By Will Miles
Access, the spring game, and fall camp
I don’t want to be one of those media types who complains about access to fall camp. To be honest, I get why Dan Mullen would want to keep people away as he installs an offense that looks much different than last year. But the thing I don’t get is why the administration thinks the reduction is access is a good idea.
The die-hards are always going to be there, come hell or high water. But the casual fans and kids who have not yet fallen completely in love with the game are the people who end up affected when access is restricted.
That may not be completely true with fall camp, but it certainly is with the spring game. And without the constant drum beat of something college football related to share with my kids, they’re as disconnected from the program as they’ve been in a long time as this season starts.
I remember coming home from school in 1990 and Roger Clemens had just been thrown out of an ALCS game against Oakland in a game that was televised in the afternoon from Oakland. Those big playoff day games have completely ended, and I don’t think it’s a coincidence that kids over the last generation have turned to other sports.
Sometimes it seems like a sport’s hold on our collective attention is indelible. But as college athletics changes to something very different than it was when we were in school, I think schools are going to have to be more careful about building loyalty into kids.
Canceling a spring game or restricting access to fall camp seem like minor things. But those things add up over time.
Fall camp lies
But there is limited access to fall camp, which means there is limited access to assess what is actually going on.
I remember back in 2017 when we all convinced ourselves that Feleipe Franks was ready to go. I remember all of those fall camps where Dre Massey was ready to take the next step forward. Even last season, I remember all of the talk about how Florida was going to possibly replace all of its weapons that it lost after the 2019 season (see? The lies aren’t always bad).
The point is that I’m not ready to take anything that we hear out of fall camp at face value. Anthony Richardson played well? Was it against the one or the twos? Tre’vez Johnson looks good at star? Well, has he had to come up, fill a gap and make a touchdown saving tackle yet?
The reality is that we just aren’t going to know much about this team until September 4, and likely not even until September 18. A lot of that is by design. Dan Mullen clearly doesn’t want us (or his opponents) to know a whole lot about this team heading into the season.
So is all of his talk about AR15 to make sure his opponents have to prepare, or is it because Richardson is really pushing Emory Jones hard? I have no idea. You don’t either. Neither do the reporters.
We’ll all find out in a couple of weeks.
Bowman and the big run
Perhaps nothing exemplifies this more than the video coming out of the second scrimmage showing Demarkcus Bowman taking one to the house.
Demarckus Bowman has to have a role in the Gators offense this season. This is him in tonight’s scrimmage @Bowman_22 @GatorsFB pic.twitter.com/WiDtxDzmVP
— PolkWay (@polk_way) August 23, 2021
Bowman is undoubtedly gifted and fast. But that is some of the worst tackling that you’ll ever see against a running back. Likely that is by design, as you don’t want to injure your own running back trying to take him down low. But to pretend like this ends up as anything more than an 8 to 10-yard run in the SEC is probably pushing our luck.
Add to that the names on the jerseys that flash by as Bowman starts his run. Cox, Moon, Diabate and Carter are all there in plain view. That’s three starters and a senior backup who will play huge roles on the defense this year.
I’m as excited about the potential of Demarkcus Bowman as anyone, but I’m not sure this video does a whole lot to either dampen or increase that enthusiasm.
Offensive line progress
There’s been a lot of unhappiness about the offensive line last season, particularly the right side, and specifically Jean Delance.
I defended Delance earlier this offseason, pointing out that he was a much better run blocker than pass blocker and that should help as the offense changes over to a more run-based scheme. Still, with Stone Forsythe and Brett Heggie leaving, the Gators are losing a bunch of experience up-front and are having to move linemen around. The question I have is whether John Hevesy can develop these guys fast enough to facilitate the need to supercharge the run game.
So what does progress look like? Would you accept an offensive line that ranks 30th nationally in advanced run and pass stats? Well, that’s actually last year’s offensive line.
Football Outsiders has advanced run and pass stats for offensive lines and had the Gators ranked at an average of 34th last season when running the ball based on its metrics and 32nd last season when passing the ball. I think offensive line play is hard to measure, but this hardly suggests that the offensive line was the weakness of the team.
