By Will Miles
Restart Guineau Pigs
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote in this space that college football would do well to watch MLB, the NBA and the NHL as those organizations re-start in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.
Well, if SEC leadership has been watching MLB, they just saw baseball get its first test on Monday. The Miami Marlins experienced an outbreak of Covid-19, but reports are that they played on Sunday despite knowing that the virus was present in their clubhouse.
While it is unclear at this time exactly what the Marlins knew and when, I suspect that MLB’s protocols are going to be found to be insufficient in that they did not prevent Sunday’s game from happening, not only allowing the disease to spread in its clubhouse, but also putting the Phillies’ next series with the Yankees in jeopardy.
I also suspect that both sides of this debate will use this to confirm their priors. Those who believed the games should never be played will only see this as a reinforcing event. Those who believed that this was inevitable but the virus is relatively benign to younger players will see this as proof that it really isn’t a big deal after all once these players are back in uniform.
Regardless of where you stand on that argument (more on that in a minute), the reality is that the SEC is getting a dry run at how to handle – or not handle – an outbreak during its season. In a situation that is completely new to everyone, that’s a really valuable thing.
Stricklin Covid-19
It was announced recently that Florida AD Scott Stricklin was diagnosed with Covid-19.
Obviously, the first thing we hope for is that Stricklin’s family is unaffected, that he has a quick recovery and no lasting effects. But it’s also a reminder that the virus doesn’t discriminate and that infection isn’t solely a behavior-based consequence. Indeed, Stricklin said that he felt he had taken proper precautions. It just turns out this thing is really, really contagious.
There has been lots of talk about players coming back to campus and going out to bars and getting the virus. But I think it’s probably much more likely that they get it in the dorms. All it takes is for one person to bring it in and all of a sudden, it’s spreading like wildfire.
That’s actually going to be a really interesting side effect of the comparison of MLB to the NBA. The Marlins are going to miss a couple of games. So too might the Phillies. But the other teams are going to go on as usual. If a team in the NBA experiences the same thing – because they are in a bubble – the whole operation may end up shutting down.
Again, I don’t know what the best approach is. The NBA could keep it completely out and have a successful run through the playoffs. MLB could keep getting sidetracked as individual teams have to cancel games.
But college football is really stuck in the middle. The dorm situation makes it like the bubble in the NBA. But they’re going to be traveling to games and player movement won’t be restricted to hotel rooms or Disney property.
There will be an outbreak. It’ll be fascinating to see what the protocols in place are to handle it.
Ethical Issues (paying players)
But Mr. Stricklin gets paid (very well) to be an athletic director. I get paid to go to work and potentially be exposed to the virus. The players at the University of Florida – and everywhere else in NCAA football – do not.
That’s a significant difference when you consider how I feel about college versus the pros. I can actually see the argument from the side of people who think college football should press forward. The players will get better health care than they likely otherwise would, will have specific isolation protocols to follow and will be educated on how to identify if they have it and avoid spread.
However – and this is where I really start to feel squeamish – just as I’ve never liked the term “voluntary” workout because the voluntary was certainly in quotes, we all know that any player who opts-out of the season for anything less than a significant pre-existing condition is going to lose his place in the pecking order with his coach.
When in graduate school, we heard horror stories (to be clear, not at Virginia Tech) of professors who advised international students and pulled funding in their last year. Those students had two choices. Work for free to get their Ph.D. or stop working and lose their immigration status.
I’m not suggesting that college football is at that level of evil and/or unethical. But what I am suggesting is that when someone like Patriots linebacker Dont’a Hightower decides to opt out of the 2020 NFL season, he has the $28 million he made from 2017-2019 to fall back on. If Bill Belichick decides to move on, he should be okay.
You can’t say the same thing about a college football player, and so the ethical questions become a lot murkier with Covid-19 as a result.
Urban and the Ring of Honor
I participated in a News4Jax/Gators Breakdown rewatch of the 2008 Gators football championship this past Saturday night.
It was great to watch the game again and remember where I was and what we all thought about the significance of that title and the direction of the program. It’s hard to remember now, but after that title, Meyer pulled in nine 5-star recruits in the 2009 and 2010 recruiting classes. It felt like Florida would be on top forever.
But of course, 2008 was the pinnacle for Meyer under Florida. From there, the Florida program has had its share of ups and downs since he left. The way Meyer left was not ideal, and the speed with which he re-emerged at Ohio State certainly rubbed some Gators fans the wrong way. Add to that the ignominious way he left Ohio State and the connection of Zach Smith to the Florida program, and there are those who are hesitant to welcome him back into the program’s good graces.
Again, I understand.
But with all of his baggage, I think Meyer deserves to be in the Gator Ring of Honor. He fits the criteria (a national championship, 5 years away from the program, and in good standing with the university). I don’t think we should have football coaches in charge of reporting and doling out punishments for domestic violence. And the way he left has softened somewhat as the program has struggled for a decade.
Put it this way. If Dan Mullen won two of the next four national championships and then flamed out and went to Michigan after spending a year doing TV, would we take that right now?
My point isn’t that Meyer is perfect (he isn’t). My point is that if you want to brag about the titles, you have to acknowledge Meyer as the man who spearheaded them.
The next Harvin
Speaking of the Ring of Honor, it’s really criminal that Percy Harvin isn’t eligible based on the criteria.
While Tim Tebow was the man who got all the attention (and deservedly so), rewatching that Oklahoma game and Harvin’s role in the title, was breathtaking. To then go read that he wasn’t actually playing with a high ankle sprain, but a hairline fracture in his ankle made it even more impressive. The Gators don’t win that game without Harvin.
