Florida football is officially now a Rorschach test: anyone can see what they want to see.
The good: Florida dominated an iffy Kentucky team in DJ Lagway’s first start against an FBS team. The defense wasn’t completely lockdown, but they made big plays when they needed to in order to avoid UF becoming the first SEC team to allow more than 20 points to the Wildcats — yes, I know there was a non-offensive score in there, that’s why I said “first SEC team” and not “first SEC defense”.
Last year’s bulldozing by Ray Davis aside, Florida’s losses to Kentucky were often marred by the Gators frittering away opportunities while the Wildcats get improbable big plays to overcome their own issues. It looked early like things might go that way. Two promising Gator drives ended in field goals, and then a UK flea flicker found the end zone. Uh oh, here we go again, I thought. But then a missed PAT was a sign that things weren’t just going to adhere to the script.
Despite a very freshman-level mistake on a pick from Lagway, Florida built and extended its lead with a goal line stand, a 98-yard touchdown drive, a near pick-six from Devin Moore, and a TD plunge from Jadan Baugh. Only the aforementioned kickoff return TD brought the mood down following that missed extra point.
My question at halftime was whether Billy Napier would try to park the bus after halftime as he did against Tennessee last year and may or may not have done intentionally against UCF this year. UK pulling within one score on the opening drive of the third quarter should’ve been a sign that doing so wouldn’t be enough.
And so, perhaps improbably, Napier didn’t do that. Florida was aggressive on the ensuing drive and scored to put the lead back at 14 points. And while leading by that same margin of 14 points with under six minutes to go, a pair of runs to start a drive made it look like Napier was trying to bleed clock. However, on third down Lagway aired it out to Elijhah Badger for 40 yards to get into the red zone. Two more Baugh runs slammed the door, and then a pick-six for Cormani McClain was the icing on top.
The box score on this game was WILD. Lagway was a mere seven-for-14, but it was for 259 yards. That’s an average of 18.5 yards per attempt and 34.9 yards per catch. Baugh had five rushing touchdowns, joining Tim Tebow (South Carolina, 2007) and Trey Burton (Kentucky, 2010) as the only UF freshmen to do that. Badger had three catches… for 148 yards. That’s almost 50 yards per catch! All but one of Lagway’s completions went for at least 23 yards.
Lagway’s pick was bad, and he had a habit of trying to do things he could get away with in high school that he can’t in college. He clearly has too high an opinion of his speed, as he kept trying to extend scrambles or runs laterally instead of turn upfield at the first sign of an opening. Time will correct a lot of that, and you’d rather start with someone with too much confidence and refine him than too little and have to try to coax adequately daring play out of him.
The next two weeks are going to contain a lot of national writers trying to fill time/column space with speculation about whether Napier is in the process of saving his job.
Here’s the thing. Florida has been better since the first open date swap of putting Ron Roberts in the booth and Austin Armstrong back down on the field. Roberts is calling much better games, and the defensive energy level is higher.
But also, coaching blunders by Napier at Tennessee are the primary reason why the Gators lost that game. And the team was wholly unprepared for a season opener for the second season in a row. And in the Texas A&M game, they made a mobile backup quarterback look like a Heisman contender for the umpteenth time in a row.
But also, the youth and key transfers prevailed tonight. Lagway and Baugh are true freshmen. Badger, Chimere Dike, and Trikweze Bridges were portal finds intended to plug critical holes, and they were terrific. Napier even stuck his neck out a little for McClain, and he got a highlight in his first action.
But also, this momentum that appears to be there isn’t coming from beating the best. The team’s four wins are over an FCS team, a 1-6 (0-4) SEC team, a 3-4 (1-3) Big 12 team, and a 3-4 (1-3) SEC team. That’s… not impressive. The story on the schedule was that Napier not only needed to but had the opportunity to bank some wins up early before the brutal stretch run, and FSU’s cratering season aside, that appears right. He really should’ve banked up more, but here we are. One upset in the next four plus a win over a dreadful Seminoles team, and he’s going to a bowl.
But also, Florida’s standards are not just trying to make a bowl in Year 3. Yes, it still is a tough schedule despite not turning out to be as bad as feared. A solid-to-good result would’ve been seven to nine wins, considering, and that still seems a remote possibility. Plus as I type this, the 2025 recruiting class is ranked No. 39 in the country in the 247 Sports Composite.
We’ve got time yet, and things tend to sort themselves out. I am less convinced that Napier gets fired than I was a month ago, but I still think it’s more likely than not. The Gators could get thoroughly destroyed by Georgia and Texas in the next two games, demonstrating that they’re still years away from being able to compete with the best.
Or, they could play them surprisingly close or even pull an upset. This season is turning out more fun than I had thought it’d be because it’s just so unpredictable. I’ll take that ride that for as long as it’ll go.