By Will Miles
“Dan Mullen Rule”
By now you’ve probably heard about the “Dan Mullen Rule”, that limits players on the field before the game to wearing their jersey with the number clearly visible. It is a response to Mullen’s proclivity for having his players warm up in their pants and t-shirts only. It’s a new rule for the NCAA this season, and Dan Mullen is obviously not all that pleased.
But in my view, it’s much ado about nothing.
Is it stupid and sort of petty to make players wear their jerseys? Yes, it is. But was it stupid and sort of petty for Mullen to gain an edge by keeping the opponent from knowing exactly who was going to play for as long as possible? Yes, it was.
The reality is that this rule will help fans know who is and is not playing sooner. That’s a good thing for college football. It’s a small edge for Mullen that really is inconsequential in the actual outcome of the game.
And if he really wants to pay attention to fine details regarding his players’ uniforms, I suggest he spend some time on making sure they’re wearing the right wristbands.
Relaxing defensive substitution rule
The rule that Mullen should really be paying attention to is the relaxation in defensive substitutions that was passed by the NCAA for this season.
The goal is to avoid the trickery that Auburn played on Alabama last year, having its punter on the field as a wide receiver, making the defensive personnel decision much more difficult for Alabama. The result was that Alabama got a 12-men-on-the-field penalty that pretty much sealed the game. Defenses will now be allowed to have more time to make a substitution in that kind of situation.
Gus Malzahn designed the play to get that penalty. He looked at the rules and found a way to exploit them, which is exactly what a coach of a team with less talent has to do to pull off an upset of Alabama.
So it has me asking, will this impact Mullen’s ability to dictate to the defense by splitting out running backs and tight ends wide? And perhaps more broadly, what other rules are out there that Florida can exploit in the Cocktail Party?
2020 is a huge year for Mullen and the Gators. With all of the upheaval – both from the virus and from defections – there’s an opportunity to get Georgia.
Now is the time to find that little edge that maybe pushes things the Gators way.
Sloppy early games – who does it favor?
Mullen said in his most recent press conference that he expects there to be some sloppy play early, so that made me think about who that might favor.
I think it favors the Gators, pretty significantly.
There are things you can criticize about Kyle Trask, but he gets the ball out really quickly. So if a left tackle misses an assignment, he’ll probably be able to get the ball out. If there’s a miscommunication at the mesh point, he should be able to prevent a massive turnover.
And on the defensive side of the ball, again there are things you can criticize about the safety play last year, but Florida has four guys with lots of experience back there. They should be able to keep things in front of them even if mistakes are made. Maybe they get beat physically, but broken coverages should be at a minimum.
Whether the top end of this team is going to be good enough to win the SEC is an open question. But sloppy play at the start shouldn’t be something that dooms the Gators.
Ole Miss is coming
That’s a good thing because Ole Miss is coming up on the schedule quickly. It’s an interesting choice for new head coach Lane Kiffin as far as who to start at QB, and certainly a difference in styles depending on who he does.
Door number one involves former Gators commit Matt Corral, who averaged 7.7 yards per attempt but 2.4 yards per rush. Door number two is John Rhys Plumlee, who ran for over 1,000 yards at 6.6 yards per attempt but only averaged 6.1 yards per attempt through the air.
Plumlee was electric last year at times, but really struggled in the passing game. But if I were a betting man, I’d bet on Kiffin selecting him for two reasons. First, Kiffin is going to look at his skills in the running game and figure he can at least make him adequate in the passing game, which would end up as really good QB play.
The second is that he completed 64% of his passes his junior and senior years of high school. That isn’t elite-level accuracy, but it does indicate that he does have room to improve significantly from his true freshman season.
If he’s shown that kind of ability in camp, Kiffin will have to start him on September 26 in Oxford.
Can Todd Grantham get aggressive?
Last year against Georgia, Gators fans were incensed when defensive coordinator Todd Grantham laid back in a zone against the Bulldogs. But that’s what they’re likely to see again against Ole Miss, especially in Plumlee is the starter.
Against running QBs, playing man-to-man opens up the defense to big runs by the opposing QB, as the defensive backs are not looking into the backfield. Additionally, for a player like Plumlee, you want to make him attack you from the pocket and blitzes open up running lanes.
Zones do have the disadvantage of putting defensive backs into coverage for a longer time. While Florida got burned when they were aggressive against Kentucky’s Terry Wilson two years ago on a couple of third downs, it was the defensive backs (the safeties in particular) who got burned on long throws when the Gators were in a zone on the plays that went for touchdowns.
But against a team like Ole Miss – and a player like Plumlee – the threat of a run is at least as big as the threat of a big pass. I’m betting Grantham eschews being aggressive on a regular basis to just play coverage and force Plumlee to beat the Gators from the pocket.
Can Dan Mullen get aggressive?
On the offensive side of the ball, I think Gators fans want to see Mullen open it up just a little bit more.
