By Will Miles
NFL Draft Recap
The NFL Draft was last week. Eight Gators were drafted and three more were signed as undrafted free agents, a testament to the success of the 2020 team.
What I’ve decided to do is grade the draft not on whether I like the pick for a particular team, but how I think the pick fits the Gators player. So, for example, if I give a pick a ‘C’, it doesn’t mean I don’t like the player or the position that he was drafted at, it just means that I don’t think the team that drafted him will be able to maximize his skill set.
Pitts to the Atlanta Falcons
Pitts just became the highest drafted tight end in NFL history.
He’s deserving of the honor. The guy was absolutely unguardable when he was on the field last season. In some ways, he – more than the shoe toss – is the reason Florida wasn’t playing for the title against Alabama last year since he sat that game against LSU out.
I do wonder though, whether the expectations of being called perhaps the best tight end ever to be drafted might be a lot for Pitts to live up to. It’s not that he isn’t talented. It’s that the expectations are going to be 100-catch seasons and someone who was unguardable in the NFL as he was at the college level.
That’s a difficult standard to achieve, though with Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley taking pressure off, perhaps Pitts really is good enough to achieve it. It took Pitts a year to earn his way into Dan Mullen’s lineup at Florida, and it might be a slow build to the lofty expectations that are going to be placed on him.
In the long run, I think the Falcons are going to be happy that they took Pitts. But I also think it may take a year or two before he shows everyone in Atlanta the player that we’ve seen in Gainesville the past two seasons.
Grade: A
Toney to New York (Giants)
I love Kadarius Toney. I’ve been one of his biggest supporters since he came to Florida and never understood how he wasn’t used more prior to 2020.
But I really don’t like the fit with the New York Giants. I’m just not a believer in Daniel Jones. I’m certainly not planning on back-up Mike Glennon taking the Giants to the promised land. That means that the guys throwing the ball to Toney are going to be below average and so his opportunities are going to be limited.
The beauty of the Kyle Trask to Toney connection was that Trask was able to deliver the ball to Toney in-stride consistently to allow him to use his unique skills after the catch. If Jones or Glennon are unable to do the same thing, Toney’s skills will be underutilized.
If there was a chance to significantly upgrade at the QB position for New York over the next few years, I’d be higher on this move. But New York GM Dave Gettleman’s job is tied to Jones’ performance and so it could be a tough couple of years for a guy like Toney.
On Twitter before the draft, I expressed wanting to see him in Green Bay (or whoever Aaron Rodgers ends up playing with). That kind of QB would maximize Toney’s skill set.
Maybe I’m underestimating Toney’s ability to be a difference maker even with an average QB, but I’ll be surprised if he thrives with Jones under center.
Grade: C
Trask to Tampa Bay
I’m not sure I’ve seen anyone be critical of this move yet.
I get it. Tom Brady is the GOAT. Trask is used to being a backup QB and will know how to prepare. Tampa Bay is a good organization, keeps Trask in Florida and Bruce Arians has a reputation as an excellent developer of talent.
But I don’t think this is the slam dunk that some people believe it to be.
Brady has repeatedly said that he wants to play until he’s 45. That would give him two more years until retirement, and quite honestly, I’m not going to believe he’ll actually retire until he finally announces it.
But let’s take Brady at his word and assume that he retires the season after he turns 45 (2022). That means that Trask will have two years of sitting and two years left on his rookie deal with a team that is starting to get really expensive.
The reason is that with a limited amount of time with Brady, the Bucs are going to go all-in to bring home another Lombardi Trophy (as they should). That means sacrificing long-term cap flexibility to win now. It also means that if Brady hands over the reins to Trask in Trask’s third year, he’s going to have an aging, expensive team and likely be asked to carry a considerable load.
Add to that the burden of having to replace a legend, and it’s not just pulling Brady off a boat during a Super Bowl parade like the last backup.
Trevor Lawrence has a tough situation going to the Jags and having to completely rebuild, but it’s possible that Trask finds himself in the same situation in a few years with the Buccaneers. The difference is that Lawrence has 5 years to figure things out, while Trask may only have two.
Grade: C-
Marco Wilson to Arizona Cardinals
The NFC West consists of the Cardinals, the Los Angeles Rams, the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks. That division is about as far from Florida as you can get.
