By Will Miles
The Swamp is Open
I know some of you have already been back to the Swamp. I know Florida – perhaps more than any other state – has been “open” during the pandemic. And I know that it was expected with the CDC guidance regarding folks who have been vaccinated that came out last week.
But for someone who lives in Pennsylvania, hearing that the Swamp is going to be open at full capacity in the fall was just about the best way to really indicate that this weird season of our lives is coming to an end.
I attended Florida from 1999-2004 (Ron Zook, yay!). And even though that wasn’t the best era for Gators football, the people that I tailgated with and attended those games with are still the people I talk to. There’s nothing like walking around campus on Saturday morning after waking up (likely after having over imbibed the night before) and feeling the buzz associated with a big game.
That will be back in the fall. Fans who live out of state are going to be able to plan trips to see a game. We’re all going to get to tailgate together, meet old friends and make new ones. And students will wake up on the morning of September 18 and feel the energy that only Alabama coming to town can generate.
I can’t wait.
Dan Mullen and running QBs
Much of the offseason has been dedicated to talking about how Dan Mullen is finally going to get to implement his “true offense” since he is going to be starting a dual-threat QB.
Certainly, Emory Jones (or Anthony Richardson if he wins the job) fit more of the mold of what we think about when we consider how Mullen’s offenses run. But what’s interesting is that when you look at the data, the points scored for Mullen’s offenses don’t track at all with either the amount of QB rush attempts, QB rushing yards or QB yards per rush.
Instead, how effective his offenses are at scoring tracks really well with QB passer rating.
Now, that isn’t to say that a running QB isn’t valuable. Often, that passer rating is augmented by the fact that the defense is cheating up to take away the run which leaves something open that otherwise wouldn’t be. But it also is important to note that just running isn’t really going to be enough.
That’s how you have a Mississippi State offense in 2013 where Dak Prescott rushed for 829 yards (6.2 yards per rush) that only scored 27.7 points per game but in 2014 where Prescott rushed for 986 (in way more attempts) that averaged 36.9 points per game. The difference? Prescott’s passer rating went from 126.6 to 151.7.
Or you had a Gators offense in 2020 that ranked 69th in yards per rush gained and a QB (Trask) who ran for 50 yards total, yet averaged 39.8 points per game. The key? Trask has a QB rating of 180.0.
Dual-threat QBs open up a lot of possibilities. But that’s the key: they have to be dual-threat. If you just rely on the running threat, then you get Nick Fitzgerald rather than Dak Prescott. Mississippi State ranked 10th in yards per rush in 2016 when Fitzgerald took over in 2016, yet still had only the 51st best offense. The reason? Fitzgerald’s QB rating was 124.3.
Evaluating Emory Jones in 2021
That means when we’re evaluating Emory Jones in 2021, we shouldn’t necessarily be asking how effective he’s being running the football. Instead, we should be asking whether being effective running the football is opening up things significantly in the passing game.
College football is interesting, in that on almost every play, someone is open. Defensive schemes just aren’t as complicated as in the NFL. Players also aren’t given the freedom to adjust on the fly either. The result is that the right play caller with the right skill players should be able to win just about every play, assuming the QB is protected.
That’s why I think high school stats for QBs translate so well to college, but not to the NFL. In the pros, you have to throw guys open, which means arm strength and anticipating are key. But at the high school and college levels, the guys are already open, which means you just have to identify the right guy to throw the ball to.
So that’s the way I’m going to evaluate Emory Jones. If he’s constantly trying to stick the ball into a tight spot, it means he hasn’t identified the right guy to throw the ball to. If – on the other hand – he’s often throwing to guys who are wide open (even if he misses a few), that means he’s executing what Mullen wants him to execute.
And we all saw in 2020 what happens when Mullen has a signal caller who is able to do that.
Who is Jones’ security blanket?
Nobody is going to call Nick Fitzgerald a great QB, but the Mississippi State offense was much more pass happy in Fitzgerald’s first season than his second (44% pass plays in 2016 vs. 36% in 2017). One of the big reasons for that disparity? Fred Ross.
