By Will Miles
2020 Recruiting Class
National Signing Day was a dud for Florida.
The Gators did officially ink wide receiver Xzavier Henderson and defensive end Princely Umanmielen, two blue-chip recruits. Of course, the Gators also missed on safety Avantae Williams, who chose to instead go to Miami.
Of course, we’d always like to see Florida finish strong and signing Williams would have provided that. But I previewed signing day and it was clear that Florida wasn’t going to get much higher than seventh nationally. So yes, it’s disappointing not to get that extra spot but it isn’t the end of the world.
Instead, I think it’s worth noting that Jim McElwain’s three recruiting classes had point totals of 227.5, 261.0 and 251.2. Mullen’s first three recruiting classes have had point totals of 259.6, 276.9 and 272.6, which doesn’t include any of the transfers he’s brought in.
No, Mullen doesn’t recruit at a Ron Zook or Urban Meyer level. But he’s recruiting at a Will Muschamp level – especially on defense – and if he’s as big of an offensive guru as his first two years at Florida suggest, the Gators are in a really good position as a program.
Avantae Williams commits to Miami
I don’t want to ignore Avantae Williams’ commitment to Miami because I do think it’s important.
The fact that Williams chose to go to the Hurricanes on its face isn’t too problematic. Miami does have a history of elite safety play (Ed Reed and Sean Taylor) and Manny Diaz is a defensive guy.
But this should put a death knell for one particular narrative. Every time Florida gets beat on the trail by Clemson, Alabama or Georgia, some fans point towards the coming facilities with hope that those upgrades will lead to better recruiting.
But Miami’s facilities pale in comparison to Florida’s.
Maybe Williams has connections in Miami that he couldn’t pass up. Maybe he liked the depth chart better and thought he’d get early playing time. Maybe he has always grown up a Hurricanes fan and dreamed of always running out of the tunnel with the smoke and that stupid ibis.
Or maybe the Florida staff is recruiting at a good – but not elite – level because that’s what this staff is. I noted the point totals above and if we go solely by those then Florida’s 2019 class was actually more talented than the 2020 class.
Now, that 2019 class had so many players who never made it to campus that I doubt that is actually true. But it does suggest that this current staff may have capped out its pure recruiting ability and just waiting on facilities isn’t going to magically improve things.
Tim Brewster Hire
While not officially announced by the university at the time of this writing, it does appear that Tim Brewster is going to be the next tight ends coach for the Gators (his information has been removed from North Carolina’s staff page).
This is fantastic news for the Gators. Brewster is a recruiting dynamo, having helped Mack Brown build North Carolina into a top-10 team twice in Brown’s first stop in Chapel Hill.
Brewster then followed Brown to Texas, helping build the team that took down USC in the Rose Bowl. The star of those teams was undoubtedly Vince Young. His lead recruiter? Tim Brewster.
Brewster then went to the Chargers for three years where he was the tight ends coach for an emerging player named Antonio Gates. After a short stop with the Broncos, he was named head coach at Minnesota, where he went 15-30. But that lack of success wasn’t because of recruiting, as Brewster improved the Gophers ranking from 59th the year before he arrived to 48th in year 1, 26th in year 2 and 35th in year 3.
After a short stop under Dan Mullen at Mississippi State, Brewster landed where most Gators fans know him from: at FSU under Jimbo Fisher. He was the tight ends coach and recruiting coordinator for the Seminoles from 2013-2017, most famously keeping running back Dalvin Cook from the Gators. In his five years at FSU, the ‘Noles finished 11th, 4th, 3rd, 3rd, and 6th nationally in recruiting.
This is a big addition for Mullen and addresses the one thing he still hasn’t proven to be elite at yet: recruiting.
Larry Scott Departure
Obviously if Brewster is coming in, it’s because of the departure of another staff member, in this case Larry Scott.
I’m not sure you can argue with the job Scott did in Gainesville. From helping keep the commitment of Kyle Pitts and gain the commitment of Lucas Krull during the transition from McElwain to Mullen, to bringing in elite tight end talent like Keon Zipperer, Scott certainly has brought in quality players to the program.
But Kyle Pitts was the biggest weapon that Florida had in 2019 and was Kyle Trask’s safety blanket. That is in large part due to Pitts’ skill. But some of it is due to Scott making sure he was in the right place at the right time, and was improving enough as a blocker to see the field.
Scott leaves to become the head coach at Howard University, one of the country’s historically black colleges and universities (HBCU). That isn’t a move that most coaches at a place like Florida make, and it certainly isn’t the most financially lucrative one. I think it says something about his priorities that he made that decision.
Upon his departure, there were players on twitter paying homage to Scott, some of whom he didn’t even recruit. Again, I think it speaks volumes about the way he represented Florida while he was on staff and what kind of coach he is.
Good luck Coach Scott!
Charlie Strong Rumors
Former Gators tight end Ben Troupe wrote a piece for Saturday Down South essentially saying that Charlie Strong to Florida as an analyst was a done deal.
While that has yet to be confirmed by Strong or UF, it does make a ton of sense. Strong was one of the best recruiters on Urban Meyer’s staff. He knows Dan Mullen from his time on that staff. And after tough stops at Texas and USF, he probably needs a little bit of time to lick his wounds and regroup.
Because make no mistake, Strong is an excellent coach.
Those Meyers teams are remembered for their offensive prowess, and deservedly so. But the 2006 title specifically was due in large part to Strong’s defense. That defense ranked 12th in yards per play allowed compared to 18th in yards per play gained on offense. The defense then ranked 10th in the same stat during the 2008 title run as well.
