If you didn’t read my advanced stats review of the Orange Bowl, I’d of course recommend you do so. There are a lot of good nuggets in there about how the Gators came out on top in the game.
One that I want to direct your attention to is how the scoring took place. I noted that both teams scored four touchdowns apiece. The difference in the game therefore was the fact that UF was able to hit enough big plays to generate three field goal drives. UVA meanwhile was unable to get any field goals. The Cavs were basically either driving enough for a touchdown or stalling out and punting — or having a score stolen away by Kaiir Elam.
Lamical Perine and Kyle Trask had some of the explosive runs, and they were 3-star recruits. The other explosive gains were a run by Emory Jones and receptions by Kyle Pitts, Tyrie Cleveland, and Van Jefferson (two). They all were 4-star prospects.
The fact the Gators had some high-end talent was the difference, in other words. For all the justified arguments over UF’s talent level when compared with the elite teams in the sport, Florida was still fairly high up there at No. 15 in the Team Talent Composite, which combines talent ratings for everyone on teams’ rosters. They had 39 blue chip (4 or 5-star) players against 35 3-stars. That compares poorly against Alabama’s 69 blue chips and 11 3-stars, but it’s still well above a lot of teams.
One of the teams it’s well above is Virginia. The Cavaliers ended up 59th in the Team Talent Composite. They had zero 5-stars and a single 4-star, freshman defensive lineman Jowon Briggs. The rest of the team that even carried ratings consisted of 77 3-stars and a handful of 2-stars.
As you saw, guys like Bryce Perkins, Hasise Dubois, and Joe Reed play well above their 3-star ratings. So do Perine and Trask among others on the Florida roster. However the reason the Gators were able to get ahead and stay ahead was good play by blue chip prospects.
That’s why it’s so important for Florida to land someone like WR Xzavier Henderson, CJ’s little brother who committed to the program on Saturday. Sure they had an advantage from him being around Gainesville a lot, but Dan Mullen and his staff were able to close the deal. In the process, they beat out Clemson for a player that the Tigers really wanted. That’s something that not many programs can say they’ve done lately, especially in the 2020 cycle. For the team to return to The Gator Standard, they’re going to have to win battles like that. It’d be a bad sign if they couldn’t even do it with the brother advantage.
Henderson could end up a bust; just ask Cooper Manning whether having a great player for a brother is a guarantee of anything. However, he probably will do quite well. In fact with all the departures, he has a real chance to win some snaps this fall. He has good size at 6’4″ and comes with nearly the same elite speed that CJ has. It’ll be a real surprise if he doesn’t end up a standout by the time he’s done.
Perhaps most importantly, he will spend at least three years in the program.
Mullen has worked transfers as well as anyone in the past couple of years, and I’d be willing to hear the case that no one has bested him. However, transfers necessarily come in with a limited time clock. Trevon Grimes staying for his senior year is a bit of an exception, as he’ll have spend three years at UF when he’s done. Van Jefferson and Adam Shuler only got two years, though, and Jonathan Greenard only did one year.
Would I rather he not bring in transfers? Heavens no. We all saw the defense without Greenard this year. It is what the defense would look like next year without Brenton Cox. However if Cox replicates Greenard’s level of play, he will also only spend one year in the program.
Transfers that patch important holes are great. They are just that, though: patches. Even when you get transfers who only spent one year at their former school, you might get three good years like with Grimes if they’re cleared to go right away or you might get one year if they sit out and then ball out like what’s likely for Cox.
I am more excited for the program that it’s going to sign Henderson than at the prospect of getting Penn State wide receiver transfer Justin Shorter. In the 247 Sports Composite, Shorter was a 5-star in the 2018 class. He was the No. 1 receiver and No. 8 player overall.
Injuries slowed him as a true freshman in ’18, and he missed three games in ’19. When he did play last fall, he did little to distinguish himself. His most productive game was the opener where he had three catches for 36 yards against FCS Idaho.
Now, if he gets fully healthy and goes through Nick Savage’s training program, maybe he’ll turn into that 5-star prospect. Thing is he doesn’t really have a case for a waiver, so he likely will have to sit out the 2020 season due to transfer rules. Then as a fourth-year player he’s going to hear a ticking clock in his head in regards to the NFL in 2021 if he plays well. If UF takes him, he will consume an initial counter and a scholarship in 2020 for a guy who won’t play. Then in the best case scenario, Florida will get one good year out of him.
That’s why I am less high about Mullen’s transfer market success than most are if my Twitter mentions are any guide. You can’t build a consistent winner based on transfers. Sometimes, like in the 2019 offseason with offensive linemen, there just won’t be someone there who can plug a big hole that your program has.
You build a consistent winner through recruiting. Landing Henderson is a good sign, as is the 2020 class in general. It’s not happening overnight, but the recruiting improvements are what you should be paying attention to more so than Cox, Lorenzo Lingard, and maybe Shorter giving Florida some 5-stars on the roster again. When the 5-star count is rising because of signees, that’s when you pop the champaign.