When I wrote my piece before LSU making the case that the game against the Tigers was the swing game for the rest of the year, the frame was that the two games UF could most plausibly lose after the open date were Georgia and Texas A&M. I counted the South Carolina and Vandy games as likely wins with FSU a tossup.
So naturally, the Aggies then went out and lost to South Carolina last weekend. So much for my framing device.
To be clear, it’s not like the Gamecocks really bulked up and took the game. If you peruse the stats, it was hideous.
A&M first let the Gamecocks return the opening kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown. Whoops. The Aggies then threw a pick on their first drive. Carolina went zero yards in three plays — a run for no gain followed by two incompletions — and kicked a field goal. TAMU promptly fumbled it away on the third play of their second series. The Gamecocks then gained 19 yards on four runs to get a touchdown. Barely more than five minutes in, South Carolina had 17 points on 19 total yards.
Those early points were decisive in a 30-24 Gamecock win. To its credit, Carolina also managed to engineer an 80-yard touchdown drive that took up five of the last eight minutes of the game. It gave them a two-score lead at 30-21, something that proved insurmountable for an Aggie offense that can’t make explosive plays to save its life.
There were problems late, though. South Carolina let A&M block the extra point on that touchdown, so an Aggie field goal and touchdown would’ve won the game with no two-pointer needed. Jimbo got the field goal, but it was with ten seconds to go in the game. Then the Gamecocks actually let TAMU get the ensuing onside kick, but two incompletions later — the second coming with freshman Conner Weigman moving around in the pocket for no reason and getting his desperation heave knocked down immediately — Carolina sealed it.
All of this is to say that it was a wacky and weird game at times with long stretches of punting and misadventure in between. Absolutely nothing happened in that game that would make me think Florida should lose to either team.
I also don’t think UF should’ve lost to Kentucky, so we all know that what should happen doesn’t always. It does make me more optimistic about how things can go down the stretch if the Gators weather the storm this weekend.
The main key to the Cocktail Party will be Anthony Richardson emerging from the game with his confidence intact. We’ve seen what happens to him when it gets damaged, and I would not care to see replays of his performance against UK and USF.
I am very curious to see how it goes since he completely lost the plot late in the first half against UGA last year. UF got inside three minutes to go in the first half down only 3-0 before AR’s complete meltdown. I think a lot of that was Georgia playing it conservative on offense knowing that UF’s offense was unlikely to score much, and indeed it took a garbage time touchdown drive led by Emory Jones to keep the program’s scoring streak going. But the Gators were hanging in there a lot better than anyone expected.
I am not sure that UF can repeat that and keep it close for a half with as poorly as the defense has played this year. Even if Patrick Toney figures out some ways to get more out of the unit — even just two straight weeks of nothing but practicing tackling skills probably would pay off — they just don’t have the players to keep the Bulldog tight ends in check.
I can try to put a positive spin on things for you. The way LSU beat down Ole Miss suggests that they may have actually turned a corner in the week leading up to the Florida game and didn’t just feast because of bad play from UF. Brian Kelly, for all his foibles off of the field, has been a terrific ball coach for a long time. Plus if Missouri can push UGA to the limit, so could the Gators if UGA plays like that again.
The thing is, UGA probably won’t play like that again. They usually have a sleepwalking game every year, but this year they had two in a row against Kent State and Mizzou. Against a rival the following week, they woke up and stomped Auburn 42-10. AU is a dead team walking, sure, but they’re still playing hard nonetheless and the Bulldogs dropped the hammer.
No one came into this year expecting Florida to beat Georgia. I hate to lose that game as much as anyone else, but everything about 2022 at this point is completely focused on looking towards the future. If Florida can avoid getting embarrassed, that would be best.
But really, getting Richardson out with no ill effects is the most important thing. South Carolina’s win over Texas A&M doesn’t make me any less confident about beating the Gamecocks; it makes me more optimistic about beating the Aggies. If the Gators get good games out of Richardson, both of those should be wins. If Georgia shatters his confidence and he plays like he did against Kentucky, then neither one is a sure thing.
There’s a good chance that the team loses to Georgia in a way that hurts a lot. It sucks to have to say that. However, they could easily run the table from there and finish 8-4. All in all, that would be a nice way to finish given where the team is at now. They just have to make sure Richardson hangs tough through whatever happens.