By Will Miles
Softball season comes to an end
The Gator softball season came to end with a whimper after getting swept in the Super Regional to Georgia.
I indicated in these very musings last week that Georgia would put up much more of a fight. Georgia went 1-2 against Florida, but the one win was the game started by Mary Wilson Avant, who surrendered 2 runs in 7 IP. My thinking was that Avant would start games 1 and 3, and hope to be able to win the game in the middle that she wasn’t starting.
But Georgia had different plans. Instead, they just kept throwing Avant out there. That worked great for the Bulldogs in the first game, as Avant and Natalie Lugo went into the 7th inning locked in a 1-0 dual, the only run coming on a 3rd inning home run by Georgia’s Jaiden Fields.
Georgia added 3 more in the 7th to ice the game away, which gave the Bulldogs the win they desperately needed with Avant on the mound (7 IP, 0 R).
In game 2, Florida ace Elizabeth Hightower was just off a little bit. The Bulldogs jumped on her early, scoring a run in each of the first three innings. And with Avant on the mound, the Bulldogs were able to salt the series away (7 IP, 0 R).
So where do we go from here? The Gators had a great season until the end. But there is something to be said for their inability to score against the best pitchers out there. It happened against Avant here, and it happened earlier in the year against Alabama when they came up against Montana Fouts.
Perhaps that’s just something that happens sometimes. Aces are called that for a reason. Perhaps that’s part of where the team needs to improve.
Regardless, it was a fun ride. Watching these women over the course of the spring has given me a new appreciation for their abilities and what Tim Walton has built.
Baseball hosts the Gainesville regional
Florida went 3-1 in the SEC tournament and basically achieved what we thought: a home regional, but not a national seed (which means the Super Regional won’t be in Gainesville).
The regional is a double-elimination tournament and this one is going to feature South Florida, South Alabama and Miami. This brings Florida back to where it began the season, opening up a campaign with National Championship aspirations by going 1-2 against the Hurricanes.
The Gators enter the regional ranked 13th by D1 Baseball Rankings while none of the other regional participants are ranked. The Hurricanes come into the regional having lost its only two games in the ACC Tournament to Duke and Florida State. The Seminoles are ranked 23rd, and that’s four losses against them for Miami with a combined score in the four games of 40-5….ouch.
The expectation is that Florida should make it through and into the Super Regional. After all, that’s why they’re hosting the regional. But this is way more vulnerable than any of us expected this team to be at the start of the year.
The good news is that Florida is 28-7 at home while only 7-12 on the road. Full crowds are expected for the first time this year. And the Gators did get some really good pitching performances in the SEC Tournament.
At the beginning of the year, I would have said that fair expectations for this team would be a trip to the College World Series. Once there, teams are so good that the team that gets hot may win, even if it’s not the best.
That is still a possibility heading into the postseason, but it’s less likely than we would have thought back in February.
SEC baseball tournament is a mess
Tennessee has a good baseball team. But it seems really weird to me that after the Volunteers beat the Gators on Saturday that both teams stood at 3-1 in the tournament, yet Tennessee went to the championship game and Florida went home.
That’s because the SEC Tournament is some weird smorgasbord of single elimination to start, which then morphs into double elimination until the semi-finals, which then morphs back into a single elimination tournament.
Here’s an idea: invite less teams to the tournament and actually have a true double-elimination tournament. I know everybody wants a participation trophy these days, but 7 of the 14 SEC teams had losing conference records. Did Florida beating Kentucky really prove the Gators to be a superior team? Or would it have been better if they’d gotten a second shot at the Vols?
I get the allure of a tournament being that the underdog can win. But baseball is such a random sport and so predicated on that day’s starting pitcher that single-elimination can’t hope to identify the best team on a regular basis. Give me the top-8 teams and make them fight in a true double-elimination tournament. That’d be more entertaining and certainly more clear.
Because it’s hard to get invested as a fan when you don’t understand the rules.
O’Sullivan and LSU
Apparently Kevin O’Sullivan is a candidate for the head coaching job at LSU.
At least, those were the initial reports after LSU coach Paul Mainieri announced his retirement. The Tigers do have an impressive baseball history, with 5 national championships and 18 College World Series appearances.
