By Will Miles
Time for real football
We’ve gotten the appetizers.
It was fun to watch Georgia Tech beat Florida State, let UCF bark a little bit after beating the Yellow Jackets, see Clemson dismantle the Citadel and humor Miami fans as they claim the Hurricanes are back after beating what looks to be a poor Louisville defense.
But now, the main course is here.
Players and fans may take offense to that statement. After all, the SEC is just one of the Power 5 conferences. But overwhelmingly, the SEC contributes more players to the NFL, produces more All Americans and contributes to winning (10 of the last 14 national champions by 4 different programs).
Like it or not America, the SEC is the dominant power in the College Football. That’s going to be exacerbated in a weird season where the SEC will play 10 games while the Big Ten plays only eight.
The debate if Ohio State goes 8-0 is going to get heated if they get into a playoff over a 9-1 or even 8-2 SEC runner-up. It’ll just ramp up even more when the Buckeyes finish fourth again after getting blasted in the semifinal.
Offensive line concerns
Dan Mullen announced at his last press conference that presumed starting center Ethan White has undergone surgery and will be out at least against Ole Miss.
All reports out of camp were that White was really pushing the pile up-front. That’s a critical part of offensive line play, as a center who can move the tackle back – or at least hold the point of attack – allows the guards to pull around with a head of steam to help facilitate the run game.
White’s replacement – Brett Heggie – played guard a bunch last year. He may have been in more of a utility role (or that role may have gone to starting left guard Richard Gouraige) had White been available because it sounds like Mississippi State transfer Stewart Reese had locked down the right guard position.
Regardless, in a season where depth is going to be really important, the injury of White can’t be undersold. A big part of offensive line success is cohesiveness. We saw that in 2018 when the line really struggled early against Kentucky, especially on handling stunts. That had been cleaned up by the end of the year.
Mullen said White should be back “soon.” Let’s hope it’s soon enough that the line can build some cohesion before having to take on LSU and Georgia.
Delance at right tackle
Perhaps the biggest surprise on the offensive side of the ball is Jean Delance starting at right tackle.
Many Gators fans are ready to write-off Delance after last season. After all, the right hand side of the line really struggled in 2019 and Delance was a big part of that.
News came out this week that Chris Bleich had some significant hip injuries playing at right guard last year and word is that Delance played a lot of last year hurt as well. But one thing I think is being overlooked is why Delance was getting beat.
When you look at the film, he rarely was getting physically dominated. Rather, the issues for Delance typically had to do with knowing his assignment and communication with the guard on that side. This happened often for the entire line, and was particularly visible against LSU.
You can look at that in two ways. Either Delance is going to struggle because you would have expected him to be able to pick things up quicker. Or he is going to excel because his issues aren’t getting beat physically and a year of experience should really help.
I don’t think we can expect Delance to be All-SEC. But he doesn’t have to be for the offensive line to take a major step forward.
Pierce or Davis
The starting line-up included running backs Dameon Pierce and Malik Davis listed as co-starters.
This is a surprise for Gators fans who’ve watched Davis end up in Mullen’s dog house last year and struggle to stay on the field the past two seasons.
But here’s the thing. Perhaps the most difficult player for Florida to replace on offense from last year is Lamical Perine. Perine had 132 carries, but he also had 40 receptions. And he was excellent in pass protection.
To replace all three facets of the running game likely is going to require a group effort. For all of Perine’s faults, he was versatile enough that the defense never knew what was coming when he was on the field. Just like in 2016 when Jordan Scarlett didn’t get a ton of carries until his pass protection improved, I suspect Florida is going to have to search for the running back who provides the most versatility rather than just the guy who’s the best runner.
Hopefully that guy turns out to be the same person, but I do think Florida fans have likely taken the skill set that Perine brought over the past three seasons a little bit for granted.
Where’s Lingard?
Third on the running back depth chart is……Nay’Quan Wright?
By all accounts, Wright has had a good camp, but you do have to wonder about the absence of transfer 5-star back Lorenzo Lingard. That’s doubly surprising considering that Lingard has shown an ability to return kicks and punts, yet isn’t listed there either.
You can take this one of two ways. Either Lingard is struggling to adjust and it may be a while before we see him out there. Or perhaps Wright just did a good job of winning the third position on the depth chart and Mullen is going to make Lingard win it as the outsider coming into the program.
Regardless, I’d be very surprised if Lingard doesn’t play a big role on special teams at some point this year. He’s too talented to not utilize his skills to try and turn the tide with a big return or kick block.
Kick returners telling us something?
The depth chart lists Kadarius Toney and Jacob Copeland as the main options to return kicks and punts. This worries me.
Toney and Copeland are starting receivers. Florida got away with having Freddie Swain returning kicks last year, but Florida also had incredible depth at wide receiver. With depth at receiver being a potential issue in 2020, it surprises me that Mullen would put two of his main targets in a position to get hurt. Remember, Swain sprained an ankle returning punts in 2018.