Strong then went to Louisville and turned a program around a defense that had finished 92nd defensively in yards per play allowed in 2009 into one that finished 27th in 2010.
Yes, the Texas and USF stops are warts. But to believe that Strong suddenly had the game pass him by is foolhardy. I suspect that a year as an analyst will help him discover a few things to use in his next stop.
And I also suspect that if he comes on in that position for the Gators that Todd Grantham will learn a few things too.
2021 Recruiting
If you look at the numbers, one thing you’ll notice is that recruiting classes are typically set by the time the season starts.
That was definitely true this season, when Florida ranked 10th nationally and 6th in the SEC on August 7 and finished 8th nationally and 6th in the SEC on signing day. In fact, the order (Georgia, Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn, Florida) was the exact same back in August as it finished on Wednesday.
What that means is that early returns in recruiting become critical. If you start slow, you’re going to have to play significant catch-up over the summer. If you start fast, you should be able to maintain that momentum through signing day.
Well, Florida has started pretty fast. The Gators have 10 commits already, with an average 247 ranking of 91.5. That’s nearly a full point higher than Florida finished in 2020.
Perhaps more importantly, Mullen already has his QB in the fold in Loganville, GA 4-star recruit Carlos Del Rio. Not only does that mean that Florida has filled that slot, it also means that every other offensive recruit knows who will be their QB when they visit campus. Del Rio can be a powerful recruiter for Mullen as he implores skill players to come be a Gator.
That couldn’t happen in 2020 as Florida went after eventual Georgia commit Carson Beck back in March. Perhaps not coincidently, Anthony Richardson decommitted before recommitting in April. Florida has had Del Rio in the fold since July.
That makes a difference.
Turnover/Attrition
Florida obviously has to replace a lot of players coming into 2020.
Feleipe Franks, Van Jefferson, Lamical Perine, Josh Hammond, Freddie Swain, and Tyrie Cleveland are gone from the offense. Jabari Zuniga, Jonathan Greenard, David Reese and C.J. Henderson are gone from the defense.
That means young players are going to have to step in. But those players may be younger than we expect.
Mullen’s 2018 transition class was relatively small (20 players) and has already lost seven players to discipline, health or transfer. His 2019 class was also not full, but this time it was because of non-qualifiers, Visa and disciplinary issues and the weird saga of Chris Steele.
The end result is that Florida only has 33 players from those two classes who are on-campus and ready to contribute. The low numbers of signees is part of why Florida has been able to bring in so many transfers. The high levels of attrition is why they’ve needed to bring in so many transfers.
At the end of the day, Florida has upgraded by bringing in players like Brenton Cox, Lorenzo Lingard and Justin Shorter. But Mullen is going to have to stop losing a bunch of his players from every class before they ever step on the field to build a consistent winner.
Home-and-Home with Cal
Florida announced this week that it has agreed to a home-and-home football series with Cal.
This is all part of Athletic Director Scott Stricklin’s emphasis on scheduling out of conference games. The Gators now have games against USF, Miami, Utah, Colorado, Texas and now Cal on the upcoming schedule. While the Golden Bears are hardly the class of the Pac-12 at this point, they also are way better than Eastern Washington.
The flood of Power-5 opponents does two things. First, it is a clear acknowledgment by the Florida administration that multiple cupcake games every year are not going to maintain attendance. It also sets up Florida to have marquee games early in the season against out of conference opponents.
That last part is what’s really important. With the SEC entering into a new TV agreement with ESPN, it is going to have to keep its new TV partner happy. Part of that will be giving ESPN quality programming every week.
I still think TV will end up driving further expansion, which I believe is bad for the game. But this is one area where the dollars are making college football change for the better.
Legislation to limit coach’s salaries
A couple of weeks ago, a federal law was proposed to give schools an anti-trust exemption that would allow them to cap coach’s salaries.
This is lunacy.
Now, I agree with the legislators’ sentiments that coaches are paid at obscene levels. But universities have already given schools the ability to cap wages for its “student athletes,” which is part of why coaches get paid so much.
Instead of meddling with the free market, perhaps the legislators would be better served to allow the players to collectively bargain to get a piece of the TV revenue pie. Because the truth is that Nick Saban does drive revenue at Alabama much more than any economics professor.
We can have a discussion about whether football should be more important than economics, but the reality is that it is. To cap coaching salaries isn’t going to change that reality.
It’s just going to have some sort of unintended consequence where someone will get rich off of the product, it just won’t be the players.
Mike White on the brink
I’ve been pretty optimistic about Mike White in this column.
Just two weeks ago, I indicated that Florida would make the tournament because they had an easy stretch upcoming. Well, since that time the Gators have lost to Mississippi State, barely beat Vanderbilt on the road, came back from way down against Georgia to eek out a win and got obliterated by an average Ole Miss team.
A large portion of the fan base has had it with White. The excuses after games have become tiresome, particularly as they start to match some of the same platitudes that we heard from Will Muschamp when he was struggling on the football field.
I wrote last year that the expectation for the 2019-2020 season should be single-digit losses. The Gators currently sit at 14-9.
After every loss this season, Twitter has come alive with White critics arguing with White defenders. That’s a pretty common occurrence for any Florida program, and likely a sign of health.
After the Ole Miss loss, there wasn’t much of an argument on Twitter at all. The critics didn’t feel the need to point out what they think is obvious. And the defenders didn’t care enough to defend someone they are getting less and less sure is the solution.
And that’s an issue for Scott Stricklin. Because as likeable as White may be – and for as expensive as it may be to let him go – it is something he is going to have to consider. Because fans who are passionate enough to loudly express that they’re unhappy with a coach still contribute to the bottom line.
It’s when things get silent that the money stops.