Florida’s original 2020 schedule was one set up for success. This new one they’re playing hasn’t turned out so bad either, now that we’re a couple of weeks in.
Ole Miss stressed the defense in a way that few teams can. Fortunately for the Gators, the Rebel defense was flat-out terrible. The UF offense is no less terrific for shredding it, but also that weakness meant the game was never truly in doubt. Lane Kiffin’s new attack could stress and push and sometimes break the defense in all kinds of ways for the staff to study while the team basically breezed to a 1-0 record.
South Carolina isn’t nearly as good as Ole Miss on offense, but it’s more of a complete team. Its defense has more future pro players, even if its front has taken a step or two back from a year ago.
The Gamecocks may have gone 4-8 last year, but they’re visibly better than they were in 2019. Injury was a big reason why they sunk to that low, so they were bound to be better if they could stay healthy. Collin Hill, as a senior, is a better signal caller than freshman Ryan Hilinski was, and Mike Bobo is simply a better offensive architect than Bryan McClendon was.
I don’t know if South Carolina has more than four wins in it again this year. They’re already 0-2, and they still have Georgia, Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M to go. However, that Gamecock team is most definitely improved and not an easy out for non-elite teams.
And speaking of Texas A&M, that’s who UF has next. The score of the Aggies’ 17-12 win over Vandy is a little misleading; A&M won the yards per play battle by a whopping three yards per snap (6.8 to 3.8). They just lost three fumbles to end drives, and a recovered fumble on 4th & 1 on the Vandy 35 killed another series as a turnover on downs.
Then last weekend, they were not competitive with Alabama. I was never on the Aggie hype train this year, but I know a lot of regional and national media were high on the team. I’m not sure there was more to it beyond an even more favorable schedule than UF had and a senior quarterback in Kellen Mond who should be having his breakthrough moment any day now. Yep. Any day. You know, with the vaunted Jimbo Fisher as his coach, it shouldn’t be too much longer. It’s right around the corner. They can feel it.
So yeah, if the Gators fancy themselves a playoff team, it means they’re in the league of someone like Alabama. The Crimson Tide smoked A&M 52-24. They even let their foot off the gas a little in the second half by settling for a field goal once instead of getting into the end zone basically every time. From the Aggie 11-yard-line, they went run-run-incomplete pass to the running back. Such restraint.
I’m not sure the Gators can blow the doors off of Texas A&M in that way, but there’s plenty on tape now for how to attack them. And if Florida is who it thinks it can be, it should be able to win in a way that’s not dissimilar from how it has so far against the Rebels and Gamecocks.
A&M doesn’t have the horses at the skill positions this year. They have some decent enough running backs, but the wideouts as a whole don’t scare you. WR Jhamon Ausbon opting out probably killed their chances of being more than an also-ran, and — what do you know? — they look like an also-ran.
So Florida will have another game this week where they should get pushed but still should win. The opening betting line on the game appears to be about a touchdown, and that seems right. Texas A&M has recruited better over the last few years than either of the previous opponents, and they have no issues with new coordinators or schemes. They don’t have any glaring holes, even if their ceiling isn’t as high as some might’ve thought. ESPN’s game predictor gives UF about a 70% chance of winning.
I would’ve told you a few days ago that Florida lucked out some by getting LSU and A&M among the predicted top four West teams while Georgia got Auburn and Alabama. The point still stands on Bama, but the rest isn’t as clear-cut.
AU seems more of a paper tiger (rimshot) after having nothing in the trenches for the UGA offensive line. LSU then woke up from its Air Raid-induced stupor by curb stomping Vandy worse than the Aggies would have had they not turned it over once. As I’ve said before, it’s a high variance season. There will be some big swings from week-to-week.
Regardless, it’s just as obvious now as it was months ago that Georgia got the worst of it by having the Crimson Tide on the schedule. With Auburn wilting under the lights in Athens, it’s also fairly clear that Florida can’t count on someone else to knock off the Bulldogs to give them a mulligan for the Jacksonville game. UGA has yet to have its customary no-show game this year, but there’s no guarantee it won’t come in that game against Bama. Until and unless some non-Saban team beats Georgia, you have to assume that Florida must beat Georgia to win the East.
In the meantime, the Gators’ schedule has a relatively gentle ramp. They went from a one-dimensional team to an average balanced team to a better balanced team this week with A&M. They then get an even better balanced team in LSU, the team’s first big test, before a scrimmage versus Missouri and an open date leading up to the Cocktail Party. You can’t ask for a better setup. It’s up to the team to execute on it.