Indeed, while there were glaring mistakes at times, you don’t get a QB with a Heisman Trophy-level season without an offensive line that can protect at least somewhat. That’s doubly true considering that Kyle Trask wasn’t exactly Michael Vick back there in the pocket.
So I get that it could look frustrating at times. But the reality is that the Gators offensive line wasn’t bad last year.
Hevesy track record
I get frustration with Hevesy on the recruiting trail. I feel that one too. But I just don’t get the criticism when it comes to developing his players.
Based on those same Football Outsiders stats, the Gators offensive lines were putrid in 2015, 2016 and 2017 under Jim McElwain. The line’s average rankings in the run game from 2015-2017 were 67th, 75th, and 44th. That’s bad enough, but the line’s average rankings in the pass game were 121st, 51st and 113th.
Hevesy came in and a line with almost identical personnel to 2017 went from 113th in the pass game to 34th and from 44th in the run game to 22nd in 2018. His line took a step back in 2019 (95th run, 59th pass), but was much better in 2020 (34th run, 32nd pass).
I’d love to have 5-star offensive tackles mauling people outside as much as anyone, but based on the talent of the guys Hevesy is bringing in, he’s getting a whole lot out of them. The offensive line seemed like the weakness on offense last year because there weren’t a whole lot of weaknesses.
The line is going to have to be better this season, but I’m not sure why we shouldn’t think John Hevesy is going to be able to get that done.
Most important position on defense – Part 1
I’ve spoken a bunch about this, but Gervon Dexter is going to be the most important player on the Gators defense this year, and so perhaps that means he’s the most important player on the team as well.
In each of Florida’s seasons under Todd Grantham, the Gators have been able to get to the QB when you look at the sack stats at the end of the season. But anyone who’s watched the Gators has experienced frustration as the team just hasn’t been able to get to the QB when Florida has played decent talent.
Kellen Mond was average last season. Florida made him look like a star. Jake Fromm was awful (for him) in 2019. He sat back in the pocket and picked the Gators defense apart.
Even when Florida was getting big seasons from Jachai Polite or Jonathan Greenard, it just seemed like the pass rush faltered at the wrong time. I think a big part of that is just not having any consistent push up-front from the defensive tackles.
Not only does a big push up-front prevent double-teams on the outside. But it also gets a hand in the QBs face and makes him uneasy. If you take the time to review tape of any QB, when you prevent him from stepping into his throw, he’s much more apt to throw a pick.
So that brings me back to Dexter. He showed flashes last season, but was not a consistent difference maker up-front. Florida has brought in two transfers at defensive tackle that should allow him to rest and not have to shoulder the entire burden up-front. But Dexter showed in high school the potential to be a special player.
If that shows up in 2021, the Gators defense is going to be much improved.
Most important position on defense – Part 2
The second most important position on defense is one I haven’t really mentioned much this offseason: STAR.
The STAR is a critical position in modern defenses because the goal of the offense is to get mismatches. If you can get a pass catching tight end or running back on a linebacker, it’s an easy completion and potentially a big play. If the defense brings in a corner or safety to counter your offensive personnel, then you run it right at that defensive back.
That’s the role of the STAR. He is someone who – if successful – prevents this from being a strategy. He’s a player who can step in and provide linebacker-like support in the run game, but is big enough and fast enough to cover tight ends and running backs (and sometimes even wide receivers) in the passing game.
I remember back in 2017 when Florida played Tennessee and Jeremiah Moon and either Shawn Davis or Brad Stewart were running on and off the field on what seemed like every play. Moon was a liability in coverage but could help at linebacker in the run game while Stewart and Davis could help in pass coverage but were not great in run support.
The result was that Tennessee was able to move the ball against Florida and it took a Feleipe Franks bomb to win the game for Florida. A big part of that was having someone who could play both roles.
We thought that might be Amari Burney in 2019 or 2020, but he just hasn’t been able to put it all together. Marco Wilson got moved inside to STAR in 2019 and that didn’t go all that great. It sounds like Tre’Vez Johnson is going to get an opportunity in 2021.
