By Will Miles
The real inequality of college football NIL
David Wunderlich wrote a great article this week for Gator Country talking about information asymmetry when it comes to NIL. The point David was making was that unlike the NFL, we have very little information about how much players make and there are incentives to either enhance or downplay those numbers depending on the situation.
But the biggest piece of information asymmetry has to do with the size of each program’s war chest. We have a pretty good idea of those numbers for the Gator Collective and the Gator Guard – or at least an idea of the magnitude – but do we have the same information for Alabama or Texas A&M?
I’d argue that the only information we have is that Texas A&M’s supply is larger than Alabama’s because of all of the squealing from Lord Saban over the past couple of weeks and all of the recruits going the Aggie’s way. This isn’t to say that A&M is doing anything wrong, just that it seems clear that they have some advantages compared to Alabama right now.
Will that level out?
https://twitter.com/jbuddavis/status/1520087946489208838?s=21
Gator stat guru Bud Davis broke this down in the following tweet, plotting athletic profit against booster donations. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Texas A&M absolutely dominates his chart (followed by Georgia) while Alabama is middle of the pack. Saban no longer has an advantage. In fact, if Davis’ chart is to be believed, the Tide now have a significant disadvantage.
Whether you like A&M or whether you want to see Saban’s run come to an end likely impacts how you feel about that particular situation. But it does seem to suggest that the real inequality in college football NIL is upon us, and it may mean a sustained run of Texas A&M success.
Where the Gators stand
Florida doesn’t perform poorly in Davis’ chart, but they don’t have an out-and-out advantage either. Considering Georgia and A&M far outpace the Gators also suggests that there is going to be some work to do for both Napier and Co., but also for Scott Stricklin.
What this suggests is that if Napier has a player that both he and Kirby Smart covets, Smart is going to be able to win more often than not. The depressing part of that is that isn’t much different than the last two eras at Florida, but it also suggests there are ways to fix the problem.
The first way is to cut expenses in other areas of the athletic program. There’s no reason that A&M or Georgia should be more profitable than Florida, but the reality is that when you shell out real money for your gymnastics, basketball, baseball, track and tennis programs, those programs don’t honor that investment with an equivalent return.
But the way to take advantage without having to make athletic sacrifices is to build and maintain booster giving to the level shown for Georgia and A&M. That’s where Stricklin comes in. He’s in charge of raising funds for the athletic department, and he’s shown to be pretty good at it thus far. If you’re wondering why the blowback for some of the women’s sports coaching hires hasn’t been more significant, I think you can probably point to that.
The reality though is that these numbers show Florida as a team that should finish 3rd in the SEC in recruiting. Over the past few years, that has meant a team that also finishes 3rd overall in the country. But regardless of dollars, I don’t expect Alabama’s recruiting to fall off that much, meaning the Gators might end up 4th. Over the past four recruiting cycles, that would have meant finishes of 5th (2019), 6th (2020), 8th (2021) and 12th (2022).
The first two might be deemed acceptable for Napier. The second two will not.
Rashada Delays Commitment
This is important to note when thinking about the recruitment of players like Jayden Rashada.
We’ve been conditioned to fear Alabama on the recruiting trail, but it may be time to fear A&M even more. That’s concerning for Rashada – who delayed his planned June 18 commitment – considering he is being recruited by A&M as well.
I’m fond of saying – and truly believe – that you don’t rate a recruiting class based off of one commit. But guys like Rashada are key to building elite recruiting classes. You don’t need Rashada specifically, but you need guys like Rashada, and a bunch of them, to succeed.
All of that to say that his main offer list contains Ole Miss, LSU and California, schools that Florida should be able to beat on the trail. But A&M is there too, and if Jimbo wants him, that might be tough to overcome.
Harris commits to Georgia
I’ve long maintained that September is when we need to evaluate recruiting and that remains my opinion. But with the commitment of Phenix City, AL 5-star cornerback A.J. Harris to Georgia may end up being one that hurts.
Harris’ official visit to Florida is scheduled for this weekend, so perhaps the staff now has an opportunity to convince him of the error of his ways in committing to Georgia. But if not, that does narrow the cornerback board somewhat.