What this suggests to me is that either Mullen really likes his receiver depth or that he doesn’t trust any of his other players on special teams.
If it’s the former, it’s absolutely great news, especially considering Justin Shorter and Xzavier Henderson are back-ups. But if it’s the latter and Toney or Copeland go down on a return, the Florida offense could really stagnate.
No Kyree Campbell
On the defensive side of the ball, Kyree Campbell is the notable name that is missing.
There are some rumors that he might be looking to opt out of the season. That’s a big deal for Florida’s defense.
Campbell has excelled in Todd Grantham’s scheme in both 2018 and 2019. He had 37 tackles in 2018 and 39 in 2019, all while seemingly being an afterthought to transfer Adam Schuler and higher ranked recruits Tedarrell Slaton and Elijah Conliffe. Conliffe is out because of injury, Schuler has graduated and Slaton has been inconsistent.
Grantham’s scheme excels when he has a big guy up-front who can occupy multiple blockers and leave the guys on the edges in one-on-one matchups. Campbell isn’t a star. He hasn’t been able to get consistent push to collapse the pocket, but depth on the defensive line is always critical in the SEC.
True Freshman 5-star recruit Gervon Dexter better be good quickly. Florida’s going to need him up-front.
C.J. McWilliams a Star?
Perhaps the most controversial starter on the Gators depth chart is C.J. McWilliams.
McWilliams really struggled in 2018 against Georgia, subbing in for the injured Marco Wilson on the outside. Georgia continually picked on him the minute he was in the game (the same happened against LSU as well that year, but nobody remembers because Florida won that game), and he gave up big plays that led to Bulldog points.
What fans might not remember about that season is that McWilliams was also a significant reason for the turnaround in 2018, including a play against Vanderbilt that I believe completely turned the tide.
Fans can’t have it both ways. When I discuss recruiting and indicate I’d like to see it improve, I’m told that Mullen is a prime developer of talent. If that’s the case, then McWilliams shouldn’t be a lost cause after having an up-and-down 2018 and Achilles tear in 2019.
I think it’s fair to question whether the McWilliams is going to be fully back from the injury. That’s a devastating injury for someone who relies on quick back-and-forth movement like a corner.
But I also think it’s fair to question whether McWilliams struggled because he was put on an island on the outside against a Georgia team that had three guys drafted into the NFL that year. Perhaps moving him inside to the Star position will be a better fit.
True Freshmen
I always think it’s interesting to see opening the year where true freshmen are placed on the depth chart. The reason is that those are the guys that the head coach typically thinks are going to make a contribution right away.
That means we should be looking at Xzavier Henderson and Joshua Braun on offense and Gervon Dexter, Tre’Vez Johnson and Rashad Torrence II on defense. Unsurprisingly, these are the positions where Florida struggled most last season.
If Delance struggles, I suspect Reese will move out to right tackle and Braun will fill in at right guard. Henderson was a huge win in recruiting and can provide a real jolt if he can excel in four-wide sets.
Unlike most, I actually think Donovan Stiner is underrated, though not the most physically gifted player. But there’s no doubt that additional thunder from the position would be welcome and all reports are Torrence will be able to provide that. You’d hope that would come from Brad Stewart, but in what is becoming an annual tradition, he’s not on the depth chart for another opener.
And with Trey Dean moving back to safety, Johnson being able to step up at Star, especially considering what I discussed with McWilliams earlier, is a big deal.
With zero redshirt concerns for 2020, expect these guys to get a lot of playing time, especially if Florida gets up early in its first couple of games.
Game Time – Mississippi
And so we come to the game.
Ole Miss went 4-8 last season, but was better than that as it gave up almost the exact same number of points as it scored. Typically, that would equate to a 6-6 record and indicates that the Rebels encountered some bad luck. That’s absolutely true, as Mississippi went 0-5 in one-score games.
The Rebels scored 26.6 points per game last season. New head coach Lane Kiffin’s teams are almost always above 30 points per game. If the Mississippi defense can be just as effective and Kiffin can deliver 30 points per game, you’re looking at a 6-4 or 7-3 season for Ole Miss.
Of course, that defense is losing a ton of talent and I think the defensive improvement in 2019 was mostly a mirage. The 2018 squad gave up 36 points per game, but ranked 107th in yards per play. The 2019 defense improved to 76th in that category, but the 5.7 yards per play vs. FBS opponents matched Utah State (30.7 ppg allowed) and Fresno State (30.0 ppg allowed). That suggests the defense significantly overachieved.
Combine that with Kiffin implementing a new system during coronavirus, uncertainty at QB with John Rhys Plumlee and Matt Corral and a mass exodus from its defensive line and there’s no reason the Rebels should be able to hang with the Gators.
Florida is a 14.5-point favorite, on the road, with an 11am local start. Two touchdowns seems about right so I’m not sure I’d take the Gators against the spread unless it goes below 14.
But Florida wins this one pretty easily.