By Will Miles
Stewart Reese
The Gators offensive line got a boost with the decision of Mississippi State graduate transfer Stewart Reese to Florida.
Reese played both right tackle and right guard with the Bulldogs, though he was a tackle under Dan Mullen. Regardless of where he lines up though, he’s going to be a big help to the Gators OL.
As I broke down in detail in my most recent article, the Gators offensive line struggled overall, but the real struggles were concentrated on the right hand side. In fact, the offense averaged more than a yard and a half when running behind the right hand side than when running behind the left.
Watch the film of Reese and you’ll see someone who may be limited in pass protection but does seem to understand his assignments. He also is a road grader who is going to aggressively carry out his assignments – something John Hevesy will absolutely love.
There also won’t be a culture shock for Reese as his brother is already on the Gators and he was coached by Mullen and Hevesy for two seasons prior to Mullen moving to Florida.
This is a home-run transfer for Florida.
Recruiting Momentum
Florida’s momentum on the recruiting trail has stalled, with the Gators falling to sixth in the overall rankings. Tennessee’s momentum on the trail has picked up, with the Volunteers rising all the way to second in the rankings.
But as the baseball saying goes, momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher and in recruiting, it’s only as good as the next recruiting commitment.
Florida has a chance to pick up momentum on May 24, as 4-star Armwood High School athlete Charles Montgomery is expected to select the Gators. Montgomery is the 244th nationally ranked recruit. He’s also 5’10” tall and 185 lbs, so very different than the types of receivers Dan Mullen has recruited thus far (think Van Jefferson and Trevon Grimes).
However, someone like Montgomery profiles as a replacement for someone like Kadarius Toney. Best case scenario, he can be a receiving threat out of the backfield similar to Lamical Perine but with more big play ability.
The Gators offense has been good the past two seasons, but explosivity has been missing. Mullen has been able to generate big plays through scheme but he hasn’t really had a guy who can take a two-yard screen to the house.
Montgomery has a chance to be that guy.
Perine Replacement
I think Dameon Pierce is going to do an admirable job replacing Lamical Perine on the ground in 2020. The question I have is who is going to replace his abilities catching the ball out of the backfield.
That is the skill that got Perine drafted, and it was the differentiator when it came to Mullen choosing Perine to be on the field over Pierce or Malik Davis.
Not only did Perine catch the ball a lot (40 receptions), his ability to be a threat catching the ball allowed Mullen to split him out wide and have the defense respect that. Combine that with splitting Kyle Pitts out wide and Mullen was able to create mismatches all over the field for Kyle Trask to exploit.
Maybe Pierce can catch the ball, but he only had four catches in 2019. The same applies for Malik Davis, who only caught six balls in 2019 and never really got untracked. Iverson Clement seems like that kind of player but he hasn’t really gotten onto the field at all except against cupcakes. Same for Nay’Quan Wright.
Lots of fans are going to look to the production from the running game and use that as justification for who the running back should be in 2020. But the efficacy in the passing game – both in pass protection and being able to split wide – is the skill that will open up the Florida offense and allow Mullen to create mismatches.
Diwun Black
News came from Twitter this week that linebacker Diwun Black – the 151st ranked player in the 2019 recruiting class – is going to enroll at Florida in December.
First, I think we need to congratulate Black. After not having the grades to get into Florida, he went to a junior college and buckled down to gain admittance. There are plenty of players who would have hung their heads at not getting in or wouldn’t have put in the work, and Black appears to have done just that.
The other thing I think we need to acknowledge is that Florida can really use a talent infusion at linebacker. As a recruit, Black was 6’ 3.5” and 216 lbs and was listed with a 4.84 40-yard dash time. His junior college profile has him up to 226 but that’s still pretty small for a linebacker. For reference, Don’t’a Hightower was listed at 270 lbs as a recruit.
But one thing that Todd Grantham and Dan Mullen have been consistent on is that they want versatility in their defensive players. Amari Burney proved to fit that definition last season and he’s listed at 6’2” and 224 pounds.
