By Will Miles
Tebow to the Jags
I have to admit that I don’t get this. Not for the Jags, but for Tebow.
Tebow is one of the biggest brands there is out there. On a whim, I inquired about what it would take to get Tebow to speak at an event I may or may not be planning, and the answer came back way above my tax bracket. He can make the NFL league minimum by just shaking hands and kissing babies for the rest of his life.
Of course, maybe that’s why Tebow was as good as he was. He has never been one for just shaking hands and kissing babies. For all of the consternation about his throwing motion in the NFL, nobody ever accused him of not putting in the work. Article after article examining his ability to play baseball came to the same conclusion: he might not have the talent to make it, but it wasn’t going to be because he didn’t work his hardest.
So Tebow is going to try out for tight end with the Jaguars. Maybe it works and maybe it doesn’t. But Tebow has never cared about what other people think. I assumed that his focus after baseball would be on building his brand so he could expand his influence even further.
But maybe it’s simpler than that. My 9-year old is playing little league. When I was his age, that was a time when I was the best player on the field. As he’s gotten more involved, so have I as his coach and all of the little things about the game have started to come back to me. In some small way, it’s made me re-live being a kid again.
Tebow doesn’t have to worry about money. He clearly doesn’t worry about what other people think. But what he might have to worry about is he had the chance to try and didn’t take it. We could all be so lucky.
Switch to tight end
Of course, Tebow’s willingness to try tight end and his ability to actually play it are two very different things.
It turns out that QB and tight end are very different positions. Recently retired Jordan Reed was able to make that switch, but he made it at Florida and then was drafted at the position. Also, Jordan Reed played at Florida after Tebow did, which brings up the age issue.
I actually think athletically Tebow will probably be able to be productive. Even if you just have him as a part-time H-back who spells Trevor Lawrence or Travis Etienne on short-yardage runs, he brings value. The thing that worries me the most is his age.
At 34 coming into the season, Tebow is going to be entering years when most professional football players have either started to, or will start to, break down. It’s not that their best isn’t good enough. It’s that their best isn’t available often enough over a 16-game schedule to truly make a difference.
Sure, Tebow hasn’t been hit in a while, but his body still took plenty of punishment at Florida. That was then extended by a few years in the NFL. Combine that with workouts that likely have been tailored towards baseball skills, and I think injury is the big risk you take on with Tebow if he’s able to make the team at tight end.
Still, it’s a zero-risk proposition for the Jags. You sell some jerseys, you get attention on your camp and you get to peek at one of the best college players to ever do it. If Tebow makes it, it’s a great story. If he doesn’t, it’s still a story.
For a franchise that’s struggled to gain any sort of traction in the state – and with the Super Bowl champion Bucs just across the way – attention is a good thing.
Cover for Lawrence?
The other aspect of the Tebow pick-up is the cover that it provides for Trevor Lawrence.
Most number one picks face enormous scrutiny, especially if they don’t perform all that well. Lawrence will face the same, as no Jags fan thinks Tebow is waiting in the wings and realizes that Lawrence is the key to the Jags winning big.
But one thing coaches talk about all the time is distractions and avoiding distractions. With Tebow in camp, you might think that would add to the circus. But for a guy like Lawrence, it really just pulls reporters away from him.
If Tebow runs for two touchdowns in the first game of the year and Lawrence struggles, Tebow’s the story. If Tebow runs for zero touchdowns in the first game and Lawrence struggles, Tebow’s the story. If Lawrence excels early, Lawrence is the story regardless of what Tebow does.
My point is that in most cases, adding Tebow – or any other player who commands media attention – is a net negative. But in this specific case, I think it could work in Trevor Lawrence’s favor.
Isaiah Bond commitment
The Gators received a commitment from wide receiver Isaiah Bond this week.
Bond, the 571st ranked player out of Buford, GA, has a bunch of suitors, including Alabama, Miami and Texas. He also has very wide differences in rankings depending on the recruiting service, as 247Sports has him at 237 overall while ESPN and Rivals have him much lower.
This is partly because of position dependence though. Rivals and ESPN list him as a cornerback, while 247Sports has him as a wide receiver. The fact that he committed to Billy Gonzalez tells you where Florida is planning on playing him.
Bond is fast. 247Sports has him at a 10/10 for speed and a 9/10 for explosiveness. They also have him listed at a 10.59 100-yard dash in track. Keep in mind that D.K. Metcalf just ran the 100-yard dash in 10.36 seconds last week, so Bond is a burner.
