By Will Miles
Week 1
Well, the season is finally here!
In alternating seasons, we get to kick off the season with Michigan (2017) or Miami (2019), but typically, seasons start with tune-ups against inferior opponents. That’s what’s happening this year against FAU, but after a year of limited access to the Swamp (and for me, an inability to travel due to quarantine restrictions), this week really does signify the return to normal, at least for college football fans.
Every year I think this, but this year it’s really true. Don’t take these Saturdays for granted. They’re great times to connect with your family and friends, and they also go by really, really fast. It seems like just yesterday that I was impatiently waiting to graduate from Florida, and now I’m 17 years removed from graduation day sometimes wishing I could go back.
Time marches on, and nothing says that more than another fall being upon us, the leaves turning brown (or in most of your cases, the end of the oppressive heat) and the smells of tailgates in the air. The offseason is spent arguing about who should be the starting QB and whether recruiting is good enough, typically friendly fire between fans arguing about the intricacies of the program.
But now the games start and we can aim our ire at our rivals, right where it belongs every fall.
The Kirby Awards
Every year, coaches make boneheaded decisions that cost their teams late in games. Those are often obvious.
But there are usually decisions that lead up to those decisions that are the cause of a team winning or losing a game, and that’s what I’m hoping to look at in a new segment I’m writing called “The Kirby Awards”, named after perhaps the most polarizing coach in recent history when it comes to game management.
Kirby Smart is undoubtedly a great recruiter. But the gaffes that he’s had in big games against Alabama and the way in which the Bulldogs have lost some close games (Tennessee 2016, South Carolina 2019) have led many in Gator Nation to question whether that recruiting is good enough.
Add to that the recruiting struggles from Florida, and it sets up for a perfect dichotomy of one coach who recruits at an elite level but needs to show development and in-game coaching acumen. The other of a coach who recruits as a sub-elite level but has shown consistent development and in-game coaching acumen (timeouts against Alabama last season notwithstanding).
Perhaps no place other than college football is the coach lauded for success and railroaded for failure. But perhaps no place other than college football is the coach responsible for both either.
Scott Frost cost his team the game against Illinois this week because he refused to trust his QB when he needed to. Dan Mullen would have won a Kirby for the Alabama game.
Let’s hope he reverses course and it’s Saban winning this award come September 18.
Up-front
If you want to pinpoint where Florida broke down last year, it’s not that hard to do. It all came down to the ability to win up-front.
Yes, the offense was dynamic. And I actually think the offensive line was better than most people think. But the reality is that if you were to pick a weakness of the offense, it was clearly the running game and that falls on the big guys up-front.
On the defensive side of the ball, the story was much the same. While the secondary got lots of criticism (much of it deserved), one of the reasons those guys got torched was there was never pressure on the QB to cover up for a mistake or two. And we have definitely heard quotes from Florida’s linebackers singing the praises of their new DL teammates and how they’ll ensure that the LBs don’t get swallowed up by pulling linemen.
So if you’re looking for something “big picture” in this game, the one word answer you’re really looking for is “push”. Can the defensive line create push to make N’Kosi Perry uncomfortable in the pocket? And can the offensive line create push to give the running backs, Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson lanes to get a running start before they encounter that first defender?
Will Muschamp – for all of his foibles – was correct when he called the SEC a line of scrimmage league. He was just wrong in thinking that was all it was.
Emory gets his chance
Emory Jones was a huge get for Dan Mullen in the 2018 recruiting class, beating out Alabama for the guy who many thought would be in the NFL already after ascending to the job in 2019. Boy what a tangled web we’ve woven.
When Saturday comes, this will be Emory Jones’ team. He has had the opportunity to lead them in what amounts to a “normal” offseason. He should have had plenty of time in the scheme to be able to be more than just a game manager if he is capable of doing that. There aren’t any excuses if he can’t.
And that’s what’s so fascinating about 2021. I think I speak for a lot of Gators fans when I say I was surprised that Kyle Trask came off the bench against Kentucky when Feleipe Franks was injured. I think it was also a surprise that despite Trask’s early success that Jones didn’t get more time to prove what he could do during that campaign.
Obviously that was the right decision, but if it was that obvious of a decision, why wasn’t Trask starting in the first place? The reality is that Florida caught lightning in a bottle and Jones has stuck this thing out in a way many players don’t these days.
Here’s to hoping that his patience pays off.
Secondary and “DBU”
If you’re looking for a DBU on the field Saturday night in the Swamp, it’s possible that you won’t be talking about the Gators, but about the Owls.
FAU’s defense ranked 21st in yards per play in 2020 and was 13th against the pass. Compare that to Florida’s defense – who ranked 82nd and 85th in those two categories – and it’s the biggest advantage Willie Taggart is going to have on the field, at least on paper.
Of course, FAU didn’t have to play Texas A&M, Ole Miss or Alabama last season. These rankings have a lot less relevance from 2020 than they normally would because the seasons were so insular. But I’m not sure Florida would have done a lot to stop anybody last season.
Florida has a ton of turnover at the position. Gone are Marco Wilson, Donovan Stiner, Shawn Davis, Brandon Stewart and Jaydon Hill. In are Jason Marshall, Jadarrius Perkins and Elijah Blades. FAU has almost no turnover, with the return of super seniors Zyon Gilbert, Korel Smith, Diashun Moss and Ashton McNeil along with Teja Young and Jordan Helm.