And that’s probably a really, really good thing for Marco Wilson.
After a promising start in Gainesville, Wilson injured his knee, played out of position and then really struggled in 2020, capping off those struggles with the shoe tossing incident that Florida fans are going to swear about for years. A change of scenery is a good thing for Wilson.
Nobody ever doubted Wilson’s athletic ability. He showed early-on – and certainly showed during his pro day – that he has all the tools that you need to be an elite corner. That’s why Arizona drafted him because if they watched the tape against Texas A&M, they would have stayed away.
But the Cardinals had an average defense (12th in points per game allowed) in 2020 so Wilson isn’t going to be asked to be a savior. They also have Dre Kirkpatrick and Patrick Peterson at corner, so Wilson isn’t going to be on an island either.
In my mock draft, I had Wilson going to Seattle because I thought Pete Carroll would be a good fit and really did think going west was good for Wilson. If he fails in Arizona, it won’t be because of fan criticism or because of a loss of confidence.
Grade: A
Evan McPherson to the Cincinnati Bengals
Any time you’re a kicker who gets drafted, the grade has to be an A.
The days of Sebastian Janikowski going in the first round (Lol, Raiders) are over, but the vast majority of kickers are signed as undrafted free agents or brought in to compete for a job. You don’t waste a 5th round pick on a kicker to have him compete for a job.
The Bengals had a bit of a unique circumstance last year as Randy Bullock made 21 of 26 fields goals last season, including 7 of 8 from 40-49 yards and 3 of 5 from 50+ yards. But then Bullock was hurt and Austin Seibert came in and made 6 of 8, but was only 1 of 3 from 40+ yards out.
This one comes down to money for the Bengals. Bullock signed a 1-year, $1.75 million deal with the Lions, which is 2-3 times what McPherson will make annually. But if you’re going to prove yourself as a kicker, there’s really no better place than the AFC North.
And for a kicker to be given the starting job coming to camp, that’s a great situation to be in.
Grade: A
Shawn Davis to the Indianapolis Colts
Davis has put some really good things on film in his time at Florida. But he was also part of a secondary that got torched throughout 2020.
This is where the pro-day performances really start to make a difference. Prior to the pro-days, I suspect that Wilson and Davis were ranked similarly, perhaps with Davis even ranked ahead of Wilson. But the physical skills that Wilson showed pulled him ahead, and appreciably so.
Now, everyone remembers the Mike Mamula’s of the world who perform great in the combine and don’t pan out in the end. But the fact is that Wilson’s pro-day was much better than Davis’ in that Davis didn’t perform the 40-yard dash, the shuttle or the 3-cone drill, all drills that translate to speed and change of direction.
But maybe that’s a good thing for Davis. After all, who were the Colts’ safeties last year? If you knew the answer was Khari Willis and Julian Blackmon, you’re a better fan that I. They’re both young players, drafted in 2019 and 2020, respectively, and so Davis is joining players his age who have just gone through the transition he is about to go through.
But they’re not so established that Davis won’t have a chance to win playing time. I think that’s a win for him.
Grade: B
Tedarrell Slaton to the Green Bay Packers
The Packers had the #1 offense in 2020, but the 13th ranked defense was the weak link.
This is even more true when you consider that the prolific offense often put opponents behind, turned them one-dimensional, and likely helped the defense’s numbers more than its true level of performance.
Za’Darius Smith had 12.5 sacks in 2020 and was rewarded with a Pro Bowl birth. The Packers also have DL Rashan Gary (5 sacks, 35 tackles) and NT Kenny Clark (2 sacks, 42 tackles) up-front. This means that Slaton will have time to grow and should be more of a rotation piece rather than someone who is expected to contribute immediately.
This is a good thing, as Slaton spent most of his high school career on the offensive side of the ball. That means that he is generally pretty green – even with three years in Todd Grantham’s scheme – but it also means he likely has room to grow.
The Packers are in win-now mode, so growth likely will take a couple of years. But the Packers also have the team in place to allow that to happen so Slaton will get a solid chance to succeed.
Grade: B-
Stone Forsythe to the Seattle Seahawks
I love this pick for Seattle and for Forsythe.
