By Will Miles
Softball vs. South Carolina
The Gators softball team still has a gaudy 35-7 record (14-4 SEC), but we are starting to see some cracks in the armor as we come down the stretch.
I wasn’t all that worried when they lost to UCF prior to a three-game series against Alabama. After all, Alabama was highly ranked and you could excuse the Gators looking past the Knights in a mid-week tilt. The Gators righted the ship, taking 2 of 3 from Alabama, then winning a mid-week game with FGCU. Then this weekend, the Gators took 2 of 3 from South Carolina, doubly impressive because they lost the opener 2-1 in a game started by their ace, Elizabeth Hightower.
I suspect there’s nothing to worry about. But the Gators are now 5-3 in their last 8 after winning 30 of its first 33 games. Every team has a poor stretch every now and then, but this is a bad time to have one, as the Gators only have two weekend series left (against Missouri and Texas A&M) prior to the start of the SEC tournament.
The team is ranked 3rd nationally and has shown the ability to take on all comers. It’s not a huge deal to lose a couple of close games. But it is something to keep an eye on as we come down the stretch.
Baseball vs. Auburn
The baseball team now stands at 28-12 (11-7 SEC) after winning two out of three against Auburn over the weekend.
Hunter Barco was solid (5.1 IP, 3 ER) in the finale and Franco Aleman pitched really well in the opener (5.0 IP, 0 ER). Jack Leftwich pitched a scoreless inning in the opener but then was touched up for 5 ER in the decisive 6-run fifth inning of the second game of the series that the Gators lost 10-8.
And Leftwich’s performance really sums up this team. There is a ton of individual talent on the squad, but each player seems to have had a moment – or series of moments – of inconsistency that has led to a loss. I pick on the pitchers, but Jud Fabian now has 14 HR and 54 strikeouts in 153 at bats. That 35% strikeout clip is 8.8% higher than his 2020 total (in 68 at bats).
Jacob Young – who was the talk of the early season with the extension of his hitting streak – has an on-base percentage of .408, more than 100 points below last year’s total.
Those aren’t bad numbers (especially Young, as a .400 OBP is still really good), but they aren’t the numbers that these same players put up a year ago. The question is whether last year’s performance is representative of who they are, or whether it’s actually this year’s performance.
Perhaps it’s somewhere in-between, which means we should recalibrate what our idea of success is.
Vanderbilt is coming
The Gators actually have a chance to prove themselves this weekend in a big way. Second-ranked Vanderbilt comes to town and they’re bringing elite arms in Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker to town as well.
Leiter (1.49 ERA in 60.1 IP) gets a lot of the publicity, but Rocker (1.55 ERA in 64.0 IP) is just as good statistically. Add to that Nick Maldonado (0.77 ERA in 23.1 IP) and don’t be surprised if the Gators bats get silenced.
The one respite they’ll likely get is that Thomas Schultz (4.21 ERA in 36.1 IP) and Christian Little (5.16 ERA in 22.2 IP) have made 14 of Vanderbilt’s 18 non-Leiter and non-Rocker starts. So Florida has a good chance of winning the series if they can snag one against Vanderbilt’s elite arms.
Of course, that’s easier said than done. In 20 starts, Leiter and Rocker have combined for a 16-2 record, indicating that they’re going to go deep enough in the game to get a decision, and that when they do, they’ll likely come out on top.
This is a true challenge for the Gators. The Commodores 2.89 ERA is more than a full run (3.99) better than Florida’s. And for all we talk about Vanderbilt’s pitching, they are scoring 7.01 runs per game as well, compared to 6.83 runs per game for Florida.
So over the course of this season, Vanderbilt has been the better team. But that’s the beauty of baseball. It doesn’t matter who has been the better team thus far. All that matters is that Florida comes out focused and asserts itself as the better team right now.
They have a chance to show us the team we all thought they’d be to start the season. We’ll see if they can pull it off.
2021 NFL Draft
The 2021 NFL Draft is Thursday through Saturday and Roger Goodell will be back to his hugging ways.
A fair number of Gators are going to hear their names called and I’m thrilled for them. The amount of time in the weight room, on the practice field and watching film is something I’m not sure anybody on the outside could truly understand.
