By Will Miles
Stricklin under fire?
I wrote last week of Gators AD Scott Stricklin needing to feel some heat if Tim Walton and Kevin O’Sullivan were going to feel heat for their performances as well. I also said that I didn’t think any of the three really needed to feel any heat just yet. That was before the firing of soccer coach Tony Amato.
The firing of Amato comes amidst similar allegations to what we heard about former Gators basketball coach Cameron Newbauer. It also continues a disturbing pattern of Stricklin trying to rehab coaches behind the scenes without any real signs of improvement after his intervention.
Amato had to know what the environment is around Stricklin based on the Newbauer situation. And Stricklin should be asking questions of these coaches about how they’ll treat the players in a way that is far more in-depth than he is, because it keeps happening. Either that, or his level of oversight within these programs is awful given that the treatment of the players seems to be an open secret.
Since 2021, a large number (13 players, 30% of the roster) have decided to enter the transfer portal. Another four players quit with remaining eligibility. Amato’s rosters at Arizona had higher transfer rates than the national average, indicating that there was data out there prior to his arrival that suggested a much deeper dive.
One of the stories coming out of the announcement of recruiting sanctions against Dan Mullen last year was how upset the higher-ups were at the breach of ethics. I think that’s a good thing, even if I think it’s naïve to believe that recruiting and college football are ethical. But if you’re going to preach ethics, you can’t then turn a blind eye to things like this.
In two separate circumstances, women on Gators sports teams have indicated that they have thought about killing themselves because of the treatment of the head coach. If that isn’t an ethical breach, I don’t know what is.
Barco to undergo Tommy John surgery
Florida’s best pitcher – Hunter Barco – announced that he is going to undergo Tommy John surgery.
The timing of the injury makes it unlikely that Barco ever pitches for Florida again, given that while the injury will hurt his draft stock, the unknown might be better than the known were he to come back and underperform. Additionally, the resources for rehabilitation with a professional team would likely be superior to those provided by UF, or at least in-line with the protocols for that team.
What that means is that Barco ends his UF career with 152.2 innings pitched and a 3.18 ERA. His 69 strikeouts this season are the best on the staff (even after having missed a few weeks) and his K/BB ratio of 6.3 is also a team best.
The good news is that Tommy John surgery is no longer a death sentence for a pitcher. It used to be that this surgery used to put a players’ career in doubt or at least take a large chunk of velocity off of their fastball. But you don’t have to look too far to see players who have had the surgery and succeeded, including maintaining their stuff.
Shohei Ohtani – last year’s American League MVP – underwent Tommy John surgery and didn’t pitch at all in 2019. According to Fangraphs, his average fastball velocity in 2018 was 96.7 mph, and this year his average fastball velocity has been 97.5. Ohtani’s teammate Noah Syndergaard made his return from the surgery late last season and has a 2.63 ERA thus far in 2022.
So hopefully Barco becomes one of those success stories. Certainly, it was fun to watch him pitch while he was at Florida. Only a small number of players can say that they are the ace of a staff at the SEC level and Barco will always be able to say that.
Baseball goes 3-1 this week
Not all the news was bad for Florida this week. The Gators took 2 of 3 from Kentucky in Gainesville over the weekend and then beat South Florida 18-3 on Tuesday night.
There are two things that I think are great news coming out of those four games. The first is that Florida only made two errors in the four games, both in the game against USF. The second is that the Gators held the opposition under 3 runs (6 runs total) in its three wins.
Certainly Kentucky is not Tennessee or Vanderbilt when it comes to baseball. But you have to start making progress somewhere, and Florida’s defense has been atrocious this season and the pitching has been really inconsistent. To see both of those things coming around should give some hope for the rest of the season, and perhaps more importantly, building into next year.
This still isn’t a great team. That’s clear both from the 26-18 overall record and particularly the 8-13 record in the SEC. But you can’t get it all back at once and so the only way to start building is to start with the first brick. This week was a good start.
Softball also goes 3-1
Since I last checked in on the Gators softball team, that team has also gone 3-1. That includes a 5-0 win over Stetson and then taking 2 of 3 against LSU in Baton Rouge.
