Orange and Blue Musings — 11/25/20 Edition

By Will Miles

Ho-hum 21-point wins

Memories are funny things. 

When teams win championships, we remember them as invincible, absolutely rolling to the title against inferior opponents and never having a let-down. That makes us look at current events with much more scrutiny, expecting championship teams to be a slow build to greatness rather than having ups and downs along the way.

Fortunately, when it comes to football, we have a way of looking back at those sorts of things.

Just imagine how LSU fans felt after surrendering 402 rushing yards to Ole Miss last year in November. Or how about in 2018 when Clemson just barely escaped Syracuse. Or in 2017 when Alabama went into the fourth quarter against Mississippi State down 21-17 before pulling out a 31-24 win.

That’s especially true for programs that haven’t already scaled the mountain. Just look at the 2009 Alabama team that beat Florida for the SEC Championship. 38-20 over Kentucky? 20-6 over South Carolina? And of course, the 12-10 victory over Tennessee on Terrence Cody’s blocked field goal.

There are games where you come out flat. There are games where everything doesn’t go perfectly. The fact that it felt that way for Florida this weekend against Vanderbilt is a natural progression of a college football season. 

The fact that it felt that way and Florida still won by 21 says something about the ceiling for this particular squad.

“Average” Trask performance

I’ve seen some people say that this wasn’t a great Trask performance. I disagree.

Not only was Trask 26-35 (74%) for 383 yards and 3 TDs, but he also did that with multiple drops along the way. His QB rating of 194.5 was elite and he did so while getting quite a bit of pressure from Vanderbilt’s front-3 or front-4. The team also couldn’t really run the ball in the first half and yet he carried them down the field and to a 17-10 lead. 

While this was a great Trask performance, it was actually very average…for him. His 194.5 QB rating was just a tick below his season total (197.1). He hasn’t had any game less than 169.9 and except for Arkansas (250.7) hasn’t been above 201.8. Saturday’s performance is exactly the average we should expect from Kyle Trask.

I hope Gators fans appreciate what they’re seeing. After years of absolute futility at the position, Florida is now at a place where “average” is better than any performance we’ve seen at the position since Tebow left, and maybe even during the Tebow era. The absolute consistency of Trask to put up the same general performance week after week is remarkable.

Appreciate it while it’s here because whether it’s Emory Jones, Anthony Richardson or Carlos Del Rio, those are some big shoes to fill. 

Offensive line play

If you want to point at why the Florida offense didn’t look as explosive against Vanderbilt as it has in prior games, just look at the offensive line.

Trask was sacked on the last play of the first half on a three-man rush, and it was indicative of what was happening the entire first half. The Gators couldn’t keep the pocket clean, they couldn’t generate push in the running game, and consequently, the offense was much more feast-or-famine than you’d like it to be.

We all know that the problems in the passing game stem from the right side of the line, particularly right tackle Jean Delance. Break-downs in pass protection elsewhere on the line have been more rare, which means that’s what sticks out to most fans.

But when it comes to the running game, the story gets a little more murky (thanks to secstatcat.com for the sortable database).

The Gators basically spread their running game equally across the field. They run 26.1% outside the tackle to the left, 26.6% behind the left tackle and guard, 27.1% behind the right tackle and guard and 20.3% outside the tackle to the right.

But the Gators average 6.33 yards per rush outside left and 5.38 yards per rush outside right. They only average 4.36 yards per rush inside right but that drops to 3.4 yards per rush inside left. 

So yes, there are things I’d like to see Delance improve on when it comes to pass protection. And yes, it’s frustrating when a drive gets stymied because Trask doesn’t have time to throw. But part of why he’s having to throw on third down is because a hole closed up too quickly on the left side on a second-down running play.

And that has nothing to do with Jean Delance.

Significance of Kemore Gamble

Kemore Gamble and Keon Zipperer have stepped up in the absence of Kyle Pitts. 

That has helped the Gators offense continue to move, even though Pitts is an NFL-ready talent and a cheat code whenever Trask gets in trouble.