But O’Sullivan has built quite a history in Gainesville, winning a championship in 2017 along with 7 CWS appearances in 12 years. Florida only has 12 CWS appearances in its history, meaning that a big portion of the Gators baseball tradition is owed to O’Sullivan.
That would never be true at LSU. Skip Bertman will always cast a shadow on his successors. Perhaps if this opening was following Smoke Laval, the coach who replaced Bertman and whose 45 and 46-win seasons weren’t enough for fans, I’d think a little bit differently.
But Mainieri has averaged almost 53 wins per year since taking over with a national championship. Those would be the expectations for O’Sullivan, with no ability to slip-up at all because of the track records of Bertman and Mainieri.
I’m not sure why you’d want that if you’re O’Sullivan. Perhaps you listen if the pro ranks come calling. Perhaps you listen to other big-time programs if Florida gets cheap and doesn’t pony up for a huge extension. But the reality is this.
With the opening of the new stadium in Gainesville, Florida is poised to be a big-boy on the national baseball scene for a long time. That can be O’Sullivan’s legacy.
Or he can be the third-best coach in LSU history.
Dan Mullen extension
News came out today that Dan Mullen has been signed to a three-year extension through the 2026 season, with an increase in pay to $7.6 million per year.
This makes sense on a bunch of levels. Having that four-year window is important. If I’m a recruit, seeing Mullen signed until 2026 gives me some confidence that he will be at Florida long-term. It’s also important for Mullen, who is now making more than all but 11 NFL head coaches. With the leaks about Mullen’s NFL interest coming out this year, this extension makes it financially beneficial for him to stay in Gainesville, as he likely wouldn’t be in the top-third of head coach’s compensation-wise should he make the jump.
This makes it a little bit harder financially if Florida wishes to let him go, but not impossible. It also rewards a guy who has delivered the best 3-season stretch in Gators football since Urban Meyer was roaming the sidelines.
The reality is that just prior to the LSU-game in 2020, this would have looked like a steal. It’s only because of that game, the close Alabama loss and the Oklahoma scrimmage that anyone is even batting an eye at this.
All I know is that Doug Nussmeier isn’t calling plays anymore and that makes the games way more fun. And it also means that Florida can’t use money as an excuse should a change be needed at the defensive coordinator position after this season.
Mike White extension
News also came out today that Mike White has been signed to a 2-year extension through the 2026-2027 season. Again, this has some recruiting ramifications for White, who has been under fire from a fan base that is highly divided about whether making the NCAA Tournament every year is good enough for this program.
But while Mullen got a huge raise, White didn’t get that kind of compensation. This is more like the Jim Harbaugh extension from Michigan in January where the Wolverines gave Harbaugh more years but not any more money. The message there was “we need to tell recruits you’ll be here, but we’ll buy you out if things don’t get better.”
The same message should be heard for those who want the program to move on from White. While basketball isn’t the same priority at Florida that football is, this contract isn’t onerous enough that the Gators couldn’t make a change if they wanted to. However, it gives White what he needs to sell the program to recruits who otherwise would see a lack of an extension as a vote of no confidence.
If the Gators just keep making the tournament and bowing out early, you move on well before 2026. But if White is able to piece together more wins from the transfer market and continued good recruiting, then Florida has a young coach on a cost-effective contract who hopefully is grateful at the faith showed by the administration.
I have my doubts White will get the job done. But if you’re going to keep him on for the 2021-2022 season, this extension makes a lot of sense.
Vegas Odds for 2021
Odds came out this week and Florida’s over/under has been set at 8 wins and FanDuel has their odds at +1700 to win the SEC (bet $100 to win $1700), fourth in the conference behind Alabama (-150), Georgia (+180) and Texas A&M (+1200).
Those two numbers seem a bit at odds with each other. In 2019, Florida and Alabama tied for the third best record in the SEC at 11-2 (6-2 SEC). Auburn was 5th at 9-4. The fifth best team in 2018 was Texas A&M (9-4) and LSU, Mississippi State and South Carolina all tied for 4th at 9-4 in 2017.
What this suggests is that if Florida is really the fourth best team in the SEC, it will surely win more than 8 games.
But what it also suggests is that Florida is considered a high variance team. With the offense shifting under Emory Jones and bettors unsure of what he will be able to do, there are likely folks who think the Gators could have a really successful year (i.e. win the SEC) but also that the floor is a lot lower than it is for Alabama or Georgia.
