The Florida team that showed up against Texas was the one I was expecting to see from Week 1. I won’t say I predicted the win over the Longhorns, because I didn’t, but I certainly thought the Gators were capable of it.
Last Friday, someone asked in a GC thread why the point spread of the game had tightened up to just UT by 5.5. Here were my answers to the question:
- UF only lost to LSU 13-10 in terms of offensive points, and Lagway didn’t throw a pick against Miami.
- They were only down six to Miami in the fourth quarter before the defense ran out of gas. The D-line was severely shorthanded by the end of that one but now has everyone but Banks back.
- Dallas Wilson finally gets to play, and he might break a long one in a way that no one else can.
- Florida’s defensive philosophy is largely “bend-but-don’t-break and we’ll stop you in the red zone”, and Sark has had red zone problems for years.
- I couldn’t put odds on it happening, but if late 2024 Lagway reappears, that’d make the team much more dangerous since the defense is better.
- Texas hung in there with Ohio State but its offense and Manning specifically were largely bad in that one, and Arch stunk it up two weeks later against UTEP too. There’s no guarantee that the Manning who played well against San Jose State and Sam Houston State will be the one who appears, since he’s been on a bad-good-bad-good pattern. Bad would be next up if the pattern holds.
The only dud in there was the fourth point in the list about the defense. It is true generally that UF doesn’t pull out all the stops to get stops quickly, and Steve Sarkisian has had red zone problems. It just didn’t turn out that way, as UF did get some quicker stops thanks to sacks and picks, and Texas found the end zone on all three red zone trips.
Regardless, Texas turned out to be another wobbly top ten team like LSU was. The Gator defense was able to hold up better for longer with more guys available on the line. Wilson’s long sideline touchdown catch where he both shrugged off and outran defenders is different than what anyone else on the team can do. DJ Lagway did have his late-2024 form still in him. Manning had some high points but was not spectacular.
In other words, a lot about this game was foreseeable. It didn’t come out of the blue. The team was built to win in exactly this way both schematically and from a personnel standpoint.
I understand why so many people were looking at the schedule and wondering if the Gators were going to finish 3-9 or 2-10, or maybe among the catastrophically minded, 1-11. The latter I don’t think was ever on the table because Kentucky is dreadful and quite far behind talent-wise. However I get the speculation about the other two possibilities.
I also never fully bought into that myself because this really is the most talented team Billy Napier has yet had. I know the schedule might also be the toughest he’s had, and he put himself behind the eight ball with the USF loss. No matter how tough the slate, however, there are far too many good players on this team to end up with a record that bad unless everyone just quits. That’s not how this works; they play the games because the outcome that “should” happen doesn’t always.
What does this win mean for the rest of the season? It’s impossible to know.
For one thing, Lagway is clearly not right. I am not always the best at picking out when a guy is playing hurt, but it became obvious on a rollout when Lagway had to throw it away and he did so while jumping with the wrong leg (his left). Something is wrong with his right leg, and as there’s been no announcement about it, I don’t know what it is.
But besides that, Napier didn’t save his job with this victory. It maybe, might cancel out the USF loss, but that’s it. Based on what I’ve seen so far, Miami is the real deal but both Texas and LSU are due to be exposed by other teams. By season’s end, it wouldn’t shock me if either or both is in the 8-4 or 7-5 range, which in LSU’s case would be 7-5 or 6-6 had UF pulled out the win.
Plus, Napier’s yet to beat a team on the road that has finished the season above .500. Seeing as how Texas A&M is 5-0 with Arkansas, South Carolina, and Samford still on the slate, it’s a safe bet they’ll finish the year above .500. UF goes to Kyle Field this Saturday, so we get to find out right away if this was a true turning point or just another random up point on Napier’s path.
Plus, UF has to play Georgia away from home, and while those underwhelming Wildcats are also a road game, so is Ole Miss. Both the Bulldogs and Rebels will finish above .500, so past performance suggests that Napier will struggle mightily beat either of them. Drop those two and A&M, and that’s six losses. A 6-6 record doesn’t keep him around another year, I expect.
On the other end of the spectrum of possibilities, everything is still ahead of this team. USF and Miami are not in the SEC, so the Gators could technically go to Atlanta if they win out. Napier himself alluded to this possibility in his Monday presser, noting that he could again play Texas (who also only has one conference loss).
Ultimately it all comes down to two things: Lagway’s health, both mental and physical, and also the offensive line play.
Lagway did once throw into triple coverage, but he didn’t have the mental breakdowns he did earlier this year. If he has shaken off the rust and re-learned how to read defenses, that’s good, but of course it apparently must come with the tradeoff that his leg is hurt again. I try not to read into too much, but his biggest wins (LSU and Ole Miss last year, Texas this year) have come when his mobility was limited and he had to stay in the pocket. Maybe there’s something to that, maybe there’s not. Regardless, the Lagway we saw on Saturday is far and away the best quarterback option the team has if a true freshman who missed most of his senior year of high school to injury is the backup.
And secondly, the difference in line play was the other change as big as Lagway’s turnaround. Miami’s defense simply whipped the Gator OL. But even before the UM game, the offensive line was playing so far below expectations that you couldn’t see the expectations from there. Somehow they turned it around and manhandled a Texas defense that was obliterating G5 opponents and gave Ohio State significant trouble.
If UF gets that offensive line the rest of the way, then this team can beat anyone it faces. That doesn’t mean they’ll win out if the line shows out like that, because again, not all games go the way they’re supposed to. But if the Gators can run the ball effectively and then give Lagway decent time to scan the field, the offense can hold up its end of the bargain in a way it didn’t in the three losses.
I am still making no predictions and taking things one game at a time. I recommend you do the same, because the range of quality of play between the Texas win and aspects of each of the three losses means that almost anything is conceivable for this year’s team. Who knows what we’ll see next?