The Gators success on the road continues, as they are now 20-3 away from Gainesville compared to just 18-10 at home. The games over LSU also put the team at 38-13 overall and 13-11 in the conference, positioning Florida as a team that has a chance to host a Super Regional.
The Gators are currently ranked 9th in the NCAA RPI rankings, so right now they probably aren’t in line to host such an event. But there are two things to consider there. First, I’m not sure given their record on the road that the Gators wouldn’t be better served by playing their tournament games away from Gainesville. This team seems to have an attitude that helps it play better on the road, and in a tournament against teams that are close talent-wise, perhaps being on the road would be a benefit.
The second thing though is that Florida has four more games that should all be winnable and then the SEC Tournament to prove that it is worthy. The Gators might not be positioned to host just yet, but they’ll have the opportunity to earn that privilege if they’re able to win out.
We’ll see whether they can take that next step.
Walton wins 1000
That 38th win over LSU gave Florida coach Tim Walton his 1,000th win at the college level. 877 of those have come at Florida, which is pretty mind boggling when you consider it only took him 17 seasons to accomplish the feat.
What that means is that Walton has averaged nearly 52 wins per year in a sport where teams play somewhere between 65-75 games per season. That 82-percent clip is extra impressive when you consider the 8 SEC regulator season titles, the 5 SEC tournament titles, the 13 regional titles, the 10 super regional titles and the 2 national championships.
Florida is lucky to have Walton in charge of the softball program. Hopefully he remains there for a long time to come.
Drafted Gators
The Gators had three players drafted into the NFL this past weekend. Kaiir Elam went 23rd overall to the Bills, Zachary Carter went 95th overall to the Bengals and Dameon Pierce went 107th overall to the Texans.
As a Bills fan still stinging from the 13-second debacle against the Chiefs last season, I couldn’t be more thrilled with Buffalo taking a corner. The fact that he’s from my favorite school, and that he likely was somewhat undervalued because of injuries this past season, only make it better. I don’t profess to be an expert at cornerback evaluation, but I didn’t see anything from LSU’s Derek Stingley, Jr. (taken 3rd overall by the Texans) that I didn’t see from Elam.
Carter to the Bengals is an interesting fit. The Bengals play a fairly traditional 4-man front, meaning that Carter is going to be competing with defensive ends Trey Hendrickson (14 sacks in 2021) and Sam Hubbard (7 sacks in 2021) for playing time. This is where his experience sliding inside at Florida is likely going to be valuable. I’ve mentioned this a lot recently, but when the Giants beat the Patriots in those Super Bowls, it was the ability to have pass rushers who could slide inside and were strong enough at the point of attack against the run that ended up driving Tom Brady nuts. Carter may bring that to the Bengals.
Finally, we have Dameon Pierce to the Texans. Pierce is going to be their starter before the 2022 season ends, which means that’s a valuable pick for the third round. He just has to beat out Marlon Mack (3.6 yards per attempt in 2021) and Rex Burkhead (3.5) for the starting job. If he can pick up the pass protections and catch the ball out of the backfield, he may end up being one of the best rookies out there.
So while it may have been disappointing to only see three Gators go off the board, I do think all three are going to be successful at their next stops. How successful is up to them now, but the good news is that all three seem to have found good fits for their skills.
Malik Davis to the Cowboys
I’m really interested to see how the Cowboys use Malik Davis (assuming he makes the roster) now that he’s signed there as an undrafted free agent.
Ezekiel Elliott is getting paid a ton, and is definitely the starter. Tony Pollard played well last year (5.5 yards per rush on 130 carries) so is likely cemented as the back-up. But Pollard caught 39 passes while Elliott caught 47 balls. Clearly getting the ball to the running back out of the backfield is a priority in Dallas.
That’s a strength for Davis. Not only is he elusive in space, he has great hands and the ability to accelerate if nobody is around him. Neither Rico Dowdle or JaQuan Hardy – the backs behind Pollard on the depth chart – caught a ball last season. Aaron Shampklin – the Harvard running back also signed by the Cowboys as a UFA – was primarily a runner last season, only catching 16 balls.