Everybody knows Kyle Pitts is going in the top-10 and Kadarius Toney is likely going to get picked in the bottom of the first round or early in the second. There’s a little bit of intrigue around where Kyle Trask will go and whether he can sneak into the higher rounds, but he’s not going to be in the big conversation considering that Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, Trey Lance, Mac Brown and Zach Wilson are all going to go in the first round.
The guy I’m most interested in seeing is perhaps the most polarizing Gator in years: Marco Wilson. If you’ve been watching Chad Wilson’s twitter feed this week, you’ve seen him post film of Marco doing things right, ironically in last year’s LSU game. There’s no doubt that Wilson possesses some special physical skills. In fact, I think that’s a big part of why Gators fans were so frustrated by his play last season.
Big plays were just killers against Texas A&M and often it was Wilson getting beat. The shoe toss against LSU was an unbelievably stupid penalty that likely cost the team the game.
But in between those things that caused the fans’ ire to be cast towards Wilson was some really good play. That isn’t an excuse. Big plays and stupid penalties matter. But it is the reason I think Wilson is going to go much higher in the draft than many Gators fans probably think.
2022 NFL Draft
Looking forward an entire year, who has a shot at being a high draft pick in the 2022 NFL Draft?
You might say someone on the defense. After all, I think there’s a good case to be made that Kaiir Elam, Brenton Cox and Zachary Carter are the best players on the team coming into the 2021 season, not just the defense. Add to that someone like Mohamoud Diabate who is immensely talented but new to linebacker and perhaps one of them has a big enough season to warrant first round consideration.
But I actually think the guy who has a chance to be a first round pick is on the offensive side of the ball. Wide receiver Jacob Copeland has never had the opportunity to be featured since he came to Gainesville. He’s struggled with consistency and with drops, but he also averaged nearly 19 yards per catch last season. That’s an explosive number.
He also only caught 23 balls, so obviously that number has to go up. But it will with the departures of Pitts, Toney and Trevon Grimes. It is now Copeland’s time to be the veteran. It is now Copeland’s time to be the player who gets targeted early and often. And it is Copeland who has hopefully spent a lot of time working with Emory Jones as all of the NFL-quality receivers in front of him got first-team reps.
To not take a major step backwards, Florida’s offense is going to have to find a way to throw the ball down the field. If Jones is able to do that consistently, he’s going to be throwing the ball to Copeland.
SEC Network Special
The SEC Network aired a special on the Gators this week, and it just wasn’t any good.
Billed as an opportunity to see film from spring practice, instead it was an infomercial for the university and the program. That’s fine, but it isn’t what fans were told it would be, and the fact that it was immediately followed by a re-air of Texas A&M’s spring game was a real kick in the stones.
I would feel differently if I thought that the show would resonate with recruits, but I don’t think it comes close to achieving that. I mean if I – a 39-year old die-hard – was bored out of my mind during the program, I sincerely doubt that any 16 or 17-year old kid was riveted at hearing Chip Howards – Florida’s executive associate athletics director for internal affairs – talk about the new facilities that are being built.
And hey, trying something new sometimes faceplants. You don’t ever create good content without creating some sub-standard content as well.
But I go back to what the program was billed to be. In 2018, I expressed frustration that Mullen turned the spring game into a spectacle. There were multiple things that frustrated me about the event, but the biggest was that it was not what fans were promised going into the game.
I have no problem seeing an exhibition that teaches me nothing about the team if you tell me that beforehand. Then I can decide whether watching something like that is worth my time. In the same way, I have no problem with Florida giving the SEC Network a two-hour infomercial that is contractually obligated in lieu of a spring game, but that’s not what was promised by athletic director Scott Stricklin going in.
Spring games are popular because they deliver hope to fans about what might be coming next year. In my view, Florida promised at least some of that hope and then completely failed to deliver.
Who’s returning punts?
One thing I always look for in spring games is who the head coach has back there catching punts. It at least gives you an opportunity to see what he is thinking heading into the season. Yes, the punt returner doesn’t get tackled in the spring game, but just seeing who the coach has back there tells you what might be coming in the fall and what he thinks of his team.
Take 2018, for example. Freddie Swain was about as automatic as there was back there catching punts, but didn’t really have a ton of explosive plays once he caught the ball. However, Swain was a starting receiver. That tells you immediately that the depth at the receiver position is lacking, but that Mullen felt good enough about his core receivers that he could risk Swain back there.
Kadarius Toney brought a little bit more electricity to the position, but was also a starter back there catching punts. I think it said the same thing about the team last season from a depth perspective, especially when you consider the impact of not having spring practice at all.