That’s actually the perfect type of guy for Gonzalez to develop. Teaching the nuances of the wide receiver position seem to really be a strength for Gonzalez. Guys like Freddie Swain – who struggled early on but possessed good speed – blossomed the minute Gonzalez arrived. Taking a guy with elite speed and teaching him the position seems to be one way to get more out of a recruit than others.
The “Toney” position
Blake Alderman was on Gators Breakdown this week talking about recruiting and he specifically mentioned the staff selling “the Toney position.”
For years, the sales point has been Percy Harvin. But very few people have the skill set of Percy Harvin, and Harvin was an immediate contributor who likely didn’t require a whole lot of development to unleash on the SEC.
But Kadarius Toney came to Gainesville as a QB. He had to be convinced to switch to wide receiver. He then struggled to get playing time behind a bunch of guys who wound up in the NFL even if they weren’t quite as skilled as he was. Yet, there was Toney getting drafted in the first round in last month’s draft.
If you wanted to tell a story of development success, Toney is a much better story than Harvin. It also highlights how the staff will work to a player’s strengths, how a player will learn the nuances of the position, and even how you’re going to have to earn your way onto the field regardless of how talented you are.
I suspect that Toney’s success is going to resonate with guys like Bond. I’m not sure it will resonate with the Harvin-types; guys who are so gifted that they don’t really need hard coaching. But if you’re going to rely on development, the idea that there’s now a “Toney position” to sell is hopefully a pretty effective selling point.
2022 NFL Draft
Mike Renner at Pro Football Focus has a 2022 mock draft out that I think is pretty interesting.
He has Kaiir Elam going 8th overall to the Raiders and Brenton Cox going 32nd overall to the Chiefs. Were those the only Gators defenders to go in the draft, that would give Florida five NFL draft picks who were starters on the 2020 defense (Elam, Cox, Marco Wilson, Shawn Davis and Tedarrell Slaton).
So how in the world was that defense so bad a year ago?
The Gators ranked 78th in yards per rush allowed, yet their starting defensive tackle got drafted. The Gators ranked 85th in yards per pass allowed, yet both of their starting corners (if Elam goes next season) along with a starting safety all got drafted. I harp on recruiting as much as anyone, but the reality is that the problems with the 2020 defense had nothing to do with talent level.
Combine that with other players who might get drafted, like Ventrell Miller, Zach Carter, and Mohamoud Diabate, and it becomes clear to an outsider why the fan base is struggling with the retention of Todd Grantham.
Even if we removed the Gators four losses where they gave up 46.3 (sorry, I just passed out) points per game, they still surrendered 23.1 points per game in their wins. That would’ve been good enough for only 30th in the country and eliminates games against all teams that are any good, or have the ability to cover a wheel route.
I suspect we’re going to look back and see 7 or 8 starters off the 2020 defense as contributors at the NFL level. I’m not sure exactly what conclusions to draw from that, but it certainly is interesting.
Emory Jones going 6th?
Renner also has Emory Jones going 6th in his mock draft, so perhaps I shouldn’t put too much stock in where he thinks guys should go.
Renner admits that this is a major projection. I suppose he’s basing this projection on seeing what Mullen could do with Feleipe Franks and Kyle Trask, two QBs who weren’t exactly tailor-made for Mullen’s offense. But to say Jones will play good enough to get drafted versus saying he’s going to go 6th overall is quite a leap.
It’s a leap not because Jones isn’t skilled. To me, it’s a leap because neither Franks nor Trask was elite their first go round as a starter when they got their chance. Franks was just about average and Florida’s defense played well enough to allow the Gators to go 10-3. Trask was better than Franks in 2019, but his overall statistics were that of an above-average QB rather than a star.
Franks never got the chance to blossom into a star if he was going to, and Trask blossomed in year two, but I don’t know what evidence we have that Jones will immediately step in and be an impact player in a way neither of his predecessors were able to do.
In 2013, Dak Prescott put up a 126.6 QB Rating as a redshirt freshman in his first major playing time. That improved to 151.7 in his second year, which is when Mississippi State rose to number one in the country. The floor for Prescott was really high though because he ran for 829 yards (6.2 yards per rush) in 2013. With the increased efficiency in 2014 through the air, the Bulldog offense took off (36.9 ppg vs. 27.7 ppg in 2013).
