By Will Miles
USF win
That was perhaps the most depressing win I’ve ever experienced as a Florida fan.
That’s not because I was all that disappointed with the 42-20 score (though the final USF score did blow the Florida cover I predicted). Instead, it was because I started to think that Florida had a shot against Alabama because they had a secret weapon at QB who could score at will whenever brought in the game.
And then that player grabbed his hamstring.
This is still the biggest game in the Swamp in a long time. Maybe you’d say it’s as big as 2018 when Joe Burrow came to town, but Florida was ranked 20th and had already lost to Kentucky. I think the best comparison is in 2015 when 3rd ranked Ole Miss came to town and got absolutely blasted by Florida in a 38-10 Gators win. Before that, I’d say it was 2012 when 10th ranked Florida defeated 4th ranked LSU 14-6 with a running game and not much else.
The point is that these games don’t come around all that often. This is why we watch the games against FAU or USF or Sanford. We watch because eventually we get around to games like this one against Alabama.
I hope we all stop to enjoy it.
Hamstring heard around the world
Anthony Richardson is a special player. The question for this week is can he remain a special player when he’s not at 100 percent after pulling up with what looks like a relatively minor hamstring strain.
But I think it’s worth taking a moment to appreciate what we’ve seen these last two weeks. Richardson has been responsible for nine explosive (20+ yard) plays in the Gators first two games. He’s done that on only 22 total touches (11 rush and 11 pass). Having an explosive result on 41 percent of your plays is just ridiculous.
I tweeted out after the game against USF the most incredible stat I’ve ever seen. Richardson threw 3 passes, had 4 rushes, and led the Gators in both passing and rushing yards. I mean….wow.
The noise for him to start against Alabama was going to be enormous right around the time he hit mid-field on his 80-yard run against USF. By the time he got to the end zone, we were all just hoping he was going to be okay enough to play against the Tide.
The opposing fans have exhaled a sigh of relief the minute Dan Mullen has brought Emory Jones back in after AR has had a successful drive. Mullen might not go down to Shands to give the doctors down there advice, but he should pay attention to the opposing fans.
They tell you all you need to know about who needs to be the starter.
Emory Jones’ struggles
I really feel for Emory Jones. After waiting for 3 years to be the starter, he has struggled a little bit in his first two starts. In particular, he’s thrown 4 interceptions, all of them pretty bad ones.
In a normal situation, he would be given a little bit of time to grow into the role. But this isn’t a normal situation. He is filling the shoes of a guy who nearly won the Heisman Trophy – and might have had his administration actually pushed for it before the vote. And it looks like there is someone who is truly special waiting in the wings right behind him.
I want Emory Jones to succeed. I truly do believe that he is going to have a moment this year where he is the hero either when AR is hurt or when AR struggles with some of the same things Jones has struggled with so far.
But the ceiling of the offense thus far has been 8-4 or 9-3 with Jones at the helm while fans are starting to think about being able to potentially sneak into the playoffs with Richardson. Mullen has talked a lot about the Gator Standard since coming to Gainesville. That standard is championships, and not just SEC East championships.
It’s sad for Emory Jones, who has been incredibly loyal to Mullen and the program. But at the end of the day, Richardson gives Florida the best chance to reach the Gator Standard.
Defensive Front
One sack and one QB pressure. That’s what Florida had against USF.
We spend a lot of time talking about the offense. With Richardson’s play, that makes sense. But the reason this team doesn’t have a championship ceiling really has nothing to do with the offense. That offense is averaging 600 yards per contest even with the QB controversy.
The reason this team has a limited ceiling is because of the defense, as least what I’ve seen thus far.
Florida brought in transfer defensive tackles Antonio Valentino, Da’Quan Newkirk and Tyrone Truesdell during the offseason. Gervon Dexter is in his sophomore season after showing flashes as a true freshman. Brenton Cox is a former 5-star recruit who played all of 2020 and Zachary Carter came back for another season to get the taste of last year’s defense out of his mouth.