Ross caught 88 balls in 2015 with Dak Prescott at the helm and then another 72 passes in 2016 when Fitzgerald took over. He only averaged 12.7 yards per reception over his career, so he wasn’t going down field very often. However, at 6’2” and 205 lbs, he was a big target who could serve as a security blanket for Prescott and Fitzgerald.
With Ross gone, Mullen emphasized the running game in 2017. The Bulldog offense actually improved (30.4 ppg to 32.0 ppg) but had to rely on the running game (1107 yards from Aeris Williams, 984 from Fitzgerald, 396 from Kylin Hill and 446 from Keytaon Thompson) to move the ball.
If you look at the advanced stats from 2017 provided by Football Outsiders, Mississippi State’s offensive line was elite both seasons. I’m not sure that’s something Florida can count on in 2021. That means we need to ask who will be Emory Jones’ security blanket to help move the ball in critical situations.
The easy answer is to look at guys like Xzavier Henderson, Jacob Copeland or Kemore Gamble; guys who have already gotten plenty of playing time at receiver and have played well in stretches. But the guy I’m looking at to play the “Ross” role is running back Malik Davis.
Davis is likely to get squeezed at the running back position with Lorenzo Lingard and Demarkcus Bowman pushing for playing time behind starter Dameon Pierce. Davis showed an ability to catch the ball last year (especially against Georgia) and sometimes split out into the slot. Florida doesn’t really have any proven slot receivers (Henderson and Copeland have both played outside thus far) and so Davis isn’t really pushing someone established aside.
Maybe a receiver steps up into that position and he isn’t needed. But when you hear about Malik Davis sliding outside, there’s merit to the idea.
Reasonable expectations for the 2021 defense
Florida’s defense was a sieve in 2020. That’s not a controversial statement for a team that averaged over 46 points surrendered in four losses.
But that also means that the defense is going to improve no matter what. It would be hard to be that bad two years in a row. But I do think that means it is useful to talk about reasonable expectations for the defense going into the year so that we know whether Todd Grantham has done a good job or not. After all, this isn’t likely to be a top-10 defensive unit so it’s going to be important to measure progress.
The Gators defense gave up 4.6 yards per rush in 2020, ranking 78th in the country. The defense ranked 13th in 2019 (3.4 yards per rush) and was much more successful overall. Will Muschamp always talked about the SEC being a line of scrimmage league, and nowhere was that more apparent than in 2020.
Florida was also 85th in yards per pass allowed in 2020 (7.8), so there’s plenty to fix there too. But you would expect the spring practices to get everyone on the same page and the additions of Jason Marshall and Corey Collier will help there. That means that the key questions going into the 2021 season lie with the ability of the Gators to stop the run.
Most important Gator in 2021
And this is why on my new show, Stand Up & Holler, I placed my confidence in the Gators defense at a 4 out of 10.
To stop the run requires elite defensive tackle play. The Gators got close to that from Kyree Campbell and Adam Shuler in 2019, but could not replicate that with Campbell and Tedarrell Slaton in 2020. Indeed, the defense was downright abysmal up-front until Campbell came back.
Well, Campbell is gone and in come transfers Antonio Valentino and Daquan Newkirk. Valentino has played a lot of football at Penn State and has a good reputation, so likely will be a solid replacement for Campbell. But Newkirk put up numbers very similar to those of Slaton, indicating he will be able to help but isn’t a game changer.
That means the most important Gator in 2021 in my opinion is sophomore Gervon Dexter. Dexter is a former 5-star recruit who showed flashes at times last season. That’s particularly impressive given he didn’t have any of the spring practices that an early enrollee would normally have, yet still was able to contribute.
But flashes aren’t going to be enough in 2021. If Florida is going to get back to a really good or even elite defense, they are going to have to get push up-front. Dexter is the guy who’s going to have to provide that push.
If he can, this defense could be really good and my lack of confidence will be misplaced. But if he struggles or gets injured, we may be in for much of the same that we saw last year.
Janoris Jenkins and Joe Haden?
Joe Haden was a big part of why Florida won the 2008 National Championship.
But when he came to Florida in 2007, he was part of a cornerback group that included Markihe Anderson, Wondy Pierre-Louis, and Jacques Rickerson. Haden made the freshman All-SEC team, but the Gators defense ranked 72nd in the country in yards per pass allowed.