I don’t think this game turns into a shootout, but if Florida can’t run the ball, this could be a lot closer than people think.
N’Kosi Perry
My memory of N’Kosi Perry was that he was a dual-threat QB in his time at Miami. But looking at his stats, I was really wrong about that. Granted, rushing yards in college are skewed somewhat by sacks, but dual-threat QBs almost always have averages over 4.0 yards per rush.
Instead, in his time at Miami, Perry rushed for an average of 2.0 yards per rush on 111 carries with the ‘Canes. Even in his best season running the ball (2018), he only averaged 2.8 yards per rush.
That matters because Perry wasn’t very good through the air at Miami either. He averaged 6.3 yards per attempt and a QB rating of 119.9 over his three seasons. Certainly he might be better in a different offense under Willie Taggart, but all indications are that he’s going to struggle when playing against better competition with less talented teammates.
Could Perry light up the Gators? It’s certainly possible. Anybody in the state of Florida probably remembers his 41-yard pass to Brevin Jordan to beat Florida State 28-27 back in 2018. What we forget about that is that Florida State team went 5-7 and that if you take away the throw to Jordan, Perry’s line was 13-31 for 163 yards.
I hope Perry does well against everyone else but Florida this season. He’s a local kid from Ocala and so I’m sure he’ll have some family at the game. But I think the stats say it may be a long evening in the Swamp.
Depth Chart
Florida released the depth chart on Monday, and there were some interesting things that showed up.
First, Avery Helm is the starting corner opposite Kaiir Elam. We’ve heard a lot about Jason Marshall, Elijah Blades and Jadarrius Perkins, but not a lot about Helm. It’s interesting to see him listed there.
Second, Mohamoud Diabate is listed behind Amari Burney at linebacker. This is a real upset if this is how things shake out, as Diabate showed to be one of the more gifted players on the Gators defense last season
Finally, I know fans are going to hate it, but Jean Delance is at right tackle. I’m telling you right now, I think he’s going to surprise some people this year. He is much more naturally inclined as a run blocker and Florida just didn’t run the ball much last year. When they did, it was behind Delance.
Willie vs. Dan?
We all figured in 2017 when Dan Mullen and Willie Taggart were hired that they would play in the 2021 season. The fact that Taggart is now in his second season at Florida Atlantic is just mind boggling to me.
I fully acknowledge that Taggart was awful in his almost two seasons. A 9-12 record isn’t what anyone was looking for in Tallahassee. But for a program that is more cash-strapped than Florida to part with $20 million in buyouts says something about the boosters and where they thought the program was headed.
I’m also not sure that Norvell is making things better. His 3-6 record last season is probably on-par with Taggart’s just because it was only against ACC competition, but 3-6 is what Bobby Bowden was putting up in his first or second year at the helm.
As for Mullen, he certainly has shown some warts as well, particularly in recruiting. But it shouldn’t be lost on fans that the big hires in the 2017 offseason were Dan Mullen, Willie Taggart, Chip Kelly and Scott Frost. Taggart is gone, Frost is on the hot seat, Kelly has an 11-21 record at UCLA and Mullen has led Florida to three straight New Years Six Bowls.
I want more out of recruiting. I want Mullen to lead Florida to championship glory. Mullen came in talking about the Gator Standard knowing full well he was making championship promises. But I also want to enjoy each and every college football season, and Mullen has certainly delivered on that promise so far.
Grantham’s last ride?
An interesting sub-plot to this one is that this is probably Todd Grantham’s last season in Gainesville.
Should the Gators defense improve, another program will look at 2020 as an outlier due to COVID and other issues and focus on the three “good” years that Grantham had at Florida and explore him for head coaching opportunities. Should the defense be mediocre or bad, Grantham likely will not be asked to come back.
It makes for an interesting dynamic. Oftentimes we see general managers of professional teams make poor decisions because they are trying to protect their jobs. They get overly aggressive trying to trade for players and giving up younger talent.
Normally I’d worry about that incentive structure for Grantham. I’d worry that in trying to keep his job, he’d either get way too conservative or way too aggressive. But the reality is that since there aren’t a lot of scenarios where he returns in 2022, he’s more likely to feel free to call plays the way he wants instead of worrying about what anybody thinks.
I think that’s a good thing for the Gators, because Grantham calling plays without a care in the world likely gives us the best version of Grantham.
The Pick
The 247Sports team talent composite came out this week, and Florida is ranked 7th, behind Georgia (1st), Alabama (2nd) and LSU (5th). Kentucky ranks 30th, Missouri ranks 45th, and Vanderbilt ranks 57th. FAU ranks 71st.
So what we have is a team that is less talented than Vanderbilt coming into the Swamp in a game where Florida’s defense should be completely jacked to show that last year was a fluke. You also have a QB in Perry with a career 119.9 QB rating, lower than Ken Seals of Vanderbilt had last season (127.6) as the Commodores went 0-9.
On the road – at Vanderbilt – Florida beat the Commodores 38-17 in a game that they were clearly sleepwalking in. My point is that 21 points should be the minimum expectation for a Florida win.
I still don’t quite know what we’re going to get from Emory Jones, and so there’s plenty of intrigue here, but that intrigue does not rely on the result.
Florida wins, 45-10.