By Will Miles
Conference Only 2020
The Big 10 jumped the gun (at least if you listen to the rumbles coming from SEC officials) and declared they would only be playing conference games in 2020.
While the coronavirus pandemic was cited as the reason for this decision, there are clearly money concerns as well that are driving decision-makers at this point. Without fans in the stands, it just isn’t worth the payment to a cupcake to come get obliterated. Combine that with the fact that those cupcake games don’t drive TV ratings and it becomes clear why this decision was made.
The Pac-12 then followed suit and it is expected that the ACC will modify its schedule as well. Whether that prevents games like the Florida/FSU or Clemson/South Carolina annual rivals at the end of the year is unclear, but what is clear is that the 2020 season will be unlike any other.
But with the changes comes an opportunity to change things, perhaps even for the better. The ACC is mulling a schedule that would incorporate Notre Dame and have teams play five opponents on the road and at home. Imagine a scenario where LSU played Florida at home and on the road in one season.
That’s something I might like to see with or without a pandemic.
SEC Decision Timeline
Greg Sankey came out and said Monday that the SEC will be waiting to make any final determinations on its schedule. The problem is that with the number of coronavirus cases in the south – particularly in Florida – increasing significantly, there just isn’t any way to say with any certainty what is going to happen.
This is why there was so much consternation with the Big 10. Florida – and to a lesser extent, California and Texas – were the states that should be driving decision making. Instead, the rubes in Ohio decided they were going to jump on an opportunity to save a buck by claiming coronavirus was the reason for going strictly non-conference.
That being said, since the Big 10 and Pac-12 have already made their decisions, there really isn’t a lot for the SEC to do other than to make a “go/no-go” decision. They have the same financial implications of hosting a cupcake game without fans as their Big 10 counterparts. Having an extended SEC season would certainly make sense, especially considering the money that comes from SEC Network.
But a decision didn’t have to be made in July. The Power-5 conferences – and the SEC in particular – drive what happens in college athletics. And you can bet that the SEC is going to find a way to milk every dollar out of this situation now that other conferences have cut them out of the decision-making matrix.
Decision-Making Metrics
With the Ivy League and Patriot League shutting down, there is going to be pressure on the SEC to start clearly defining what they’re waiting for and how they’re going to come to a decision.
I mean, what is reasonable? Up here in Pennsylvania, new daily cases are typically somewhere around 500. Deaths were at 5 on Monday (July 13). Yet still, they are talking about doing virtual schooling for my kids, or at least having a split schedule to reduce interaction among children.
Meanwhile in Florida, the Sunshine State just counted over 12,000 new cases and 35 deaths on the same day. If the Pennsylvania school metrics are going to be used, there’s no way a season will ever get underway in 2020.
I don’t envy the people in charge of making such decisions. The SEC received nearly $700 million from television payouts, so there is going to be immense pressure to play the games, whether it is the right thing to do or not. And since the NCAA doesn’t really have any authority in the matter, lawyers must be salivating at the idea that one conference will shut down while another will play.
Sankey’s “wait and see” approach, the fact that he didn’t define any significant targets only means that While I understand regardless of his decision, he’s going to be criticized.
SEC Conference Only
I mentioned earlier how the ACC is floating the idea of bringing in Notre Dame and then dividing things up into essentially 5-team divisions with a 10-game home-and-home schedule. How much fun would that be in the SEC?
Invite UCF (because, hey, they seem to think they can hang with the big boys) or USF (because they aren’t UCF) to participate as the 15th team, and then look at these pods.
- Pod 1: Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
- Pod 2: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Mississippi, Kentucky
- Pod 3: Texas A&M, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, UCF
Have the fifth game be a traditional rival (so Florida gets LSU, Tennessee gets Alabama, etc.) and you have a 10-game season TV (and fans) would love.
Yes, you could just play the normal conference season. But this would be different. It would be fun. And it would showcase the best conference in College Football in a way that ensures the next TV contract is even bigger.
Who wins in that scenario
So let’s say my hypothetical – and unlikely – scenario comes to pass. Who benefits?
This one is easy. Georgia.
The Bulldogs are going to benefit by getting non-conference games to go away anyway, as they drop the opener against Virginia and the finale against Georgia Tech. But if the SEC schedule gets rearranged in any way, that favors the Bulldogs as well.
That’s because Georgia was scheduled to play both Auburn and Alabama cross-conference in 2020, while Florida had Ole Miss and LSU. Any sort of rearrangement is going to help Georgia and hurt Florida.
Additionally, Georgia was scheduled to play Alabama on the road early in the year while Florida has LSU at home.
Most Covid-19 related issues (no spring practice, students not on campus) have been in Florida’s advantage this offseason. The schedule rearrangement is not one of them.
Spring Football?
So why don’t we just play in the spring if the fall has to be rearranged?
Well, there are a bunch of problems with this. The first is that I’m not sure programs are going to be able to field a team. Take Florida, for instance. If I’m Trevon Grimes, there’s no way I’m playing in the spring and then have to turn around and play a full NFL season the next year starting in September. The same is going to be true for every marquee player who will be draft eligible: Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Derek Stingley, Ja’Marr Chase, Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, etc.
