(Note from Ray: We’re launching another VIP members only newsletter: Will Miles from Read and Reaction will pen a regular column for us along the line of ten musings of the week (or bi-week) in off-season.
We are making the first couple issues free to all as a preview.
Current VIP members are automatically opted into this newsletter.
We hope you enjoy and stay tuned for more! -Ray)
By: Will Miles
The Orange Bowl is a blessing for the Gators
The minute Florida lost to Georgia – and looked underwhelming doing it – I’ve sensed Gators fans have checked out a little bit.
I’ve seen it with the numbers on my website and you can see it with the comments when the Orange Bowl matchup was announced. That doesn’t mean that Florida fans won’t come out in full force in Miami for the game against Virginia, but it does mean that the intensity that the Gators bring to the game may be lacking, especially early in the game.
I can’t really blame the players or fans for that. After Georgia’s underwhelming performance in the SEC Championship Game, a lot of Gators fans are asking how in the world this Florida team lost to a Georgia team that looked that awful? Of course, LSU made a lot of teams look awful this season, including the Florida defense.
The reality is that a Sugar Bowl date with Baylor would have been a challenge. The Bears likely would have been underdogs, but it would have been a lot less than that 14.5 points that Florida is projected to beat Virginia by.
Instead, if the Gators take care of business they should finish this year at 11-2 with a finish in the AP top-5 if Georgia struggles with Baylor.
Virginia is the perfect matchup for Florida
It’s not just that the Cavaliers were gifted a spot in the Orange Bowl by way of being in the ACC that makes me think Florida will beat them handily. It’s that Virginia’s weaknesses play right into the Gators favor.
The biggest one is that Virginia’s defense is terrible against the pass. The Cavaliers ranked 93rd in FBS in yards per pass attempt allowed while the pass is obviously what Dan Mullen and this incarnation of the Florida Gators offense wants to do.
On the other side of the ball, Florida has been exploited by veteran QBs who have been able to pick apart holes in the secondary. But Bryce Perkins for Virginia – while a senior – has been relatively underwhelming at doing that.
His passer rating of 131.5 and average per attempt (7.1) is below what Feleipe Franks averaged in 2018 (143.4, 7.6). That would be fine if he was making a huge difference with his legs, but he isn’t doing that either, only averaging 3.5 yards per rush attempt.
If Perkins can’t get going in the running game to make up for his deficiencies throwing the ball, Florida is going to run away with this one way easier than even the oddsmakers think.
Coaching matters – Georgia addition
My daughter was singing at a Philadelphia Flyers game the afternoon of the SEC Championship Game so we ended up listening to the first quarter on the radio while driving back home.
LSU had just fumbled in its own territory, but the officials reversed the call and gave the ball back to the Tigers. Georgia was able to force a punt though and took over at its own 44-yard line. The color man on the radio immediately indicated that Georgia had to find a way to score since they had good field position.
Georgia converted a third down into LSU territory and then faced another third-and-9 while close to field goal range. The Bulldogs called a draw against a five-man front and got stuffed, then exacerbated the problem by missing the field goal.
So there are a few things here. Against that front, a run actually isn’t a terrible call if you’re going to go for it on fourth down. That’s because there is the possibility that if blocked well, the run will gain 6-10 yards, either getting a first down or setting up the fourth down conversion.
But if you’re not going to go for it, then why wouldn’t you put the ball in Jake Fromm’s hands? Admittedly Fromm hasn’t been great this year, but he was the only way Georgia was going to beat LSU in this game and instead, Georgia played for a field goal.
This kind of tentative play has been a hallmark of Kirby Smart’s tenure at Georgia and is a big reason why Georgia has come up small in big games while he’s been the coach.
Smart is now 0-4 against LSU and Alabama in his time at Georgia with a team that is absolutely loaded with talent. Dan Mullen got criticized for going 2-14 against those two in his tenure at Mississippi State, but that was with significantly less talented teams.
It all sets up for a huge opportunity for Florida. If Mullen can finally get Georgia in 2020, the noise is going to get really, really loud in Athens.
Recruiting realities
Florida currently sits eighth in the 247Sports Composite recruiting rankings and that ranking is likely to stay the same or go down – not further up – as the recruiting season plays out.
That’s because the Gators have 24 commitments along with two transfers. There are only so many players they will be able to take and even if one is a stud, it can only move the needle so much.
For example, if Florida were to finish out this class by signing two 5-star recruits (for example, running back Demarkcus Bowman and athlete Darnell Washington), that only takes Florida’s point total up to 282.58, which would only be enough to get Florida up to fifth in the rankings.