The good news is that 5-star corners Cormani McClain and Tony Mitchell are still on the board. But with Corey Raymond as the new DB coach, we hoped Florida would get 2 of 3 of McClain, Mitchell and Harris. If Harris is truly out of the fold, then that means Napier and Co. need to hit on both of the remaining 5-star recruits at the position.
Maybe we end up with all of this angst for no reason. And the board is still open at corner, so Harris can be replaced with another recruit. But you never want to lose to your rival, and Harris going to Georgia means Florida lost another one on the trail to the Bulldogs.
Hall to Michigan State
Between Harris and IMG Academy linebacker Jordan Hall, Hall’s commitment to Michigan State probably should sting a little bit more.
Hall is a solid recruit (198th national rank) but he’s at a position of need at linebacker (more on that in a minute). More than that, if Florida wants a player and gets beat out for them by Michigan State, then we need to reevaluate what we’re doing.
Again, you don’t evaluate recruiting based on one guy. And Hall isn’t a can’t-miss no-doubt prospect. But elite recruiting classes aren’t filled with just can’t-miss guys. They have to be supplemented with skilled players at positions of need. Hall fits that profile and unless Napier gets him to flip, he’s not heading to a rival but to a relatively second-tier Big Ten school.
Main needs for Florida
At this point, I think it’s worth taking a look at where Florida will be after this season given where we are in this recruiting class. That way, we can decide where it’s okay to settle and where Napier should go full tilt to bring in elite talent.
The first place I’d look would be linebacker. Ventrell Miller and Amari Burney will have used up all of their eligibility. David Reese hasn’t really contributed and likely will be gone as well. That’s the likely outcome for Diwun Black, though as someone who transferred after COVID from a Juco, I’m not sure how his eligibility works. If Derek Wingo has a good year, he might go pro as well, which means you’re left with Chief Borders, Scooby Williams and Shemar James as the only linebackers on the roster.
You can say something similar at the offensive guard position, where O’Cyrus Torrence and Ethan White are seniors. If those two leave, you’re left with Richie Leonard, Yousef Mugharbil, Jalen Farmer, Christian Williams, Riley Simonds and Will Harrod left at the position. Leonard has played a little bit, but that’s a group of unproven players at a position critical to success in Napier’s scheme.
That’s why it’s not a huge surprise to see that two of the players already in the Gators class are Bryce Lovett (OT, 557th national rank) and Knijeah Harris (IOL, 386th national rank). Those are players who are going to be needed in the next year or two.
But there aren’t currently any linebackers in the fold. If you’re looking somewhere for multiple players to be brought in without much concern about their national ranking, linebacker would be the place I’d focus.
Missouri Homecoming
Eli Drinkwitz may be annoying, but the announcement of Missouri as the homecoming game this year really came with a yawn this year.
Sure, it will be nice to have a lesser opponent for homecoming with a high percentage shot of winning. And absolutely, the Gators should be salty after losing to Missouri last season cost Dan Mullen his job. But the reality is that most of us don’t really consider these Tigers a real member of the SEC. They’ve won the East a couple of times when Georgia and Florida were down, but they’ve yet to beat either of those teams when they’re clicking on even some of their cylinders.
The reality is that the SEC East is a two-horse race long-term. Missouri doesn’t change that, which means that while we’ll talk about homecoming and potentially get excited about it somewhat, it just won’t have the buzz of a big game.
The good news is that Missouri has to replace a bunch of guys from last year’s roster. It’s also good news that Florida should be somewhat motivated. Further, the game is at home and the Gators can avoid the 11am starts that sometimes happen in Columbia.
But don’t expect me to care too much about this one. The expectation is that Napier is going to win this one, homecoming or not.
The Essay is in
Anthony Richardson submitted his essay to the judge about his speeding ticket that happened earlier this season. With that, the entire escapade is over.
Should Richardson have made better decisions? Sure. But the way this has been covered has been excessive given what actually happened. The good news is that this is now behind Richardson and the Gators and will have zero impact on the season.