The second reason is the $700 million I mentioned above. There is no guarantee that the pandemic is going to be any better in the spring. It’s unlikely there will be a vaccine and it’s a huge risk to delay the season expecting things will be better. If it doesn’t, you’re back in the same situation as right now, except without your signature players.
And of course, the biggest issue with spring football is the turnaround to the next fall. These are amateur football players who need an entire offseason to recover. Football is a collision sport. The health and safety of the players requires that they have time to recover and heal. Every time a player blows out an ACL next fall, the question will be whether it was because of two seasons coming so quickly. And the school isn’t just going to have to answer to that player or his parents.
It’s going to have to answer to his lawyer.
Missed Opportunity (Recruiting)
Florida’s recruiting is struggling. The 2021 recruiting class is currently ranked 9th by 247Sports, but that’s because the Gators have 20 commits. If we look at average player rankings, the Gators are poised to drop another five spots.
This was Dan Mullen’s season to make a statement. With Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow and Jake Fromm all leaving, this was the year to make a move, win the East and perhaps even the entire SEC.
That opportunity may be wrestled away by Covid. And yes, let’s say that the teams mostly come back in 2021 in-tact. Jamie Newman and/or J.T. Daniels will have had more than an entire year in the Georgia system and Brock Vandagriff will be on-campus. Bryce Young will likely be starting at Alabama. And LSU will have had a chance to re-load after having so many players drafted.
The window will have closed and Florida will have to find a special QB of its own. Whether that is Kyle Trask, Emory Jones, Anthony Richardson or Carlos Del Rio, it will have to be one of them. Because the only path to Florida being able to overcome the talent deficit currently between itself and its main rivals is a transcendent QB.
Restart Guineau Pigs
One thing the SEC waiting to make a decision will do is give them time to observe other sports leagues.
The NBA obviously is an interesting case, as they are in the Orlando bubble, and if they can get through their season, that should give some hope that limited schedules can keep players healthy. Of course, some of those players are already trying to puncture the bubble to get Postmates, so perhaps the bubble is a poor idea.
But there’s also MLB and the NHL starting soon as well. Those leagues are going to run things much more like the SEC will need to run its football operation. That means that this is an opportunity for the conference – and its programs – to learn what works and what doesn’t.
Whether you were a baseball or hockey fan before, you should be now. Because if they can pull off their seasons with minimal disruption, it bodes well for college football this fall.
NC State Home-and-Home
In some lighter news, Florida announced a home-and-home series with NC State in 2026 and 2032. This continues the trend of Florida scheduling more difficult non-conference opponents, with Utah, Cal, Arizona State, Colorado and Texas joining FSU as unique opponents for the Gators in the coming years.
The new, fresh opponents are going to be fun. But it’s going to be hard for fans on the east coast to get out to Utah, Cal or Arizona State. Even Colorado and Texas are real road trips.
But Raleigh is a pretty easy one. Not only is it located in the South, but it’s a shorter drive than going to see a road game against Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Missouri or even Tennessee. Not to mention that Raleigh is pretty easy to fly into as well.
NC State doesn’t have the football history of some other opponents, but as far as extending the Gators brand into a region where Florida might want to recruit, this gets the job done.
Now I can only hope Scott Stricklin moves things a little bit northwest so I can root for my alma mater (Florida) over my other alma mater (Virginia Tech).
J.T. Daniels Eligible
Former 5-star QB J.T. Daniels was given a waiver to be immediately eligible for Georgia this week.
This isn’t a surprise, at least not to me. Daniels missed almost all of last season with an injury. The fact that he didn’t contribute at all to USC and essentially sat out 2019 made it pretty likely he would get eligibility right away.
Daniels was a 5-star recruit for a reason. He reclassified to enter college early after his junior season, but he completed 68 percent of his throws in high school, including over 70 percent both his sophomore and junior seasons.
But he did struggle his freshman year at USC. He only completed 59.5 percent of his throws and put up a QB rating of 128.6, or well below average. He also was a statue behind the line of scrimmage, rushing for -149 yards on 45 carries.
Interestingly, Daniels rushed for 561 yards on 63 carries his junior year in high school so using his legs was part of his game. I suspect many of his struggles at USC may have been that the scheme there took that element of the game away from him. The fact that he’s coming off of a serious knee injury may take it away from him in 2020.
The big thing I’m looking for is how this is all handled by Kirby Smart. Smart made the wrong decision starting Jake Fromm instead of Justin Fields in 2018. Fromm nearly led Georgia to a second straight SEC Championship, but his limitations also are a reason that Georgia hasn’t won the playoff yet. Fields doesn’t have those limitations, but his youth scared Smart from using him for anything other than misguided fake punts.
Now Smart has Jamie Newman and Daniels. Daniels seems to fit his mold of a pocket passer with a high-level pedigree. But Newman probably fits better the kinds of changes that Georgia needs to make to its offense to make it more consistent.
I’m not going to pretend it isn’t a tough choice. But it’s a choice that will either lead to a championship for Smart, or will make his seat get mighty hot in a year or two if Georgia loses more games like the debacle to South Carolina last year.