That means we’re going to know what we have in week 3. Alabama is a test for that floor but also for that ceiling. Walk out of that one with a 31-point loss, and the 8-win total might start looking shaky. But walk out of that one with a win or even a respectable loss and there’s no way Florida doesn’t go over.
Typically for Florida fans, the season doesn’t really start until that Tennessee game in early September. That has been a little bit more muted for the better part of two decades now as the Vols have struggled. But that feeling is going to be back in full-force in 2021 when the Tide come to town.
Run game and Jean Delance
I wrote an article this week defending the play of right tackle Jean Delance and even suggesting he might be the strength of the Gators offensive line in 2021.
The point wasn’t that Delance didn’t have things to work on. He clearly does. The point was that the offense that Florida was running last year wasn’t tailored to his strengths because the strengths of Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney needed to be tailored to.
That changes as Emory Jones runs what we think will be a much more run-centric offense. Although Jones stepping in is a big reason for expecting a more run-centric approach, the other reason is that guys like Lorenzo Lingard and Demarkcus Bowman should get some reps at running back as well. The hope is that those guys turn 5-yard, solid runs into explosive, 30-yard gains.
Looking at the stats and film suggests that Delance is a pretty good run blocker. He isn’t getting drafted after last season’s performance, but you can see 1) plenty of ability at the point of attack on run plays and 2) improvement as the season went along.
Nobody wants to hear this. Delance was a convenient whipping post when things broke down last year. But the right tackle is also a lot like the referee: you only notice how he’s doing his job when he screws up.
The Gators have a lot to do on the offensive line. Stone Forsythe and Brett Heggie are gone. Ethan White needs to stay healthy. Richard Gouraige needs to develop into more than just a solid guard. And the Gators need to get good play from the right side of their line.
I’m not sure that will happen. But I do think that the seeds are there for that side to be really good. How good will be up to Delance and right guard Stewart Reese and how much they improve over the summer.
All SEC players for 2021?
Gatorsports has five potential All-SEC players listed on Florida’s roster for 2021: Kaiir Elam, Brenton Cox, Ventrell Miller, Zachary Carter and Jacob Copeland.
Let’s say that they’re right and the Gators get that kind of play out of those five. Well, according to research my colleague Bill Sikes did late last year, that still won’t be enough to win the SEC.
Bill’s work set a championship template for All-SEC play. He suggested that history says that the ideal number of All-SEC selections is 8.6 with the historic minimum at 6. That means that the Gators are going to have to get at least one more All-SEC performer to really have a chance at an elite performer.
The good news? If Jacob Copeland is All-SEC, that probably means Emory Jones has a chance as well. Jones, Bowman and Lingard are going to run the ball more, so does that enable an offensive lineman to gain the honor. And what about Gervon Dexter? Dexter showed flashes last year as a true freshman that suggest he could be a really disruptive force in the middle.
But this just reinforces what I said in the previous section about high variance. If Florida gets All-SEC performances from Elam, Cox and Carter, I don’t think anyone would be too surprised. If they get them from Copeland and Miller, well, that’s probably a really good year.
But they’re still going to need more than that to really compete for the SEC. Which means that Dexter, Jason Marshall, Mohamoud Diabate, Ty’Ron Hopper, Khris Bogle, or one of the running backs is going to need a big year as well.
Is it possible? Absolutely. But it’s certainly not guaranteed.
Gervon Dexter giving back
Speaking of Dexter, over the weekend I saw this really cool story about him and his girlfriend passing out food to those who needed it over the Memorial Day weekend.
Oftentimes, we in the press focus on the negative, whether that’s play or off-field behavior. Offseason stories often detail fights at parties, charges associated with some sort of gun or sexual assault and of course, the opening day scratch due to “conduct detrimental to the team.”
So I think it’s only fair that we take the time to highlight the players who are doing good things. Dexter didn’t have to do this. Neither did his girlfriend. The fact that they did says something about who they are and what they bring to the Gainesville community beyond just football ability.
I’m not naïve enough to think that anyone would really care about this story were it not for Gervon Dexter being a 5-star recruit. But I’m also not jaded enough to ignore players when they do the right things either.
So thanks, Gervon, for helping make Gainesville a better place, both on and off the field.