I don’t know about you, but I’m finding it hard to get excited about the Gator football team right now. Maybe you’re not, and that’s great for you. I hope the following doesn’t dampen your spirits.
However based on what I’ve seen on the Gator Country message boards and on social media, a decent contingent of the super fans who frequent such places and talk about football in March are on the same page. It’s not easy to get really worked up in a positive way right now.
I suspect that the main reason is that the team seems to have finally settled into a consistent malaise for the first time since the pre-Steve Spurrier days.
“Consistent malaise” is not a defined term, so there’s room to disagree here. The Ron Zook era certainly felt malaise-y to a lot of fans, myself included, since the high of the Spurrier era came down to 8-5, 8-5, and 7-5 records in consecutive seasons. It at least came to an end concurring with the end of Zook’s employment, and UF hired the most sought-after coach of the ensuing cycle. Hope returned.
But more generally speaking, I would define “consistent malaise” as this: more than two years in a row of having marginal bowl team status or worse. The last time that happened was 1986-88, when the team had a regular season record of 6-5 in each campaign. The ’86 team wasn’t able to go to a bowl despite its marginal eligibility by record due to sanctions from the Charley Pell era. Zook’s teams never came one reversed result away from missing a bowl.
In the post-Tebow era, Florida has had its down seasons. The 2010 season’s 8-5 record was a surprise, and Will Muschamp’s first team went 6-6. However, Coach Boom’s second team went 11-1 in the regular season. His final two teams were on the path to malaise, but then Jim McElwain’s first team won ten games and the division. His second team won nine and the division. His final year was a disaster, but then Dan Mullen’s first three teams went to New Year’s Six games.
The 2020 team with its high powered offense was the only one that had a realistic shot of winning the conference — that 11-1 team in 2012 didn’t even win the division, and the 2015-16 teams were hopelessly overmatched in Atlanta — and taking SEC titles with some regularity is a baseline requirement for a Florida head coach. There’s been a lot of churn at the top and very few chances of fulfilling program expectations, but the true valleys weren’t ever more than two years long.
Then the cracks that formed in 2020 broke the program in 2021. Mullen was fired mid-season and the team finished 6-7. As is happening with far too much regularity, the program then got yet another new coach to bring new hope.
The 2022 team had some wild ups and downs, but it was in position to finish strong after a win at Texas A&M and a blowout victory over South Carolina. It then laid a giant egg in Nashville and lost to an inferior Vanderbilt, and three years of the defense’s bad habits were on display in a loss to FSU that easily could’ve been a win with an extra stop or two. It was a second straight year of a 6-6 regular season, and injuries and opt outs meant the bowl game was hopeless against a decent, motivated, and full-strength Oregon State.
So, that’s two years in a row of a marginal bowl team. We’re on the precipice of malaise here.
As for 2023? There isn’t a new head coach, so that avenue for hope is out. The most important position on the field is a competition between a pair of Big Ten transfers, one of whom was unimpressive for three seasons and another who’s barely played because he couldn’t beat out likely top NFL Draft picks at either of his two schools. The latter is perhaps being too nice, as he never seriously pushed either. Injury did hold him back at UF, but he also got passed up by a 3-star redshirt freshman that everyone has since memory-holed due to his rather unsavory arrest and dismissal.
The plan is to win with a power run game, again. Only this time, there won’t be an incredible athletic freak taking snaps who could erase offensive line mistakes a handful of times a game. Barring some kind of unforeseen marquee transfer after spring ball, the signal caller will be a guy who merely makes you think, “huh, well at least he’s not a statue”.
Teams that want to win with a power run attack need to pair it with a tough defense. The rushing takes so much time off of the clock that there aren’t many chances to make up for blown coverages and missed gap assignments. Only, the last three seasons have seen a stunning decline in a Gator defense that had, until 2020, largely held up its end of the bargain. There were some putrid Florida offenses in the 2010-19 decade, but 2017 aside, the defense had nearly always shown up and shown out.
On top of all that, the schedule is tough. The season starts with a road trip to Utah. Tennessee and FSU are back to the higher end of their potentials. A couple of the toss up games in Kentucky and South Carolina are on the road. The Gators are going to get beat up after the bye week with a stretch of Georgia, home against Arkansas, and at LSU. The Gators then play at Missouri, which will be harder than it should be simply because it’s late November and will be cold (see: 2022 Vandy game).
It was possible to talk yourself into thinking last year’s team could’ve been an eight or nine-win outfit. They underachieved those expectations, but they at least made it to 6-4 with a real chance at 8-4.
This year’s team, again barring some kind of miracle quarterback transfer, looks much more like a six or seven-win team. Hit the lower end or under on that, and we’re in malaise territory.
I want to find a reason for optimism. That’s what spring practice is for. But, I just don’t see it. Even if the defense makes some strides under the new DC, the offense is probably going to regress enough to offset it. This will be another building-for-the-future season.
And ultimately that’s fine if they do build something and look set for a breakout in 2024. But, it’s hard to get excited about watching 12 games of laying pipes and hanging drywall. Again.