So what does it say that the defensive line wasn’t able to harass the QB for USF in what was essentially a home game for Florida?
Yes, Florida rotated in a lot of guys. There were certainly guys that we saw against USF who won’t even sniff the field against Alabama. But after Jeremiah Moon sacked Cade Fortin on the opening drive, USF’s QBs were just able to sit back and deliver passes without any pressure.
That isn’t going to work out well against Alabama.
Defensive Backfield
There have been shots there in each of the first two games against the Gators defense.
Whether it has been Avery Helm, Jason Marshall or a running back isolated against a safety, both FAU and USF have been able to get one-on-one coverage and have had receivers open. Neither QB has been able to deliver the ball consistently (or in USF’s case, the receiver had the ball bounce off his hands early).
But Bryce Young is a different story altogether. When he had the opportunities to hit big plays against the Hurricanes, he was able to do it. When Alabama has the opportunity to hit those plays, they do it. That’s what makes them Alabama.
So if you’re looking for the key matchup in this weekend’s tilt, this is it. At some point, Florida’s corners are going to get on an island with one of Alabama’s wide receivers. There are then three possible outcomes. Florida’s corner wins. Alabama’s receiver wins. Or Florida commits pass interference. Two of the three are bad outcomes from Florida, but that’s where the game is going to be decided.
Talent level
The 247Sports roster rankings have Alabama ranked 1st overall this year while the Gators are ranked 7th. That doesn’t sound like that big of a difference, but it does amount to 8 more 5-star recruits and 10 more 4-star recruits. That probably amounts to 7 or 8 more players on the Alabama roster who are going to end up being drafted into the NFL.
That isn’t necessarily insurmountable, but it does point to the depth advantage that Alabama has when it incurs injuries vs. when Florida does. For example, if Jean Delance is limited, that’s a big problem for the Gators. It looks like Ventrell Miller will be out, so what does that mean at the linebacker position? And certainly, there’s the health of Anthony Richardson to consider.
Still, this isn’t a talent gap that means the Gators have zero chance. What it likely means is that it is a 60/40 or 65/35 advantage towards the Tide. Because the game is in the Swamp, that likely tilts things towards Florida a little bit more.
So would it be an upset if Florida is able to win the game? Absolutely. But would it be some shock heard around the SEC? Not really. Alabama has been beaten before. It can happen again.
Hopefully it happens in the Swamp this Saturday.
Is Alabama still Alabama?
Recruiting is a huge part of college football. But development matters to. The Tide lost Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith and Mac Jones. Whether Nick Saban can get the same kind of production from Bryce Young, John Metchie and Jojo Earle against big-time SEC teams is still an unknown.
History suggests he’ll be able to, but we would have thought the same thing about Urban Meyer – who was bring in top rated recruiting classes in 2009 – as Tim Tebow exited stage right. Little did we know we were heading into the Will Muschamp/Jim McElwain/Doug Nussmeier desert.
The point is that it is hard to keep finding elite QBs. Bryce Young has looked good in his first two starts, but he hasn’t been nearly as good as Mac Jones was last season. John Metchie is good, but is he really going to be as good as Waddle, Smith, Henry Ruggs and Jerry Jeudy?
I think we’re starting to see some cracks in that armor. My proprietary stat – Yards above Replacement (YAR) tries to measure a QBs contributions through both the pass and run games. Zero is average, negative is bad, 1.0 is Jake Fromm and 2.0 is a Heisman-level player.
Mac Jones had a YAR of 3.05 in 2020. Tua was at 3.28 and 3.34 in 2018 and 2019. Jalen Hurts was at 0.55 and 1.40 in 2016 and 2017. That also happens to be the last time that the Tide seemed mortal when they weren’t playing Joe Burrow.
Bryce Young has an elite QB Rating through two games (180.1), but that is propped up by his 7 TD against 0 INT. Obviously, that is an important stat, but yards per attempt correlate much better once you get into SEC play. In that category, Young is only averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. Combine that with limiting rushing (4 rush, 0 yards) and his YAR is at 1.12.
