Florida oversigned by two this year, something that was a first for the program as far as I am aware. Once the dust settled on National Signing Day, the Gators had 87 scholarships committed to returning players and signees, two over the limit of 85 they have to be at by fall camp.
I’ve covered that topic in this newsletter before, and my general feeling on it was that it made sense to do that only if Dan Mullen knew of players who were going to transfer out. It’s not a good look to pull a scholarship from a returning player or to run someone off via transfer. Or, worse, coercing someone into a medical hardship where the guy gets to finish his college career on scholarship but can never play again.
I don’t know if we’ll ever know what Mullen did in this regard on signing day. My best guess was that maybe someone planned to transfer after graduating in the spring. That’s what happened with offensive lineman Andrew Mike last year, for instance.
That may have been the case with Kylan Johnson. He didn’t enter the transfer portal immediately after signing day, as his doing so wasn’t reported until March 1. However GC’s Nick de la Torre reported that Johnson will graduate this spring or in the first summer session and become a graduate transfer. If he told the coaches ahead of time, the that would account for one of the oversigns.
Florida is now at the 85-scholarship limit thanks to Antonneous Clayton choosing to transfer, but his choice apparently came in the middle of spring practice since it was announced last Monday. His oddly timed departure means that Florida no longer has to worry about the 85-scholarship limit. I do wonder if someone else plans to go after spring or summer like Johnson, though, because if no one else leaves, that would indicate to me that Mullen went two over the limit without knowing for sure how both of the two overages would work themselves out.
If anyone else does have plans to go, Clayton’s exit means that future transfers out make room for transfers in. In one of his spring media appearances, Mullen was asked if a graduate transfer could walk in the door after spring is over and make the two-deep on the offensive line. His answer was an enthusiastic yes, complete with explanation about how a graduate transfer will be someone who has played and only has to learn the scheme and not how to handle himself as a regular contributor.
The more interesting question would’ve been whether the hypothetical transfer could be a starter specifically, since with Noah Banks out the backup line has been Richard Gouraige and four early enrollees. If a graduate transfer couldn’t beat out one of the true freshmen, what is Florida doing taking such a guy? But I digress.
The point I was going for here is that Mullen didn’t shoot down the notion of a transfer. He didn’t say it was a moot point because they were full-up on scholarships, which they were. Maybe he was only thinking about it conceptually and the roster numbers didn’t come to his mind — which is entirely plausible — but Mullen’s public entertaining of the idea might mean he knows the transfer market will be open to him.
There is one other effect of Clayton leaving: Florida well and truly doesn’t have a single 5-star recruit on the roster anymore. It lost its last two 5-stars according to the 247Sports Composite when Martez Ivey and Cece Jefferson graduated, and a lot of folks (including me) go off of the Composite because it incorporates rankings by multiple recruiting services.
A few people only go off of one service or another, though, and Rivals is probably still the most trusted among folks who do that (I’ll add that you should use it and not the Composite for the cycles before 2011 since 247 was very sloppy in its data gathering for the years before its founding). Clayton was a 5-star in the 2016 class in the estimation of Rivals, so him leaving means that no matter how you slice it now, Florida is out of the top tier of recruits.
The caveat that recruiting rankings aren’t the end-all-be-all always applies; Jachai Polite had 13 sacks last year despite only rating a 3-star in high school. Mullen is the best talent developing head coach that Florida has had since his old boss haunted the sidelines, so raw rankings are less important now than they were for recent past staffs.
That said, players get 5-star ratings because they’re visibly bigger, faster, stronger, and/or more skilled than their peers. Georgia’s 5-star running back D’Andre Swift is able to turn the corner every time on Florida’s 3-star linebacker David Reese II because Swift has elite speed that Reese just doesn’t.
While Clayton’s transfer means UF is out of scholarship limit jeopardy, it is a reminder that UF doesn’t have the highest of the high-end talent anymore. Mullen is working to fix it, but the Gators will be at a disadvantage against the Georgias and Alabamas of the world until that turns around.