That means that if Davis can bring value on special teams, he’s likely going to find a place on the roster. There is always a need for a running back who can catch the ball and is good in pass protection. That’s doubly true if the back can make someone miss in space.
Jordan Herman commits
Florida added a late 2022 class commit in Junior College offensive tackle Jordan Herman. Herman is listed at 6’8” and 370 pounds, exactly the type of size that Napier loves at the position.
Herman may turn out to be a great player, but this signing concerns me. The fact that Napier is going to the Junior College level to find offensive linemen for the ’22 class means that he doesn’t like what he sees on the offensive line thus far. It also means that we’re likely going to see some transfers out at that position at some point in the near future.
More than that, there hasn’t been much noise about players transferring from Florida. The deadline to enter the transfer portal and be eligible for the 2022 season was this past Sunday, meaning that the exodus that a lot of us were expecting from Florida’s roster has yet to happen.
I still don’t know how Napier is going to get to his 85 scholarship limit based on the current numbers. He’s over by a few currently. He’s bringing in Herman. There are rumors that Florida is after another offensive lineman and they could certainly use another skill player, either at tight end or receiver. Who leaves and how they leave is going to be fascinating as the Gators pare down the roster to meet the scholarship limit.
Anthony Richardson, First Rounder?
Now that the 2022 NFL Draft is over, everyone is putting together their mock 2023 drafts, and Anthony Richardson is appearing at the high end of a lot of those drafts.
Is that justified? I think we need to hold our horses just a bit. Richardson has a ton of tools that NFL teams look for in a QB. His release is really quick and he has all the arm strength needed to play the position. He also adds a second dimension with his ability to run the football.
But he did only complete 59 percent of his throws last season and had a 6:5 TD:INT ratio in his limited playing time. Obviously, that performance made us all pine for more, but if he just replicates that performance with more volume, he isn’t going to be a first round pick.
So what that means is that Richardson has to improve – and significantly – to be worth of that sort of lofty status. I think that is possible, but we also have to remember that he’s learning a new offense as well. I thought Joe Burrow was can’t miss when he transferred from Ohio State to LSU and it took him a year to settle in and become a Heisman-level player.
There were publications last season that picked Emory Jones to be a top-10 pick as well. That was based on potential and trust in Dan Mullen more than anything we saw on the field. That doesn’t mean Richardson can’t improve or live up to that level of hype, but it does mean giving him some time to adjust to Napier’s scheme is probably fair.
Do we want Richardson to play that well?
This is the more interested question to me than any projections of Richardson. Do we even want him to play that well in 2022?
Obviously, that would be fun. Football is so much fun to watch when your team’s offense is humming. An elite-level Richardson would mean the Gators would score a ton of points.
But this team has holes all over the place. The defensive line is really, really thin. The offensive line and running game have a lot to prove. And the wide receivers don’t seem like they are going to be difference makers either. If Richardson puts up a season like Tim Tebow did in 2007, that would be a lot of fun. But that 2007 season also ended with a 9-4 season and a frustrating loss to Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
Use Burrow again for this thought experiment. What if Burrow had played at an elite level for LSU in 2018? That team lost to Florida on a pick-6 and to Texas A&M in the 74-72 shootout that changed college overtime rules. But that team also got dominated by Alabama 29-0, the same Alabama team that then got dominated in the championship game by Clemson. That Clemson team couldn’t keep up with LSU the following season after losing its four starting defensive linemen to the NFL Draft.
Timing matters and that 2019 LSU team was far more equipped to compete for a championship than the 2018 one. The same thing is going to be true for Florida, as Napier will have had a full year to plug holes that crop up this season and hopefully the addition of some 5-star talent who can contribute right away (ala Percy Harvin and Tim Tebow in 2006).
So if Richardson is truly elite and a top-10 draft pick, he should go and get the money. But if he struggles at times but shows flashes of brilliance that actually might be better for Florida in the long run. Because an elite Anthony Richardson is worth a lot more to Florida in 2023 than he is in 2022.