That’s really good QB play. But it is not Mac Jones or Tua level. Alabama doesn’t need that level of play to be really good. But they need that level of play to be unbeatable.
I don’t think Bryce Young gives that to them.
Bryce Young and true road games
When Jalen Hurts took over in 2016, he played a limited role in a neutral site win over Southern Cal, then he looked really good against Western Kentucky.
Then he played a true road game at Ole Miss and really struggled throwing the ball, with a QB rating of 104.1. The Tide won the game, and Hurts added 146 yards rushing, and so his struggles through the air were easy to ignore. But that trend continued through his freshman year, with pedestrian performances on the road against Tennessee (QB Rating = 121.3) and LSU (89.4).
Tagovailoa and Mac Jones did not see that kind of drop off. So if you believe my case above that Bryce Young is more Hurts than he is Alabama’s last two QBs, we should expect some drop off in performance on the road, and not an insignificant amount.
Do I think Young is going to throw 4 picks? No. But I think it’s reasonable to assume that Alabama is going to have to rely on its running game more than it ever has had to over the past 3 or 4 years. And that’s a problem, as the Tide averaged just 3.9 yards per rush against Miami and 4.6 yards per rush against Mercer. Compare that to the Gators (8.5 yards per rush), and the Tide need a big game from Young.
The good news for Alabama is he is going to be attacking the weak part of the Gators defense. But the good news for Florida is that stopping Jalen Hurts was a lot easier than stopping Mac Jones. And I think that’s what Bryce Young brings to the table, at least thus far.
Nick Saban and dynasties
What Nick Saban has built at Alabama is really, really impressive.
I mentioned the Florida run under Urban Meyer. We all felt like that would never end after the win over Oklahoma in 2008 and that Florida would be dominant on the national stage forever. We haven’t won an SEC title since.
And look over to Lincoln, Nebraska where they were sure that Scott Frost was going to return the Huskers to the glory days of Tommy Frazier and…..well….Scott Frost. Instead, you’ve got a team that is losing consistently to the Illinois of the world and a fan base that is wrestling with whether to give up on its native son.
My point is that while you may not like Alabama, you should take a minute to understand that you’re watching something significant. These kinds of dynasties usually end quickly, and just like Meyer in 2008, we don’t often see it coming.
Whether it’s the Golden State Warriors when Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson went down against the Raptors with injuries or the USC teams under Pete Carroll, these types of programs and dominance is usually fleeting.
I’m not saying you should like it. But I am saying that you’re seeing something special when you head to the Swamp to see Florida take on this Alabama squad. And it means that much more if Florida can get the W.
What a win means for Florida
Dan Mullen has never beaten Alabama, either at Mississippi State or at Florida. He has a 2-5 record against LSU, Georgia and the Tide.
Those are tough games. There are reasons/excuses we can make for each and every loss. But the reality is that as Bill Parcells once said, “you are what your record say you are.” At some point, to get to the Gator Standard that Mullen preaches, he’s going to have to beat Alabama.
Spurrier did it, going 6-3 versus the Tide. Urban Meyer was able to do it once, leading to an SEC title and National Championship in 2008. But the loss to Saban in the SEC Championship Game in 2009 did such a number on his health that he thought about stepping down and then did after the 2010 season.
So what does a win mean for Florida?
It means that the Gators are nationally relevant again. It means that they are a real contender for the playoff. And it means that we can start talking about Dan Mullen as one of the elite coaches in college football, not just a good developer of talent.
IF Mullen wants to go to the NFL, nothing will prove his point like taking on a more talented team and coming out victorious. If Mullen wants the Florida fan base to embrace him like it embraced Spurrier, nothing will do that like taking down the number 1 team in the country in the Swamp.
And if Mullen wants to win championships, nothing will supercharge that effort like a win over the Tide.
That’s what’s on the line Saturday night. See you there!