The Seahawks offensive line has been poor now for years. This year it came to a head as according to Pro Football Focus, Wilson has been pressured more than any other QB since entering the NFL and has voiced his displeasure with that situation this offeseason.
The Seahawks only had three picks in the draft and took Forsythe with their third pick in the 6th round. Forsythe excelled in the Gators scheme in 2020 as a pass blocker. While the right side of the Gators line struggled to hold up in pass protection, Forsythe was often left on an island against many of the SEC’s best pass rushers and was able to hold his own. His play is a big reason that the Gators ranked 8th in sack rate allowed on passing downs and 25th in sack rate overall.
While Football Outsiders suggests that the Gators offensive line wasn’t terrible in the run game, overall stats seem to differ. This is where Forsythe likely has to improve as the Gators were significantly worse running to the left side than their right. Not all of that is on Stone, but he wasn’t exactly pushing people back on a regular basis either.
Regardless, the Seahawks don’t need a road grader. They need someone who can help protect Wilson. Forsythe is a relatively cheap investment for them to try to get that done.
Grade: A
Undrafted Free Agents
There are examples of undrafted free agents who make a significant impact on the league, but it is definitely an uphill climb now for Trevon Grimes (Eagles), Brett Heggie (New York Giants) and Donovan Stiner (Steelers).
I was a little bit surprised to see Stiner get signed. I liked his play early in his career because he always seemed to be in the right spot. Sometimes his physical skills weren’t enough to get the guy to the ground, but he was able to slow up things enough that big plays were few and far between. That was not the story in 2020 as big plays were all over the place and offenses sometimes targeted Stiner schematically. As the players get faster and stronger, things are only going to get more difficult.
Heggie is an interesting case. His flexibility of being able to play guard and center definitely helps him, and you don’t start 31 games at Florida without having some real skills. Still, Heggie seemed to regress in 2019 and 2020, particularly when it came to aggressiveness in the run game. In 2019 he’d often pull across the formation and be tentative about clearing the way. That obviously won’t work in the NFL, but Heggie is going to have value as depth in case of injury.
Trevon Grimes was the surprise. I had Grimes going in the 3rd round, and I don’t think anybody who’s watched the Gators thought he wouldn’t get drafted. Grimes has tweeted some cryptic things since going undrafted, but he also signed in a great place for him. Philly has had poor wide receiver play ever since it made it to the Super Bowl. Drafting Devonta Smith is their attempt to fix that, but Grimes is going to have a chance to be a significant piece of the puzzle if he can show the skills that made him a top recruit in 2017.
Gator baseball wins a series over Vanderbilt
With all the draft excitement, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention the Gators winning 2 of 3 against Vanderbilt this weekend and then taking a Tuesday night game against Stetson.
That win over the Hatters gives Florida 11 wins in its last 13 games. That follows a 4-6 stretch where the team really struggled and so has been a welcome change. That change really does seem to be tied to the extra inning home run by Kendrick Calilao against Florida State back in mid-April.
The Gators consistently found their way into the Commodores bullpen, even in the series-opening loss. Franco Aleman struggled, giving up 9 runs in 5 IP, but Florida was able to force Vandy starter Kumar Rocker into 95 pitches in just 5 innings, forcing Vanderbilt to use four more pitchers to secure the W.
They then touched up probably #1 draft pick Jack Leiter for 7 runs in 4 IP on Saturday, and while Gators starter Tommy Mace gave up 7 runs as well, he did it over 8 innings and was able to right the ship in the 5th-8th innings (1 run) when Leiter was knocked out.
In the third game, Hunter Barco put up a line similar to what he’s been putting up for a while now (5.1 IP, 3 ER), and Jack Leftwich threw 2.2 scoreless innings to close it out.
Overall, this was a gutty series for the Gators. Not many (including me) thought they were going to win the series, certainly not after giving up 11 runs in the opener. Arkansas –ranked first in the country and ahead of Vanderbilt – is coming up in late May for another test for this Gators team.
But you have to enjoy a series win over a team as good as Vandy. This Gators team still has holes and is still inconsistent, but they showed against the Commodores that their top-end level of play is up there with the best in the country.