But beyond keeping the offense moving in Pitts’ absence, I’m really interested to see whether their ability to step-in leads to Dan Mullen taking advantage of their skills in a more significant way moving forward when Pitts returns.

The New England Patriots did this in a big way when they drafted both Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski in 2010. Hernandez was never known as much of a blocker, but he was extremely skilled and could be moved all over the field, including in the backfield as a running back. Gronkowski obviously is a hall-of-fame level tight end, in many ways because he is such a devastating blocker.

Gamble has that ability to block. But if he is now also a threat in the passing game as he has shown, that should really open up some options for Florida. Because when you come into the huddle with two tight ends, two wide receivers and a running back, the defense doesn’t put a nickel or dime defense on the field.

But then if you have the ability to shift to have Pitts out wide, Gamble out wide and Malik Davis out wide, well now you have match-ups you like somewhere on linebackers.

That only works though if one of your two tight end threats can really block. Because otherwise you just bring in the nickel and dare the opposition to run the ball. Gamble can block, so we’ll see if Mullen can use him as another way to create mismatches for Pitts and Davis.

Defensive breakdowns

I’m less concerned about some of the defensive breakdowns against Vanderbilt than others may be.

The Gators gave up 406 yards to Commodores, but had they not given up the 58-yard TD throw to Amir Abdur-Rahman late in the third quarter, this one would feel completely different.

Vanderbilt only had three explosive plays, and I don’t think you can chalk any of them up to mental mistakes. On two, the corner was in man-to-man coverage and was right there but was just unable to make the play. On the third (the throw to Abdur-Rahman), the safeties just didn’t tackle well enough.

Tackling is important, not doubt. But the concerning thing for me about the defense coming out of the Arkansas game was the number of mental mistakes that were being made. When the defensive calls weren’t getting in fast enough and the defense wasn’t set on the first drive of the game, it seemed that those sorts of things might continue.

But the Gators settled in and eliminated those mental mistakes for the most part from the second quarter on. This team isn’t good enough on that side of the ball to eliminate all of its physical mistakes, but the offense is good enough to overcome them if they can force a couple of punts.

What I’m watching for moving forward is whether they can limit the mental hiccups.

Challenge of Vanderbilt

It’s hard for me to get mad at the team for being a little bit lackadaisical against Vanderbilt. I mean, I did a video preview instead of my normal preview article because it just didn’t seem like it was worth the effort since it was only the Commodores. 

If that attitude invaded the Gators team somewhat, then it shouldn’t be a surprise. We knew this was a possibility when COVID hit after the Texas A&M game and it became clear that Florida was going to have to play eight straight weeks to win the SEC.

The team saw an 0-6 Vanderbilt on the other side, saw that they struggle on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball and decided to take a less intense approach at practice this week. Mullen stated after the game that he wasn’t surprised at the performance given the level of practice.

That shouldn’t be a surprise. The Georgia game was the SEC East Super Bowl. The only thing that matters now is winning until the SEC Super Bowl on December 19. 

Florida does need to be careful. If you just go through the motions against SEC competition, one can rise up to bit you pretty quickly.

But that wasn’t the case for Vanderbilt.

Orange slices on the road

Dan Mullen can’t win.

If he rails about filling the Swamp, people get upset. If he takes COVID seriously enough that he has the team sit outside during half-time to maintain social distancing, a subset of people get upset about that too.

Look, I think Mullen can sometimes be abrasive. The Darth Vader bit was certainly over the top, especially after the fight against Missouri. But if we’re going to require large swaths of players be quarantined when one player tests positive for COVID, and if Florida already has proof that one or two players can cause significant spread due to a road trip, and if we acknowledge that Florida has a real shot to win the SEC, I don’t blame Mullen one bit for taking every precaution necessary to keep his players healthy.

If Vanderbilt (or it’s student writers) is insulted by that, they should build better locker rooms. It’s not Florida’s fault that even in pre-COVID times, the best place to socially distance when playing the Commodores is in the stands.

No COVID implications….yet

Florida announced today that there weren’t any new COVID positives in the football program this week.