I think those are reasonable expectations for Emory Jones. Maybe he’s ahead of where Prescott was, but the reality is that until you’re the starter out there when the lights are on full-tilt, you just don’t know how any QB will perform.
Maybe Jones will be outstanding. But I think it’s more likely that we know his floor is greatly raised because of his running ability and he likely is going to have to come along some as a passer as the season wears on. That isn’t a bad thing.
It’s just the natural development of a QB under Dan Mullen.
Head Coach Jacquez Green
You might’ve missed the news, but former Gators wide receiver Jacquez Green was named the permanent head coach at Manatee High School. Green was the interim coach for the past year – going 8-2 – while the school conducted a “national search” for its next head coaching candidate.
I’m not sure you could do much better than Green. Green was a major contributor to the 1996 National Champion, catching 33 balls (19.0 yards per catch average), including 5 catches for 79 yards in the 52-20 beating of FSU in the Sugar Bowl. He’s going to be able to speak to his players about what it takes to play at the next level.
On a personal level, Green was on one of the first Gators Breakdown podcasts I ever was on, and behind the scenes he was a humble guy who just seemed thankful for the opportunity to be a Gator. He spoke of recruiting back in the 90s and how different it was back then, but he also realized the pressures of kids nowadays and how social media exacerbated those pressures.
Again, someone with that attitude who can guide his players is a good choice for a high school coach. The fact that he has experience as a start at the college level and as a contributor at the NFL level is really just gravy.
Baseball: 2-1 vs. Kentucky
After a rousing series win over Vanderbilt last weekend, you could excuse the Gators if they didn’t have their A-game against Kentucky (or Stetson earlier in the week).
Instead, Florida won 3 of 4, beating Stetson 9-6 and then taking 2 of 3 from the Wildcats, in Lexington. The Gators fell behind 5-0 in the opener against the ‘Cats, but rallied back to tie it, only to give up 2 runs in the 8th inning to lose 7-5.
The Gators then won in their last at-bat, first tying the game at 5, then taking a 3-run lead on a home run by Kendrick Calilao.
That made me start to wonder why Calilao hasn’t been playing more. After starting for the vast majority of last season, Calilao has only started 15 of 47 games thus far. Yet, he’s been the producer of game winning home runs on two separate occasions thus far.
Having Calilao on the bench is a luxury. His OPS is up to .760 on the season, which is higher than last season significantly (.676), but it’s still below the team average (.833). He also only has two home runs on the year; they just happen to have occurred at really important times.
Baseball is often a game of streaks. A starting pitcher who can’t make it out of the first inning costs you a game. A hitter gets hot at just the right time and carries a team for a week or two. We look at the numbers to try and understand what might happen next and whether what has already happened is unusual.
Most studies seem to indicate that “clutchness” doesn’t really exist. Instead, the guys who get on base 40% of the time are likely to do so in the playoffs, but that a small sample size increases the error bars around what could happen.
I’m glad Calilao is the guy that Kevin O’Sullivan can call on as a pinch hitter late in games. He’s shown he can get the job done and is a solid bat off the bench. But based on his numbers, that’s what he is.
Softball: SEC Champions
The Gators softball team swept Texas A&M over the weekend and secured a 40-8 record and the regular season SEC Championship.
This isn’t a new thing for Tim Walton. This is the Gators 8th SEC regular season title under Walton and they are now going for their sixth SEC tournament championship starting on Wednesday (May 12).
The team’s 40-8 record (.833 win pct) is right in line with Walton’s win percentage at Florida (.828) so ho, hum, this is just another step in a championship direction for a program that regularly is there, right?
Well, if football and basketball have taught us anything, it’s that we shouldn’t take for granted greatness in a coach when we see it. Walton is putting together a run that was never seen at Florida prior to his arrival and likely won’t be seen after he departs as well.
I think sometimes we lose sight of that because Florida fans got both Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer in the course of 20 years. The idea that Florida could basically plug a good coach into the machine and win was something I think many of us thought when Will Muschamp and Jim McElwain were brought in. After all, this is Florida!
But if the Mike White era has taught us anything, it’s that building championship programs is hard. It takes a special person to be able to do that and it doesn’t come around all that often.
So congratulations to all of the women on the softball team on their SEC Championship. But also, congratulations to Tim Walton, who is building a dynasty that Florida fans should appreciate.