I’d expect Black to be able to do similar things to Burney once he finally gets to Gainesville.
Replacing Receivers
There’s been a lot of talk this offseason about Florida having to replace Tyrie Cleveland, Josh Hammond, Freddie Swain and Van Jefferson.
This was mitigated by the return of Trevon Grimes for his senior season, but Grimes return actually makes me think of something else: who is going to replace the receivers who leave after 2020?
Grimes will be gone. So will Kadarius Toney. Jacob Copeland will be draft eligible if he steps up into the role. If Justin Shorter gets eligible, he would be able to declare as well.
Perhaps that means that Shorter not getting a waiver would be better for the Gators. But I think it also points towards something that Florida coaches are going to have to be extremely cognizant of.
They absolutely cannot just rely on Grimes, Toney and Copeland without allowing players like Dionte Marks, Ja’markis Weston, Trent Whittemore, Jaquavion Fraziars and Xzavier Henderson to get major reps. These guys need to get game experience, and not just against the Eastern Washington’s of the world.
If we don’t see two of these guys playing major minutes and contributing in a major way against LSU and Georgia, there will be a ton of uncertainty at the wide receiver position going into 2021.
Emory Jones vs. Anthony Richardson
With all of the talk about Emory Jones vs. Kyle Trask coming into this season, I think it really obscures the true QB battle that is going to take place in fall camp: Jones vs. Anthony Richardson.
It’s no secret that I believe Mullen has to find an elite QB to overcome some of his recruiting deficiencies consistently against teams like Georgia and Alabama. That means that the Jones vs. Richardson battle is going to be fascinating.
When Feleipe Franks went down last season against Kentucky, most Gators fans were surprised that the replacement was Kyle Trask and not Jones. Trask clearly had won the back-up job and we all saw why. I don’t think this is an indictment of Jones because Trask played so well, but it does cast some doubt on whether Jones is truly a special enough player to lead Florida to championships.
No such determination can be made about Richardson yet. While he will likely only play in four games in 2020 so that he can redshirt, I’ll be fascinated to see how many reps he gets in those four games and whether it becomes clear that Mullen is preparing him to make a run for the starting job in 2021 or whether he is comfortable with Jones at the helm.
Competition is always good, especially at the QB position. But the fact that Jones hasn’t been able to take control of the position yet means I think Richardson has a shot. Mullen has to hit with one of either Jones, Richardson or 2021 commit Carlos Del Rio or else risk falling into the good-but-not-great zone that Jim Harbaugh has fallen into at Michigan.
He isn’t going to defer to experience if he has a guy with a shot to be great.
Gator Hall of Famers
In late April, Florida announced that Tim Tebow, Brandon Spikes and Brandon James were all inducted into the University of Florida Hall of Fame.
Tebow and Spikes were no-brainer selections, but I was glad to see James selected as he was a major contributor to those championship teams. There wasn’t a more exciting time than when you realized that the Tennessee punter had outkicked his coverage and James was going to get a chance to return one to the house.
But beyond the returns (229 punts and kickoffs combined) and the touchdowns (5 returns for TD) was that I always felt comfortable that James was going to make the right play. Maybe he muffed a punt in his time at Florida, but I don’t remember it. It was one of the things that I loved about Freddie Swain being back there for the Gators this past season, but Swain didn’t have near the ability to flip the field that James did.
You don’t have to look any further than the SEC Championship Game in 2006 to understand how important that is. James didn’t factor into the key play or do anything special other than catch the punts sent his way in the game. But the game swung when a booming punt by Chris Hetland was fumbled by Arkansas sophomore Reggie Fish. The ball was recovered by Wondy Pierre-LLouis for a TD and Florida never looked back.
Often we look at the plays that a returner makes and point towards that to indicate his level of greatness. James certainly had some of those.
But I think just as often it is the special teams player who makes the non-special play consistently who adds more value. The fact that James was able to do both is a big reason why he’s received this honor.
Percy Harvin back to the NFL
Speaking of that 2006-2008 run, Percy Harvin recently announced that he would like another shot in the NFL.
