat Georgia at its best. UF not only needs to raise its level of play, but it also needs to do what it can to bring down the level of what Georgia’s best is.