We’ll see if he can do it, because aside from Dexter, he’s playing the most important position on the defense.
Recruiting/Transfer Proposal
It looks like the NCAA is going to approve some new rules associated with transfers. The problem is that schools are only allowed to have 25 initial counters every season. That means if a bunch of players that you recruited transfer out, there’s no way to replace them. It also means that if you bring in transfers, you’re using a counter that can’t be used on a high school recruit.
The new rule would as drafted would essentially give programs extra counters when players transfer out of a program. This would have some significant advantages, the main one being that players wouldn’t get caught in the transfer portal without a home just because programs didn’t have enough spots for them.
Initially it seems like this would favor programs like Alabama, as they would be able to pick and choose transfers without any burden being placed on their recruiting machines. But as I think about this more, I think it actually helps programs like Florida more. The reason is because Alabama was essentially already maxing out its talent at the high school level anyway. Adding a transfer or two may help, but it’s a marginal improvement over the recruits already in the system.
However, for a program like Florida that isn’t maximizing its high school recruiting, it is a significant improvement if Dan Mullen is able to bring in a large number of transfers, particularly if he is doing so in response to players transferring out of the program.
This kind of thing is just ripe for abuse, as it incentivizes coaches to make a player uncomfortable enough that he will transfer to open up a spot. However, it seems to make sense from the standpoint that the transferring player would then have an easier time finding a home.
Regardless, college football is changing and changing fast.
Walter Nolen
Five-star defensive tackle Walter Nolen announced his top-3 on Tuesday night, and that top-3 did not include the Gators.
This wasn’t a huge surprise, as Nolan had been trending away from Florida for some time now. But it was a reminder that Florida is still just not where it needs to be on the recruiting trail and also that recruits having a good time on official visits really doesn’t mean a whole lot. At some point, you have to get them to commit as opposed to just enjoying their free trip to Gainesville.
I never want to judge a recruiting class by one player, so I’m not going to do that here. Nolen would have looked great in orange and blue, but I wish him the best as he goes 5-7 with the Vols. But I do think this is indicative of the Dan Mullen strategy and why it has not been up to the Urban Meyer level thus far.
When you have 5-star recruits, you always want to entertain them. But Florida is recruiting Nolen, who hails from Tennessee. They are recruiting 5-star Evan Stewart, who is from Frisco, Texas. They’re recruiting Gentry Williams and Chris McClellan, who both hail from Oklahoma. You have to wonder – and I’ve written about this before when talking about the Chris Steele saga – would they be better served focusing those resources at home?
You have to go down to the 24th highest recruit in the state of Florida before you find a Gators commit (Terrance Gibbs). The Gators only have 3 of the top-50 Florida recruits committed. Clemson has 3 of the top-13.
I’m all for going after guys like Nolen. But at some point, the issue isn’t that Nolen is likely going to decide to stay in Tennessee. The issue is that guys like Jaheim Singletary (Jacksonville, Riverside) end up at Ohio State.
2022 Class Update
With all that said, Florida jumped to number 16 nationally in 247Sports recruiting rankings with the commitments of linebacker E.J. Lightsey and offensive tackle David Conner. Both of those guys are 3-star recruits, but certainly help the Gators overall class score. That score was also helped by the upgrades of commits Shemar James and Nick Evers.
This was always going to happen though. Florida ranked so low (mid-20s) for much of this cycle because the Gators had a relatively small numbers of commits. As they’ve added a few commits, the overall score has gone up. But the issue is that the average player rankings, now at 89.70, has not budged at all.
That average player ranking has the Gators potentially able to move up only 3 spots, as only Michigan, Stanford and Texas have lower average player rankings but more total commits. Missouri – currently ranked 18th – actually has a higher average player rating (89.90) at this point than Florida.
The point is that Gator fans need to prepare themselves for the fact that this class is unlikely to be a top-10 class. It looks right now like the class is going to finish probably either 13th or 14th nationally and 5th in the SEC way behind Alabama, Georgia, LSU and Texas A&M.
Whether that’s good enough is up to you to decide, but it’s where this class is heading right now.