And rewind back to 2006 as well. While Harvin’s statistics in the BCS Championship Game against Ohio State were much more muted (9 catches for 60 yards, 5 rush for 22 yards), he was still a true freshman. And in the SEC Championship Game that year, he was named MVP after two key touchdowns and 167 total yards from scrimmage.
It’s not a coincidence that Florida’s offense all-of-a-sudden looked far less explosive in 2009. Both Harvin and Louis Murphy were gone, and while Riley Cooper was an adequate replacement for Murphy, Florida has been looking for “the next Harvin” ever since.
If Meyer is in the Ring, and Tebow is in the Ring, then Harvin needs to be in it as well. The Gators don’t win either title in 2006 or 2008 without him, and he was a transcendent talent at his position.
Those are the guys you put in your Ring of Honor.
Non-offensive scores – Wunderlich
Gator Country colleague David Wunderlich wrote an article looking at scoring non-offensive touchdowns as a key to Florida taking the next step into the elite. I wholeheartedly agree.
But I don’t think that starts with Kaiir Elam or Marco Wilson. I think it starts up-front, specifically at defensive tackle.
The image that comes to mind when we think of explosive turnovers is something like Jachai Polite coming off the edge and hitting Joe Burrow from the backside, forcing him to fumble in 2018. Those hits are huge game-changers, but they don’t often end up in turnovers that go the other way for scores.
Turnovers going the other way more often occur on plays where a QB can’t step into a throw and ends up floating a ball to the outside. Those types of throws come from pressure up the middle. Florida has a history of those types of guys: Caleb Brantley, Jonathan Bullard, Sharrif Floyd, Dominique Easley, Ray McDonald and Marcus Thomas.
Perhaps Tedarrell Slaton is going to be that next guy. Maybe it’s Gervon Dexter. Certainly, the medical exemption for Elijah Conliffe doesn’t help the depth up-front.
I know there’s a lot of talk of who is going to replace Jabari Zuniga and Jonathan Greenard. But I think you can scheme getting a defensive end free. But nothing can replace a defensive tackle who drives the guard back into the QB. If Florida is going to be a top-10 defense, they’re going to have to find that push inside.
Toney taking the next step
Kadarius Toney averaged 10.4 yards per catch and 11.4 yards per rush in 2018. He averaged 19.4 yards per reception and 4.9 yards per rush in 2019. If Toney is going to take the next step, he has to bring both of those skills to bear in 2020.
Clearly injuries hurt Toney’s production in 2019. And every Gator player had decreased rushing averages due to issues on the offensive line.
But his touches per game went down from 3.8 to 3.1 from 2018 to 2019. The Gators just went away from him at times. As much as that was understandable based on the bevy of receivers Florida had in 2019, that just won’t be excusable in 2020.
Toney had a 66-yard touchdown reception against Miami, a 48-yard reception against Missouri and a 47-yard reception against Florida State. He only caught 10 balls all season, which means that 30% of his catches were explosive plays.
We’ve all seen it. The offense moves better when Toney is on the field and Mullen is getting him the ball. I expect to see Mullen start scheming to put him in a position to do just that.
Marcus Burke commitment
4-star wide receiver Marcus Burke committed to Florida on July 20th. Burke continues the trend of Dan Mullen bringing in tall receivers, as he stands 6’3”. It also is a really positive thing to see Mullen pulling in players from the Jacksonville area, a location that the staff absolutely has to own.
The thing that intrigues me about Burke is this description at 247Sports.
“Makes relatively average QBs look good as he doesn’t drop many passes with his daunting catch radius. No verified speed times, but seems to have a second gear which allows him to get behind defensive backs.”
That’s the profile of a guy who’s going to get a lot of deep passes thrown his way. A guy at 6’3” with a second gear is a really dangerous weapon. Even if his second gear isn’t that of a true burner, just being able to go up and get the ball without a perfect throw will be a huge upgrade in Gainesville.
For all the talk about the wide receivers recently, I wouldn’t describe any of them in that role. Van Jefferson won with route running. Freddie Swain was deadly on slants. I don’t recall Josh Hammond, Tyrie Cleveland or Toney going up to snatch a poor throw away from a defensive back. I do recall Trevon Grimes doing it against Georgia on one play last year, but it certainly wasn’t consistent.
Burke is the 222nd ranked player nationally, indicating he has some work to do to develop and get to the next level. But the skills he’s already bringing are ones that certainly fit needs that this team is going to have.
Recruiting status
After early optimism for 2021, Florida’s recruiting class has fallen to 11th in the overall 247Sports rankings.
The Gators will likely fall further, as Texas, Notre Dame, Oklahoma and Georgia are right behind them, with significantly higher ranked players but less total commits. As their commit lists fill out, they’re going to zoom right past Florida in the rankings.
You can’t say the same thing for Florida, as the Gators already have 22 commits, which limits the movement they’re going to be able to get. They might be able to pass Miami and Michigan with a big finish, but that still puts the class at 13th.
My colleague Bill Sikes wrote recently about the Palmetto High School recruits (Leonard Taylor, Jason Marshall, Corey Collier, Savion Collins, and recent Miami commit Brashard Smith) and what their commitments would mean for Florida. But even if Mullen hits on every one of those recruits, I’m not sure he finishes any higher than 12th.
That’s a real kick in the gut for fans who have believed that winning was going to bring the elite recruiting classes. That just hasn’t materialized, at least not yet.
If Florida wants to consistently play for championships, that’s going to have to change.