In 2008, Janoris Jenkins arrived and the Gators defense improved to 4th in the country in yards per pass allowed.
That’s what’s been going through my head as I’ve been thinking about the addition of true freshman Jason Marshall. Kaiir Elam felt a little bit like Joe Haden last year. With Marco Wilson, Chester Kimbrough, and Jaydon Hill manning the other corner spot, the Gators struggled against the pass.
So is the arrival of Jason Marshall – the 5-star cornerback from Palmetto High – similar to the arrival of Jenkins in 2008? There is an awesome symmetry there, both in that Elam is being touted as a first round pick next year and Marshall certainly has the pedigree to become one.
Jenkins and Haden were one of the most dynamic corner combinations Florida has ever had, so asking for a repeat of that is asking for a lot. But if Marshall is as good as advertised, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say the Gators pass defense will be a lot better next year.
Greg McElroy on Tim Tebow
Greg McElroy had a lot to say recently about Tim Tebow signing with the Jaguars. It’s clear that Greg didn’t appreciate the effect that Tebow had on the Jets camp when Tebow was traded there in 2012 and didn’t think that the other Jets players appreciate it either.
But note that Tebow was traded to the Jets. He had no choice in the matter of where he went. The Jets decided to put their players through that circus, and somehow Tebow’s the bad guy?
This time, Tebow has chosen to sign with the Jaguars. He also has a champion in Urban Meyer who knows exactly what he’s getting into. Plus, if the players are rolling their eyes at Tebow, Meyer has the kind of relationship where he can probably approach Tebow and tell him to lay low.
But more than that, Tebow is competing for a back-up tight end spot. At the time he went to New York, Tebow was directly competing with McElroy. I have no doubt other QBs saw his throwing motion and wondered what all the commotion was about. But part of being a professional is being able to block that out and do your job.
The 2012 Jets went 6-10 and produced the “butt fumble”, one of the most iconic – and embarrassing – plays you’ll ever see. If starter Mark Sanchez and McElroy were paying attention to how much press Tebow as getting, perhaps that’s the reason they weren’t very effective at playing quarterback.
Softball: SEC Tournament
The Gators softball team finished as runner-ups in the SEC Tournament this past weekend. The 4-0 loss to Alabama came against the Tide’s best pitcher – Montana Fouts – and courtesy of 2 of the 3 runs surrendered by Elizabeth Hightower being unearned.
However, this is the third time this year that the Gators have struggled against Fouts. Hightower won a 2-0 battle in the opener of a three-game series earlier this year where Fouts went the full 7 innings. Then two games later Fouts gave up 2 runs in 7 innings again as the Tide beat Hightower and the Gators 4-2.
Alabama is a really good team. There’s no shame in losing a championship game to the Tide. But Florida is likely going to see the Tide again on their way to the national championship, and they’re going to have to figure out how to score more than two runs against Fouts.
Baseball: Here comes Arkansas
The baseball season is drawing to a close, and the 35-16 Gators squad is set to finish the regular season with a 3-game set against #1 Arkansas (39-10).
Beyond testing itself against the best team in the country, there is still plenty for the Gators to play for. Only the top-8 teams in the country are given national seeding. Those teams then get to host both regional and super regional games on the way to the College World Series. While fans are not still out in full force at many stadiums, being able to sleep in your own bed is a major advantage.
D1Baseball.com currently has the Gators currently ranked #9, which would leave them on the outside looking in at a national seed. However, if they’re able to sweep or even take 2 of 3 from the Razorbacks, then that picture might start to change.
More than that though, the Razorbacks have been the class of the SEC this year along with Vanderbilt. The Gators took 2 of 3 from the Vols at the end of April to establish themselves as contenders and doing the same against Arkansas would only further cement that.
The key – as always with this team – is going to be the pitching staff. Jack Leftwich seems to have really settled into his role in the bullpen, but the ERAs of the pitchers with the most innings (Hunter Barco, Tommy Mace and Franco Aleman) are all north of 4.
That was good enough as Florida gave up 19 runs in its first two games against the Vols but somehow came out of that with a 1-1 record before taking the rubber match. I’m not sure you should count on lightning striking twice against the Razorbacks.