The problem is that Texas A&M (20), Georgia (15), Texas (17), Auburn (20) and Oklahoma (19) are all fighting with Florida for the 5-10 slots and currently have similar point totals. Florida would likely be on the top-end of those teams if Mullen is able to snag two 5-star recruits, but the likelihood of that happening is relatively remote.
If he doesn’t get at least one 5-star for this class, the ranking will end up around ninth or tenth. If he does get one, then it probably ends up seventh or eighth.
That won’t be enough to satisfy people who believe (like I do) that elite, top-5 (or even top-3), recruiting is necessary to compete regularly in the SEC. But it’s still a significant improvement upon what Jim McElwain was able to do in his time at Florida.
Facilities are nice, but it won’t improve recruiting much
I know a lot of fans have been clamoring for new and improved facilities to entice recruits to Gainesville.
But here’s the reality: recruits commit to a coach who sells them the best (and potentially cheats the best too). Some coaches are great at it, some are average and some are bad. Mullen is not in the bad category, but he clearly isn’t in the great category either.
He also doesn’t seem to prioritize it, at least not above player development.
He had an opportunity to keep Ja’Juan Seider when he came to Gainesville and decided to bring in Greg Knox to coach running backs. It’s hard to argue with the decision, as Florida’s offensive line and running game was so much better in 2018 and was a big reason the Gators went 10-3.
And if Bowman comes to Gainesville, nobody will be able to say Knox struggles recruiting. But as it stands right now, the entire staff falls in the good but not great category.
So that brings us back to facilities.
Believe me, it doesn’t hurt to have a football-only facility with a state-of-the-art weight room and cafeteria. It is an extra selling point to have the latest in cryo-therapy and a giant pool oasis outside.
But that’s all it is: an extra selling point.
Players commit to a program for the coaches and for the program’s ability to get them to the NFL. And they should, as they are trading their bodies for a scholarship and a chance at that payday.
In the arms race that is college football recruiting, the facilities are just an expectation. If the coaches want to juice up recruiting, their sales pitch needs to be “NFL, NFL, NFL.”
Defensive recruiting
One thing you will notice if you look at Mullen’s class for 2020 is that just about all of his high-level players are on the defensive side of the ball.
There are eight top-200 players and seven of them are on the defensive side of the ball. Add to that transfer outside linebacker Brenton Cox from Georgia, and this class is clearly leveraged towards defense.
You see the same thing if you look at the 2019 class, as six of its seven top-200 players were on the defensive side of the ball and Jonathan Greenard was added as a transfer.
This can’t be an accident.
One thing that Dan Mullen has proven is that he can take a quarterback who was bad the year prior and turn him into a serviceable player. In 2018, he proved that he can take an offense that is limited throwing the ball and develop a running game around that quarterback to make up for it. In 2019, he proved that he can take an offense that is limited running the ball and develop a passing game around a highly-skilled receiving corps to make up for it.
It looks like Mullen knows he isn’t the best recruiter. But it also looks like he’s decided to prioritize making sure he can stop the opposition because he has confidence that if he can do that, he’ll be able to score points.
I think that’s a pretty good bet.
QB Recruiting and Anthony Richardson
With all the focus on the defense, Mullen’s sole focus on offense needs to be finding an elite signal-caller.
That’s because history tells us that if you recruit at the level that Mullen is recruiting at (8-13), you need a quarterback to help you compete with the behemoths of recruiting. Clemson did it that way, first with Tajh Boyd and then with Deshawn Watson. Now the Tigers are one of those behemoths.
Auburn did it that way too, bringing in Cam Newton to supplement a talented team on its way to a national championship as well. And while LSU has been more consistently in the top-5 than either Auburn or Clemson were, the Tigers just were able to go from middle-of-the-pack to the playoff by bringing in Joe Burrow and building an offense that allowed him to shine.
Feleipe Franks looked decent in Mullen’s offense. Kyle Trask looked a little bit better this year, and may be able to take a significant step forward in 2020. Emory Jones has flashed some ability in limited action thus far.
But the player I’m focused on potentially taking Florida to the next level is 2020 recruit Anthony Richardson.
I spent some time this week looking at how QBs are typically not assessed correctly by recruiting services, but even with that caveat, Richardson has shot up the boards this season. That’s in large part because he has improved his accuracy considerably, going from completing 49 percent of his passes in 2018 to 65 percent of his passes in 2020.
He was far less effective running the ball in 2019, but he clearly has the ability to run the ball as he averaged 9.7 yards per rush on 97 carries in 2018.
