LSU is the swing game for Florida’s 2022 season

There hasn’t been a whole lot of national attention paid to the Florida-LSU game this year. It makes sense even as it is disappointing, because both teams already have two losses.

To the extent anyone has really discussed it, it has been about how Billy Napier and Brian Kelly are linked because of how each was hired. If LSU had offered the job to Napier, he probably would’ve taken it. It’s no smaller a job than UF’s, but it would’ve had some advantages. Napier had already established himself in the state after four years at Louisiana, and LSU is the dominant P5 presence in the state. Nick Saban will still cherry pick some players, but in contrast, UF is a part of a Big Three and not simply the Big One in a decent talent-producing state.

LSU AD Scott Woodward loves making splash hires, though, and Napier wouldn’t have qualified like Kelly did. There also have been scattered reports that bigwigs at the school didn’t have the stomach for hiring the coach of what I’m sure they still call Louisiana-Lafayette. It wouldn’t even be the same thing as Florida hiring the UCF coach — Tulane would be the equivalent for Louisiana — but more like the FAU or FIU coach. Not a lot of Gator fans would by hyped up for that, no matter the coach’s pedigree or recent record of success.

So while this contest will set the tone for that narrative arc, it looms much larger in terms of what the 2022 season will look like in the end.

The Gators have two conference losses and still have to play Georgia and Texas A&M after the open date. The Bulldogs aren’t near as dominant as they were last year, but that’s still a likely loss. The Aggies look much more gettable than their preseason projections suggested, but it’s far from a guaranteed win. Some advanced stats stats ratings like F/+ have the Tigers and Aggies close — SP+ itself has the teams just 0.4 points apart on a neutral field — but the Gators get the Bayou Bengals at home while having to travel to College Station.

Therefore, the outcome of Saturday night’s contest could swing the way the season ends up looking.

Should UF fall to those two tougher opponents after the break, whether the Gators beat LSU will determine if they finish at or below .500 in conference play. If they do later on pick off the Aggies, then this weekend’s game will be the difference between finishing at or above .500 in SEC play.

And in terms of overall record, if the Gators lose to UGA and A&M, the outcome of this weekend’s game will determine whether the FSU game is for finishing over .500 or not.

Now as I said, I am not writing the Texas A&M game off by any stretch. If we flip the circumstances I’ve been describing to one where we talk about what happens if Florida wins that contest, then a whole different story begins.

I still don’t think Georgia is winnable because I’ve yet to see the Gators effectively cover good tight ends in pass coverage. The Bulldogs have a couple of those in Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington, who are averaging north of 17 yards per catch. If Missouri could legitimately push UGA to the finish, the Gators certainly could if they play their best game. Mizzou didn’t turn it over, though, and UF has avoided turnovers just twice against P5 competition since the start of 2020. And when it gets to a critical situation, I can’t see any way for UF to stop the Bulldogs from using Bowers and Washington as trump cards to win it.

So if Georgia is unfortunately a third loss but Texas A&M is a win, we’re talking about how Florida could reach its ceiling on the year.

UF should beat South Carolina and Vandy. The latter is the easier call since the Commodores, while improved, are moving up off of a very low baseline from last year. The Gamecocks did beat Kentucky and its backup quarterback, but with even an average game from Anthony Richardson, Florida probably would’ve beaten UK with its starting QB. UF also gets Carolina at home, which helps.

With those two as wins, victories over both LSU and A&M would place the Gators at 8-3 heading into the (sigh) Friday night showdown with FSU. Beat the Seminoles, and they get to 9-3. I think most folks would’ve taken 9-3 in a heartbeat prior to the season, and it’d be a remarkable turnaround after starting the year 2-2.

It also would match Urban Meyer’s 9-3 record from his first season (which had only 11 regular season games) and give Napier a shot to match Jim McElwain and Dan Mullen’s feats of finishing with ten wins in their first seasons. The latter would be particularly encouraging given that, if he keeps the current class together and finishes strong, Napier is recruiting much closer to Meyer’s rate than Mac’s or Mullen’s.

I think I’ve covered the gamut of potential outcomes for 2022, from 6-6 on the low end to 9-3 on the high. I’m fairly confident of three of the remaining six outcomes, though, so three games will make the all the difference.

As LSU is the first of those three key contests, it looms the largest for swinging the season from here. Tomorrow night will provide talk radio fodder for a year about the supposed rivalry between Napier and Kelly, but it will make a much bigger impact on the season right now.