So that’s what I was hoping to figure out in the spring game. They weren’t going to show us what Emory Jones could do. They weren’t going to go all-out in the running game like they will during the season. But those little things – the little things that tell you something about how the coach feels about his team – are the kinds of things you can pick up.
We don’t get that this year. In the grand scheme of things, that’s not really a big deal. But it is disappointing for those of us who like having a better understanding of the team and where it stands.
Defensive tackle situation in 2021
The only thing that really did pop on the SEC Network special was defensive tackle Gervon Dexter making a goal-line tackle. That’s important to see because without a giant leap from Dexter, I’m not sure Florida is any better on the defensive line than they were last season.
Tedarrell Slaton and Kyree Campbell were the starters, at least after the Texas A&M game. The return of Campbell after the Texas A&M game at least gave Florida some chance to stop the opposition, but it was not the panacea that Gators fans hoped after losing to the Aggies. Dexter was okay as a true freshman, but it’s not fair to ask a true freshman – even one as talented as Dexter – to carry the load in the SEC.
Slaton and Campbell are gone. Antonio Valentino (Shelton) and Daquan Newkirk are in. Valentino and Newkirk are good players with solid Power-5 experience, but I do question whether they’re appreciably better than Campbell and Slaton.
That means that Dexter’s development – and the ability of the defensive tackles to stay healthy – is going to play a huge role in whether this defense can consistently get stops.
Last season, the Florida linebackers were maligned for multiple reasons. But one thing that never really got the attention it deserved was that often they were getting mauled by offensive linemen while trying to shed that block and make a tackle on a running back. In many ways, that’s a direct indictment of the interior defensive line not being able to occupy multiple blockers.
Can Florida’s defensive line be significantly better in 2021? Well, unless Valentino or Newkirk are way better than expected, the answer to that question will lie directly at the feet of Gervon Dexter. Luckily, he’s a rare 5-star recruit that Florida landed so he has the pedigree to be able to have that kind of impact.
But we’ll see whether he can truly be a difference maker in 2021.
Offensive line situation in 2021
Ask a Florida fan about the offensive line and who they’d like to replace and the answer is quick: Jean Delance.
I’m higher on Delance than most, but at least for 2021, I think it misses the major story. Florida has already proven that it can have an elite offense in the SEC with Delance and Stewart Reese on the right side of the line. What they haven’t proven is that all of the guys who’ve received limited playing time thus far will be able to step in for Stone Forsythe and Brett Heggie.
I think Forsythe probably gets drafted in the 4th or 5th round while Heggie may end up being an undrafted free agent. But both of those guys are going to occupy a spot on an NFL roster next year and I’m not sure there’s an appreciation for what they did to help Trask, Pitts and Toney excel.
So sure, if there’s someone better than Delance for right tackle, I’m all for it. But I’ll be looking at the left tackle and left guard when the Gators open up play in 2021 to see whether that side is going to go from a strength to a liability.
Jordan Reed Retirement
News came this week that both Jordan Reed and Marcus Gilbert are retiring from the NFL.
It’s funny that my reaction to Reed’s retirement was much stronger than my reaction to Gilbert’s. I say that because Gilbert was a part of the 2008 national championship team (made two starts), a full-time starter on the 2009 team and was drafted in the second round. Truly a remarkable career.
Reed’s tenure came later, much of it with Will Muschamp at the helm. He converted from a QB to a tight end and put up numbers pretty similar to standout tight ends that have been at Florida previously like Ben Troupe and Aaron Hernandez.
Of course, the one play that everyone remembers about Reed is the fumble against Georgia in 2012, but he’s retiring at the right time because the shoe toss has definitely supplanted his fumble as the most painful moment in my history as a Florida football fan.
But I actually think my response to Reed had more to do with the reason he was retiring. After the Hernandez saga – and the finding that his brain had the most severe case of CTE that researches had ever seen in someone his age – I’m sensitive to the fact that these players are putting their well-being on the line for our enjoyment.
After retiring, Reed basically said that he was playing with concussion symptoms from a 2019 hit by fellow Gator Keanu Neal throughout the 2020 season. That’s scary.
So I’m happy I got to root for Jordan Reed. I’m happy he was able to make life changing money in the NFL. But I’m also happy that he’s retiring, because while he loved playing football, he decided that his family was more important.