An injury limited him late in the year, so I don’t expect him to rise much further in the rankings, but he’s already enrolled and is participating in bowl practices. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t push for some playing time next year, much the way many of us expected to see Emory Jones utilized this year.
An appreciation for Dan Mullen
Because it’s recruiting season, much of this writing has probably seemed critical of Dan Mullen. But nobody could be a bigger fan of his on-field coaching and development than I am.
I was watching Syracuse basketball the other night and there were the Orange, playing the same zone defense that Jim Boeheim has been coaching since 1976. For sure, Boeheim has had plenty of success, but I suspect a lot of his heartbreak is associated with trying to fit skilled players into his scheme rather than designing his scheme around his talented players.
This year has proven that won’t be the case with Dan Mullen.
Last season, Florida was an effective running team. Mullen called running plays 61 percent of the time. In 2019 – with the offensive line a real weakness – Mullen called running plays 44 percent of the time.
This wasn’t something he went into the year thinking he would have to do. In fact, he called 27 runs and 28 passes in the opener against Miami. But when Franks went down and the offensive line couldn’t get a push against Towson, he clearly decided his best chance to win games was to hitch his wagons to Trask’s arm.
Lots of coaches wouldn’t have done that. They would have said they needed to “establish the run” and would have face a bunch of second-and-11’s after getting stuffed on first down. But Mullen was wise enough to change strategies mid-stream with a backup QB.
Florida isn’t in the Orange Bowl without him making that switch.
Third-year slumps
That being said, I think there’s a real risk that Florida takes a step back next season.
This isn’t necessarily a reflection on Mullen, but the reality that there is usually lots of attrition from transition recruiting classes. Mullen has experienced that attrition (Justin Watkins, Lucas Krull, Malik Langham, Noah Banks, John Huggins, Chris Bleich, and Randy Russell) but has also experienced an unusual level of attrition from his second class as well (Chris Steele, Jalon Jones, Diwun Black, Deyavie Hammond, and Arjei Henderson).
Not all of this is Mullen’s fault. And he will get back some of the counters for the players who didn’t sign because they didn’t qualify. But the reality is that the SEC is a league that requires depth and Florida probably won’t get to its full allotment of 85 scholarship players in 2020.
And the third year for many coaches is an issue. Nick Saban went from 8-4 to 10-3 to 8-5 in his third year at LSU. Then the Tigers went 13-1 and won the National Championship in his fourth season. Urban Meyer went 9-4 in his third year after winning a championship in his second year, then won another chip in his fourth year.
Even Steve Spurrier took a step back in his third season (9-4) before only losing six games in his next four seasons, winning four SEC Championships and a National Championship in 1996.
These are the elite of the elite coaches. For mere mortals, it is a lot worse.
Will Muschamp went 4-8 in his third year after going 11-2 the year before. Jim McElwain didn’t even make it through his third year (3-4) after winning the SEC East his first two seasons.
The point is that I’ve heard a lot of people talk about how the next step for Mullen is to beat Georgia (true) and so that game is a must-win for Florida next season. I just don’t think that’s the case.
Instead, I think 2020 is a season to identify who the all-star quarterback is going to be in the 2021 season. Because if history is any indication, that’s when Florida will be ready to compete for a real championship.
Thanks for the opportunity
I’ve never written “quick hit” segments like this before. Hopefully you’ve enjoyed it.
I never would have imagined that I’d have this opportunity when I started at SEC Country back in 2016 or when I started Read and Reaction two years ago.
Gators fans can be tough. You all are certainly quick to call me an idiot, and sometimes I admittedly deserve it. But you’ve also been incredibly gracious to accept me amongst the writers who cover the team on a daily basis and do this as a full-time job.
My goal – and I’m sure you’ll let me know whether I accomplish it or not – is to teach something new with my writing. If you’re not learning, I’m not doing my job.
So I’ll leave you with this.
One thing I’ve been humbled by this season is I’ve had a few parents of players reach out to me. Typically, it has been to express how hard it is to watch their sons get criticized when they’re giving their all to the program. Some have wondered whether their boy would have been better off going to a different program.
It’s easy to see a corner blow a coverage, a linebacker miss a tackle or a quarterback throw an interception and fire off a tweet calling them garbage. The personal nature of the attacks can be much more than that.
Sometimes criticism is fair. And certainly these players understand when they commit to a big-time program like Florida that they will be under the microscope and that the accolades with success come with the criticism when they fail.
And perhaps the players should just tune out the noise. But you should know that even if the players do just that and stay off their social media, their family members do not.
Thanks for reading.