By Will Miles
Schedule Break-Down
We’re about to get some college football!
Barring something last minute, the SEC, ACC and Big 12 are all going to attempt to play, and we can all start talking about actual games rather than the offseason stories of incompetent NCAA leadership, the Big 10 putting pressure on other conferences to back out, and the political implications of playing vs. non-playing, both at the college but also the national level.
Instead, we get to start talking about what happens when Florida plays a completely revamped LSU unit. We get to talk about whether Kentucky is in position for a step back or whether the Wildcats are now going to be a consistent threat on the SEC East stage. Or we get to talk about whether Tennessee can get things together by December enough to give the Gators a game.
It’s been a long ride to get here, but we’re about to have college football in September. When everything shut down in mid-March, it seemed impossible that this is where we’d be. But hopefully the normalcy that college football brings to all of our lives helps brings us together in a way that the other sports just have not been able to do.
Biggest “Trap” Game
This one is pretty easy for me. It’s Tennessee.
There’s a ton we don’t know about December. There may be fans in the stands by the time this game comes around, making this a raucous road game for the Gators. Tennessee may have found their QB, with Jarrett Guarantano finally putting things together, Brian Maurer establishing himself as the starter, or 4-star freshman Harrison Bailey stepping into the role.
Regardless, the experience advantage that Florida would have had early in the year will be gone by the 10th game.
That doesn’t mean Florida won’t win this one and win it big. But the talent gap between these two teams is relatively small. And while I think Kyle Trask is going to be better than any of the options I listed above at Tennessee, it’s not as though Florida hasn’t had close calls against the Volunteers in recent years.
Yes, Mullen’s teams have handled the Vols easily, outscoring the Vols by 26 and 31 points the past two seasons. But we’re not that far removed from needing a Feleipe Franks miracle or an Antonio Callaway miracle (or a Treon Harris miracle?) for the Gators to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
The issue at Tennessee for the past two decades has been at QB. Guarantano, Quenten Dormady, Justin Worley, Tyler Bray, Jonathan Crompton, and Erik Ainge are some of the QBs who have spent considerable time under center recently for the Vols. Only Joshua Dobbs was really any good, and not coincidently, Dobbs was the QB the last time the Vols got the Gators.
To believe that Tennessee is going to find a QB this season is probably a bit of a stretch. But they have nine games before this one to do it, which is way more prep time than they usually have for the Gators.
Cocktail Party Rules
One thing that doesn’t change is that the most important game of the season remains the same: the neutral site tilt against hated Georgia.
Because the SEC decided not to stick it to Florida, the Gators and the Bulldogs have roughly equivalent schedules to what they had before. But if Georgia wins games they are favored in and Florida does the same, the SEC East will come down to the Cocktail Party (note: even if you consider Alabama the favorite, that loss would still be offset by a win over Florida).
But beyond the results in 2020 – which may or may not be impacted significantly because of COVID-19 – the Georgia game is critical to the long-term prospects of Dan Mullen in the SEC East.
At some point, Mullen is going to have to approach the level of talent that Smart is amassing in Gainesville. That isn’t going to happen without a win over Georgia at some point. Three losses in a row, under three different offensive coordinators and two different QBs for the Bulldogs, would be a real problem.
You can sell that you’re building your program for a while. But eventually, you have to actually win the game on the field. That hasn’t happened the past two seasons and recruits have continued to flock to Athens. Maybe one win doesn’t change that completely.
But especially for in-state prospects, it would go a long way.
Ethan White at Center
One thing being talked about during camp is that true Sophomore Ethan White appears to be getting some time at center.
That was always a spot that was a bit of a question mark with Nick Buchanan graduating, so it’s good to see White being utilized in that role. It’s also great to see the commitment that White has made be rewarded, not only to the Florida program but to making sure that he’s in great shape for the seaon.
White’s progress at center though does raise some interesting questions about the offensive line. I always assumed that Stewart Reese was going to move back to tackle (he played RT under Mullen), but moving White to center opens up a spot at right guard. It may suggest that players like Joshua Braun or Michael Tarquin have really taken a step up.
Or it may be that Florida’s offensive line is going to continue to struggle and remains a work-in-progress throughout the season.
This is the reason why you would pick Georgia over the Gators. The Bulldogs have elite talent up-front, which regularly correlates to good run defenses. Florida is going to have to get some push to establish a running game, otherwise Kyle Trask is going to see his windows get smaller and smaller.
Value of a Running Game
I rewatched last year’s Florida/Georgia game recently and it struck me that Florida was able to move the ball against Georgia, but just wasn’t able to push things over the edge when they got into Bulldog territory.
Gator fans probably remember the fourth-and-1 pass attempt to Kyle Pitts, but they’ve probably forgotten the third-and-1 stuff of Dameon Pierce for a 2-yard loss two drives later. The Gators only ran for 21 yards on 19 carries in the game. The point is that the throw to Pitts wasn’t a poor decision. It was a decision made because the alternative wasn’t much better.
If that can change, Florida is going to have an elite offense in 2020.
The reason I say that is Florida has ranked 32nd and 22nd in yards per play against FBS opponents in 2018 and 2019, respectively. But the Gators ranked 19th in yards per rush in 2018 and 80th in yards per rush in 2019. Conversely, Florida ranked 71st in yards per pass in 2018 and 23rd in yards per pass in 2019. The result is that Florida has been a good-but-not-great offensive team, averaging somewhere between 5.9-6.2 yards per play.