Given the precautions Florida took, you certainly hoped that would be the case, but it was the first true road trip – certainly the first one on a plane – that the team had taken since the outbreak related to Texas A&M. That also means that Florida seems to have built a blueprint for how to deal with the final road trip of the year up to Knoxville on December 5.

I’d expect very similar precautions on that trip to the ones that were taken on this one. I don’t know whether Tennessee’s visitor’s locker rooms are up to snuff, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Florida get ready in the hotel room and take the road trip extremely seriously.

That’s important because there isn’t any more leeway in the schedule. Rescheduling the LSU game is already occupying the off week between the end of the regular season and the SEC Championship. And it doesn’t seem like the SEC Championship is likely to get moved back.

Maybe I’m reading too much into the extra precautions that Florida took on this particular road trip. But what it says to me is that Mullen knows he has a team that can compete for a championship. Can it get the job done? Well, time will tell. 

But you don’t sequester guys to their rooms, tape up in the hotel room, wear N95 masks on the plane and have coaches going up and down aisles to make sure everyone has the mask over their mouth and nose just to play in the Orange Bowl. 

You do it because you believe you have a shot at winning it all.

Kentucky on the horizon

Kentucky is up next, and next to Georgia has been the team that has given Dan Mullen the most trouble.

The Wildcats beat Mullen in the Swamp in 2018 pretty soundly, 27-16. Yes, Kentucky returned a fumble for a touchdown that extended their lead, but that was after Florida scored late and then Kentucky essentially ran out the clock.

The game was more favorable for the Gators in 2019, as Kyle Trask saw his first major action and Florida came screaming back from a 21-10 deficit with 19 fourth-quarter points.

Regardless, there isn’t going to be a single player on the Kentucky team who is intimidated by the Gators. And you would expect that they remember how that game ended last season and would like to make up for it.

Florida’s defense has been making lots of QBs look like world beaters, so that’s probably what we should expect from Kentucky QB Terry Wilson. Wilson torched the Gators in 2018 but was injured for the match-up in 2019. I don’t think there’s any way Florida wins that game last year if Wilson is behind center.

Kentucky’s offense has been putrid this year. But so was Vanderbilt’s. The difference is that the Wildcat’s defense is much better than the Commodores.

So again, I suspect this one is going to come down to Kyle Trask and the Florida offense. A slow start in this one and it may end up being a nail biter in the Swamp. 

 Heisman race

When it comes to the Heisman race, it’s pretty clear that it is going to come down to Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Trask.

COVID-19 may have cost Lawrence, as he missed two games due to contracting the virus and then had the late cancellation of the game against FSU this past weekend. Ohio State only plays seven games and Indiana was the best team on the schedule. Fields had his worst game, going 18-30 for 300 yards and 2 TDs, but also 3 INTs that kept the Hoosiers in the game. 

Jones actually didn’t play great this past weekend either. But Alabama absolutely eviscerated Kentucky 63-3 so nobody’s going to care considering the Tide already beat Texas A&M and Georgia.

That means the trophy probably comes down to the SEC Championship Game. You can’t ask for more than that if you’re Trask. Beat Alabama, win the SEC and play well and the Heisman is yours. Now, obviously playing well against Nick Saban and beating the Tide is a huge challenge.

But that’s why the trophy is given to the best player in college football.

Raymond Hines
Back when I was a wee one I had to decide if I wanted to live dangerously and become a computer hacker or start a website devoted to the Gators. I chose the Gators instead of the daily thrill of knowing my next meal might be at Leavenworth. No regrets, however. The Gators have been and will continue to be my addiction. What makes this so much fun is that the more addicted I become to the Florida Gators, the more fun I have doing innovative things to help bring all the Gator news that is news (and some that isn’t) to Gator fans around the world. Andy Warhol said we all have our 15 minutes of fame. Thanks to Gator Country, I’m working on a half hour. Thanks to an understanding daughter that can’t decide if she’s going to be the female version of Einstein, Miss Universe, President of the United States or a princess, I get to spend my days doing what I’ve done since Gus Garcia and I founded Gator Country back in 1996. Has it really been over a decade and a half now?