After Lamical Perine broke a long run for a touchdown against Virginia, that’s what I was expecting to see in last year’s bowl game. Instead, what we saw was a series of fits and starts that suggested that Mullen wasn’t too comfortable completely opening up his offense. We saw the same thing against Florida State, where Florida kept toying with FSU and the ‘Noles just couldn’t do anything about it.
How does that happen? Well, the first thing is Florida needs to establish the running game.
As I’ve written on my website, the addition of Stewart Reese should really help there. The right side of the Gators offensive line was the weak side in the running game. The Gators had 34 explosive (10+ yard) plays running left to only 17 going right and averaged 3-full yards more (7.1 vs. 4.1) on outside runs on the left side versus the right.
Florida runs some sort of play action on just about every play, but most of the time in some sort of read-option capacity. Ask yourself this question: Did you ever see Florida run play-action out of a power running formation and have Trask go deep out of a 7-step drop?
There were opportunities to do so. As the Gators running game struggled, they went to some more power sets with Trask under center. But they never faked out of those sets because they didn’t trust the offensive line to hold up under that kind of stress.
If Mullen thinks his line is improved, expect him to take one of those shots early in the year, if not against Ole Miss then against Texas A&M. That’ll be the sign that he’s about to open things up in 2020.
17,000 Fans
Florida announced this week that they are going to allow fans into the Swamp but only at about 20% capacity. That equates to about 17,000 fans.
That’s certainly going to impact home-field advantage. But it’s also an interesting economic experiment.
Last season, there was a ton of consternation among the Florida fan base about the number of empty seats in the Swamp, particularly against lesser opponents. With more competition for eyeballs these days, apparently going to the games was not the must-see event it had been in the past.
Florida AD Scott Stricklin responded by announcing a series of out-of-conference match-ups against much stronger opponents than Florida has typically played over the past decade. Florida never would have chosen to limit the number of people coming to the games, but they’re about to understand the true power of their product in the smartphone era.
I suspect that’s why tickets aren’t just being sold to students. This is an opportunity to understand what kind of revenue streams could be demanded by limiting seat capacity and replacing them with high-end suites.
Maybe I’m a cynic, but if the tickets start going for high prices on secondary markets, expect suite construction to commence rather quickly.
The Jamie Newman Experiment
So Jamie Newman’s career at Georgia ends before it even begins, as he announced he is sitting out the season due to coronavirus and preparing for the NFL Draft.
That leaves J.T. Daniels, D’Wan Mathis, Carson Beck and Stetson Bennett. One thing you’ll see if you look up any of those players on 247Sports is the following: “Pro-Style QB”.
Jamie Newman had the kind of arm where it’s not like Georgia is going from John Rhys Plumlee to Kyle Trask, but it’s going to be a transition for Todd Monken regardless. You have to believe that coronavirus put a strain on his ability to prepare Newman, and now he’ll have to get Daniels up to speed just as fast.
Daniels may be very good, but Monken isn’t going to be able to spend the same amount of time with Mathis or Beck when he has to focus on getting Daniels ready. That means if he is ineffective or gets injured, the backup in Athens is going to be drinking from a fire hose.
This was always going to be the case in Georgia, where the virus’ impact on the ability to bring in a new offensive staff with a new system was always going to be a difficult tightrope to walk.
Newman’s departure just makes that walk a little more difficult.
2020 Worst Case
6-4. This is absolutely the worse-case scenario, but it is possible.
What if Texas A&M takes a major step forward? Even in down years, LSU always plays Florida tough. And what if J.T. Daniels delivers on his 5-star promise?
One thing that is going to be interesting about the 2020 season is whether players decide to bail when they see some adversity. That’s where the worst-case scenario comes in.
A&M, LSU and Georgia are in the first five games. If Florida is 2-3, do players who reportedly were considering sitting out the year decide it’s not worth it? Do players who have injuries they normally would play through decide to back out and get fully healthy? Does Mullen decide it’s time to play his true freshmen because there is no redshirt year to burn given the NCAA’s extra year of eligibility?
Let me be clear that I think this is a really remote scenario. And certainly this worst-case scenario is way better than what’s on Arkansas’ horizon.
But the virus makes this something that’s in-play in a way that it probably wouldn’t be otherwise.
2020 Best Case
National Championship. This is the first year since Dan Mullen took over that his best case scenario is the ultimate prize. He exceeded expectations in 2018 and 2019 with teams that were limited in various aspects.
There are still likely to be some limitations, but this is the most complete team Mullen has had thus far. Combine that with the big questions at Georgia, LSU and even Alabama and Florida has a legitimate shot to win the SEC.
And when you win the SEC, you end up with a legitimate shot to win the whole thing.
Combine that with the limited number of teams competing with the Big 10 and Pac 12 opting out, and the SEC is likely to get (at least) two teams into the playoff. So even with a loss to Alabama, a 9-2 or 10-1 SEC runner-up is probably making the Final Four.
And give Mullen a few weeks to prepare and I do think he’ll have a legitimate shot at bringing home the hardware.