By: Will Miles
NFL Draft, Gator Edition
With the draft having just passed, we finally got to enjoy a sporting event where we didn’t already know the outcome. Yes, it’s just the NFL Draft, but oh my, how I have missed anything new to talk about with sports shut down due to the coronavirus.
NFL.com has a draft tracker tool that grades each prospective prospect (who was invited to the combine) on a scale of 5.0 to 8.0. The grades mean the following:
- 8.0 = Perfect prospect
- 7.3-7.5 = Perennial All-Pro
- 7.0-7.1 = Pro Bowl talent
- 6.7-6.8 = Year 1 quality starter
- 6.5 = Boom or bust prospect
- 6.3-6.4 = Will be starter within the first two seasons
- 6.1-6.2 = Good backup who could become a starter
- 6.0 = Developmental traits-based prospect
- 5.8-5.9 = Backup/Special teams
- 5.5-5.6 = Chance to make end of roster or practice squad
- 5.4 = Priority free agent
- 5.0 – 5.1 = Chance to be in an NFL training camp
So I thought it would be fun to examine each of the former Gators and their rankings, and predict whether they will outperform or underperform the rankings given by NFL.com.
C.J. Henderson (6.72) – Better
Henderson is – by far – the highest ranked Gator on the board. Most mock drafts have him going in the first round, and a large portion of those have him going in the top half of the first round.
So I’m confused how he is only rated as a quality starter as opposed to a Pro Bowl talent or All Pro candidate. You don’t take a cornerback in the top-15 picks unless you think he has the ability to be a star.
Henderson is no stranger to high expectations. He started his career at Florida with a pick-six that set the tone against Tennessee and Quinton Dormady in 2017. He followed that up with a monster 2018 campaign that really made 2019 just a waiting game until he was eligible to enter the draft.
Yes, he needs to become a more willing tackler. Yes, his lack of emotion sometimes comes off as not necessarily caring as much as fans might like.
But the guy is an elite cover corner. That skill gets you to the Pro Bowl. And if you’re making the Pro Bowl – see Deion Sanders – nobody cares if you don’t want to tackle.
Jabari Zuniga (6.29) – Worse
This surprised me that Zuniga was ranked second by NFL.com as a draft prospect. Expectations were high for Zuniga coming into 2019 but due to injuries, he just wasn’t able to fulfill those expectations. Instead, it was Jonathan Greenard who filled the role left by Jachai Polite from 2018.
But I suppose maybe we should pay attention to the fact that the guy across from Zuniga has been elite the last two years. Does that have to do with him? After all, Polite completely flamed out with the Jets after being selected in the third round last season.
But here’s the thing that worries me. The last two seasons against Georgia, Zuniga has zero sacks and two tackles for loss. Jake Fromm was completely comfortable in the 2019 game, converting third down after third down because Florida couldn’t put any pressure on him.
Every team in the NFL has offensive linemen at Georgia quality or above and Zuniga is going to have to beat them one-on-one. I think he’ll probably contribute on special teams quite a bit and potentially provide depth as a situational pass rusher. But I’d be surprised if he starts all that much at the NFL level.
Van Jefferson (6.27) – Worse
Next on the list is the receiver that everyone loves from Florida. The Senior Bowl and combine really showed Jefferson’s skills, as he is an elite route runner who does seem able to create space, at least at the college level.
But Jefferson only had eight explosive plays in 2019 on 49 catches (70 targets). Certainly players who are elite route runners can get away with being less explosive than others. And Jefferson has the size (6’2”) to go get the ball if his QB puts the ball up for grabs.
But a ranking of 6.27 indicates someone who will be a solid starter at the NFL level. Certainly, Jefferson could attain that level. But I can’t shake that when Florida needed a big play in 2019, they didn’t often target Jefferson. It required defenses to key on Kyle Pitts before the Gators would target Jefferson extensively.
Being the second option behind Pitts isn’t anything to be ashamed of. But if I’m an NFL team, I want a player more explosive than a tight end, even if that tight end is Pitts.
Jonathan Greenard (6.21) – Better
The fact that NFL.com has Greenard rated lower than Zuniga is just flummoxing. And the fact that he’s considered a backup who might become a starter also has me confused.
Whenever Greenard has been on the field, he has produced. He had seven sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss as a sophomore at Louisville. And if you question the talent level in the ACC, well, he had 10 sacks and 16 tackles for loss in the SEC last season.
When Greenard wasn’t on the field or was banged-up, Florida had zero ability to get to the QB. When he was healthy, he was a nightmare for opposing offenses. He was a huge reason Auburn’s Bo Nix was so uncomfortable and he was a consistent nightmare for Virginia QB Bryce Perkins.