That means that Richardson is now free to focus on the things that he does best, which means preparing for the 2022 season. That means being in not just great physical condition, but also being in the right place mentally such that he can get rid of the ball and avoid injury should a defensive linemen come free. That means knowing exactly where to go with the ball to improve his TD:INT ratio from 6:5 to something like 25:5. That means preparing to be the player who some are projecting to be a top-10 player in next year’s NFL Draft.
You know, the things us sportswriters are supposed to care about.
When you’re a Notre Dame fan
I don’t usually hate-watch anybody but Georgia. But after Tennessee decided to put on Gators helmets after beating the Florida baseball team earlier this year and flaunt their wins on social media (which just proved that deep down, the Vols all wanted to be Gators), the Vols had earned enough disdain to do the impossible: turn me into a Notre Dame fan.
So oh, how awesome it was to see the Irish defeat Tennessee 7-3 in the rubber match of the Super Regional and knock out the #1 ranked Vols.
Blade Tidwell had a 3.00 ERA for the season, but gave up 5 runs in 3 IP in the first game. Then Chase Burns (and his 2.91 ERA) gave up 4 runs in 6.2 IP in the third game. Tennessee also made 2 errors in each game, the types of mistakes that have haunted the Gators this year, not the Vols.
The lesson – as always – is that baseball is unpredictable. Tennessee was the best team in the SEC all year long, and now they have to go home and watch teams they likely are better than (Ole Miss, Arkansas, Auburn and Texas A&M) play for the championship.
But perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised. After all, nobody has ever seen a duck pull a truck.
Best Gators, by position
I wrote last week about Tim Tebow, Errict Rhett and Brad Culpepper being up for the College Football Hall of Fame and it got me thinking about who the best players are at a given position for the Gators. Over the next few weeks I’m going to think about that and lay out my rankings. I’m sure this is biased towards my era – and I’m sure I’m going to miss some deserving folks as well, so feel free to let me know what I’ve missed and why I’m an idiot.
Best Gator QB
This clearly comes down to three players: Steve Spurrier, Danny Wuerffel and Tim Tebow. With apologies to the Rex Grossman’s of the world, you don’t get in this conversation unless there’s a statue of you out in front of Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.
But with each player winning a Heisman – and with each playing in very different eras and very different schemes – we need to look at more than just statistics.
Spurrier finished 9th in the Heisman in 1965 before winning in 1966, confirming that his level of play wasn’t just a flash in the pan but consistently great across multiple seasons. He threw for 2012 yards in 1966, which doesn’t sound like very much….until you consider that the passing leader in 1966 for yards was Arizona’s Mark Reed with 2368. If we compare that to Tebow in 2007, Graham Harrell led the NCAA with 5705 yards, and that was a huge step up from Wuerffel’s 1996 when the NCAA leader was Wyoming’s Josh Wallwork (4090 yards).
Wueffel and Tebow clearly have the longevity edge, having played in 44 and 55 games, respectively, during their Gator careers. Spurrier only played in 30. Of course, some of that was because Freshmen were not allowed to play when Spurrier attended, whereas Wuerffel started his freshman season and Tebow contributed mightily. Wuerffel also had a 3rd place Heisman finish on his resume along with the win, while Tebow finished 3rd and 5th in his other two years as the starter.
I’m not sure you can go wrong with any of these guys. But when it comes down to it, Wuerffel delivered one National Championship as a starter and 4 SEC Championships. Tebow delivered just one of each as a starter. To me, that means Wuerffel takes the nod over Timmy.
But I’m not sure how you can say Wuerffel was better than Spurrier. The “sleeping giant” whom Bear Bryant referenced when talking about Florida was predicated in some ways on what Spurrier had shown as the QB there. The fact that Bryant’s words were carried out under Wuerffel (and the direction of Spurrier) doesn’t really negate the fact that Spurrier was the first to do it at the highest level at the school.
Give Spurrier Riedel Anthony, Ike Hilliard and Jaquez Green, and I suspect he would have lit things up in a way either similar or superior to Wuerffel. It’s always tough to compare eras, and we’re usually more apt to remember recent players as better, but I think in many ways, Spurrier is the Gators program and not just because of the success he had as head coach.