However, if Florida is able to combine its 2018 rushing efficiency with its 2019 passing efficiency (holding the number of rush and pass attempts constant), the Gators would increase its yards per play average to 6.96. In 2019, Clemson had the fourth best offense in the country with a 7.0 yards per play average.
This isn’t an unreasonable increase. All it would take is for Kyle Trask to replicate his 2019 season, without getting any better, with a marked improvement in the offensive line. More likely is Trask improves some and the running game improves a little bit as well.
Regardless, Florida isn’t too far away from recreating the Urban Meyer/Dan Mullen offenses that can go up and down the field.
Gators #8 in AP Poll
The AP Poll came out this week, and the Gators ranked 8th. In reality, Florida ranks 6th because the Big 10 and Pac 12 are still included in the poll and Penn State and Ohio State won’t be in front of Florida by the end of the year.
But I think it’s worth taking a step back to look at where the Florida program currently sits. The Gators have finished in the top-10 of the AP Poll two years in a row. They’re now a pre-season top-10 team according to the experts, with some picking Florida to win the SEC East.
Compare that to the 2017 season when Jim McElwain – coming off of two straight SEC Championship Game appearances – had Florida ranked 17th in the AP Poll coming into the season opener against Michigan. Also in 2013, the Gators were ranked 10th in the AP Poll under Will Muschamp coming off of a 11-2 campaign in 2012 with Jeff Driskel returning at QB.
The point is that the pollsters were not nearly as high on Florida back in 2013 or 2017 as they are in year 3 of the Dan Mullen era.
Part of that is because this is a better team that fits together better. But most of it is that they trust Dan Mullen to get the most out of his team even if there are holes.
They’re Back (Carter Edition)
A group of four players who were not at camp the first week have all decided to come back and play in 2020. One of the most outspoken players when it comes to the coronavirus and players’ rights has been defensive lineman Zachary Carter.
Carter is an important edition for Florida not just because of his production (4.5 sacks in 2019), but because he has the size to play both inside and outside. That gives Florida versatility on the defensive line, being able to shift him inside and get better pass rush without giving up a ton on run defense. It also gives them the ability to shift him outside and set the edge to ensure they are stout against the run.
Carter wasn’t a star his sophomore season, but he was a solid contributor who flashed high-level ability at times. In particular, the fumble that he forced against South Carolina led to Florida going up 31-20 and ostensibly put that game away.
I get as excited about high-level recruits as anyone and I’m certainly excited to see what Gervon Dexter, Mohamoud Diabate and Khris Bogle can do. But whether Carter can take another significant step forward and be consistently good while occasionally great is likely going to be key to the Gators defense.
They’re Back (Grimes Edition)
Carter is an important addition, but the most important announcement of a return came from receiver Trevon Grimes.
A lot has been said about the four senior receivers who are leaving, and Florida will certainly miss them. But lost in that discussion is that Grimes had more catches than Josh Hammond and Tyrie Cleveland and only had five less than Freddie Swain. This is a player who has been consistently productive for two straight years.
The next step for Grimes is to become more explosive. He caught 26 passes for a 14.0 yards per catch average and 33 passes for a 14.9 yards per catch in 2018 and 2019. Compare that to LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase, who average 21.2 yards per reception.
Now, Chase is a special case and a special player, but Grimes has the same type of ability. That means breaking a tackle and taking a 10-yard reception to the house. That means getting enough separation from the DB that Trask can underthrow him a little bit and it still ends up being a big play. That means being able to beat a double-team and having Trask trust him enough to just throw it up even if it’s the wrong read.
Grimes could be that kind of player. And with all the departures at the position, he’s going to get an opportunity.
They’re Back (Toney Edition)
Anybody who’s read my stuff for any length of time knows that I’ve been a huge Kadarius Toney fan.
But for the second straight year, Toney has disappointed, only catching 10 passes and running the ball 12 times in 2019. Much of this is due to injury, but that’s part of the equation for a player who is listed at only 5’11” and 194 pounds.
The frustrating part is that when Toney is in the game, the Gators move the ball. But he doesn’t always get on the field. Sometimes that’s because of injury but sometimes he hasn’t been on the field even when he’s been healthy. That is going to have to change.
The flash Toney illustrated last season against Miami and Florida State is tantalizing, but it only matters if it happens once or twice a game rather than twice a season. That doesn’t mean that he needs to break a 5-yard pass into an 80-yard TD every game. But it means that he has to be a threat to do so, opening things up for other players.
The breathtaking plays Toney produces are fun. But if he wants to take the next step, the question isn’t going to be the big plays, but consistently being on the field.
They’re Back (Copeland Edition)
The third receiver who is now back in camp might be the most important.
Jacob Copeland was a high 4-star recruit (69th nationally ranked) out of Pensacola in 2018. Last season, he caught 21 passes as a redshirt Freshman. The fact that he was able to fight his way into a lineup including Grimes, Toney and the four seniors is pretty impressive and a testament to his talent level.
If Toney remains inconsistent, someone else is going to have to step up for the Gators to keep defenders from shading towards Grimes and tight end Kyle Pitts. Copeland will be the first player to get that chance.
Beyond that, Grimes is going to be gone after the 2020 season. So, likely, is Toney. That means that Copeland is going to be the number one receiver in the 2021 season, especially if he can start to assert himself this season.
So having him back isn’t just about 2020. It’s also about continuing to build playmaking ability on the outside for 2021 as well.