He was also strong against the run, and at 263 pounds, is heavier than Zuniga but showed more quickness on the field. Some teams might be scared off by his 4.87 40-yard dash time, but he is faster than that once the pads go on.
I’d be shocked if Greenard doesn’t have at least one year with 10 sacks in the NFL. That means he’s significantly outplayed just being a quality backup.
Lamical Perine (5.99) – Push
I think this rating is about right for Perine. I love what he contributed to Florida, but the things that led to him being a 3-star prospect coming out of high school may limit him at the NFL level.
The one significant feather in his cap is that he is an excellent receiver out of the backfield. In an offense that utilizes a third-down back for pass protection and as an outlet in the passing game (think James White for New England), Perine could thrive.
And yes, Florida’s offensive line struggled in 2019, depressing Perine’s rushing numbers. But Dameon Pierce had a higher yards per rush average – by a full half-yard – in 2019 running behind that same line. The reality is that Perine had to make defenders miss in the backfield a lot, but he wasn’t able to do so as often as Pierce.
So a place as a third-down back is possible. A place as a key special-teams cog is possible. But just as possible is someone who ends up bouncing between the end of the roster and the practice squad.
A lot is going to depend on who takes him and how they use him, because we know Perine will come in with a chip on his shoulder.
Freddie Swain (5.8) – Better
I love Freddie Swain. Unlike Van Jefferson – who is known as a great route runner who can get separation – Swain is never talked about like that.
The reason is that he doesn’t do those things all that well. But he is explosive. In 2019, he accounted for 10 explosive plays on 58 targets. This after he accounted for four explosives on 20 targets in 2018.
So while Swain has clear deficiencies in his game, he also has an explosiveness that the other Gators wide receivers did not possess last season.
That to me means he has the potential to be way better than just a special teamer. In fact, if he lands in the right situation and can pick up some of the nuances of the receiver position, I think Swain can be a better pro than Jefferson.
Add to that the fact the Swain is an excellent punt returner and you have someone who brings value in multiple places as he grows into a larger role. Draft Scout has Swain latching on somewhere as an undrafted free agent.
Some team is going to get a deal.
Tyrie Cleveland (5.61) – Better
Cleveland is the lowest ranked Gators wide receiver on the board. That’s because for all of his size (6’2”, 205 lbs) and speed (4.46 40-yard dash at the combine), his production at the college level has been underwhelming.
Gators fans will be forever grateful for the “Heave to Cleve” in 2017. And certainly, those Jim McElwain/Doug Nussmeier offensive train wrecks likely had some impact on Cleveland’s stats.
But he went from 14 catches in 2016 to 22 in 2017, 18 in 2018 and 25 in 2019. Perhaps more significantly, his yards per catch averages went from 21.3 to 18.6 to 11.8 to 14.0. Someone that big and fast shouldn’t be a possession receiver, but that’s exactly what he became.
I don’t think he’s going to become a star, but there is one thing that stood out in Cleveland’s time in Gainesville: his unselfishness.
All of the Gators receivers contributed on special teams, and Cleveland was no exception. Rosters in the NFL dictate that players who are on the fringe be able to contribute in multiple places, and Cleveland has shown an ability and a willingness to do just that.
Tommy Townsend (5.50) – Worse
There are only 32 NFL teams. That means there are only 32 punting jobs.
Townsend averaged 44.0 yards per punt last season. That would have been tied for 30th in the NFL last season with Green Bay’s J.K. Scott. Scott averaged 45.6 yards per punt in college, nearly a full yard more than Townsend in his two years at Florida.
Townsend is a great athlete (4.75 40-yard dash), but that’s not what gets you on the field as a punter. If Scott was the bottom of the barrel in the NFL last year and he was better than Townsend in college, I have to wonder whether Townsend is going to get a chance in the league.
Specialists aren’t going to end up on practice squads and teams almost never carry two punters. That means Townsend is going to get invited to camp as an undrafted free agent and have to win the job away from the incumbent. That’s a pretty tall task.
David Reese (unranked) – Better
One player I haven’t heard anything about is linebacker David Reese. In fact, he wasn’t even invited to the combine.
I think that’s a mistake.
Reese was the heart and soul of the Gators defense for three years. As a young player, he called out his teammates after terrible performances during the 2017 McElwain firing. And it’s not a coincidence that Florida had no answer for Benny Snell against Kentucky in 2018 when Reese was out but then immediately was better against the run once Reese made it back into the lineup.
I’m not saying Reese is going to be Zach Thomas. He is limited in terms of what he can do from an athleticism standpoint. The torching that John Kelly put on the Gators in 2017 jumps to mind when thinking about how the linebackers have struggled in coverage, and Reese was a part of that.
But at the same time, it seems like there should be a place in the league for a player who always seems to be in the right place, even if sometime the athleticism of the opponent prevents him from completely stopping the play.