Harvin was an electric talent at Florida and remained one in the NFL, though his efficacy waned considerably after he left the Vikings for Seattle in 2013.
Whether Harvin will get another shot is one thing, but I think it’s interesting to think about where would be a good fit for Harvin’s specific skills.
The first thing to consider is who needs a kick returner. While some of Harvin’s receiving skills are likely a little bit rusty, he can immediately add value by using his speed and ability to see the field on returns. The worst three teams in the NFL on kickoffs (according to Football Outsiders) were Dallas, Pittsburgh and Arizona. If we look at the same stat for punt returns, the worst teams in the NFL were Carolina, Denver and Arizona.
While Arizona doesn’t jump to mind immediately for Harvin to be successful because of the presence of Larry Fitzgerald and newly acquired DeAndre Hopkins, the fact that their third receiver is Keesean Johnson means Harvin might be able to get quite a bit of time in the slot.
Combine that with the ability to contribute on special teams immediately and I think the Cardinals are the best landing spot for Harvin’s comeback.
California Closings
If you’ve been paying any attention to coronavirus re-openings, one thing that may have shown up on your radar was the announcement by California that schools in the California State University system are going to remain virtual in the fall.
There are two separate entities that make these sorts of decisions, so the University of California system (which includes UCLA and Cal) are not affected by this decision.
However, I do think it brings up something that hasn’t been discussed much when it comes to re-opening: liability.
Reasonable people took a look at the disease landscape and decided to close colleges in California. You can agree or disagree with the decision, but you can’t deny that people with a vested interest in keeping colleges open decided to remain conservative.
If other schools in the country open up in the fall and there isn’t a resurgence of the virus, the criticism of the California system will be relatively minimal. However, if other schools open up for the fall and there is a resurgence in the virus, this conservative tact is going to look prescient.
Moreover, you can bet that lawyers for students and student-athletes who are exposed to COVID-19 are going to argue that it is a risk that these school should have prepared for because it was predicted by the schools in California. The first player who brings home the virus to a family member who ends up really sick is going to have a pretty compelling legal argument.
So when we’re talking about re-opening or talking about the risk to the college-age players, I think I agree that the risk is minimal to those players and likely their ability to play safely is something that can be done. But that’s not the question I imagine most school administrators are asking.
I imagine the question they are asking is whether the revenue generated from the season outweighs the risk of the lawsuits that could potentially come.
SEC Athletes back to Campus
That’s one of the things that the SEC powers-that-be are going to have to weigh when they decide when and if to bring athletes back to campus in a vote on May 22.
If Gainesville is going to host pro football games – as suggested by Governor Ron DeSantis and entertained by AD Scott Stricklin – there’s no reason that they can’t host college football games. That applies to logistical arguments (turf maintenance aside) and health arguments.
Let’s be honest: athletic programs are hurting right now because of the cancellation of the NCAA Tournament. They are going to be hurting in a much bigger way if football doesn’t get back to normal.
Just to get an idea, in 2011-2012, Florida brought in $74 million in total revenue from football (compared to $23 million in expenses). That is 61% of total athletic revenue based on the $121 million in revenue reported by USA Today. $23 million of that revenue was from ticket revenue, and it’s a good bet that the vast majority of that ticket revenue is tied to football.
So too is the $46 million in contributions to the program, but let’s just focus on ticket revenue for now.
If the season is played with social distancing being implemented in the stands, that probably reduces ticket revenue by about 70-80 percent. The Florida athletic department has averaged about $12 million per year in profit, which means the entire program will be in the red with that kind of decrease in ticket sales.
But the SEC is uniquely set-up much more similarly to the NFL because of the SEC network, where schools are taking home large revenue dollars from ESPN. That could insulate the conference against losses that will occur due to drops in ticket sales.
But because that is unique to the SEC, it makes it fascinating whether the ACC and Big 10 will be as aggressive in getting back to normal as the SEC will. The SEC likely has the ability to make things work even if fans aren’t in the stands at all or in a limited way.
I’m not sure other conferences are in the same boat.