By Will Miles
Gators baseball: 2 of 3 from Arkansas
Just when we thought we were out….they pull us back in.
The Gators baseball team was sitting at 18-10 after getting swept by Georgia last weekend. They were able to beat an overmatched Florida A&M team mid-week, but with #2 Arkansas coming to Gainesville for a 3-game series, things were looking pretty bleak for the Gators.
That was doubly true after an 8-1 loss in the opener to the Hogs, with Hunter Barco struggling (for him) giving up 3 ER in 5 IP. The game looked worse than it was because Arkansas scored 5 in the top of the ninth, but the Gators were shut down by Connor Noland (7 IP, 1 H, 0 ER) and weren’t winning the game without the late explosion.
But then something interesting happened. Brandon Sproat and Blake Purnell combined to give up only two runs in Game 2. The Gators scored 2 runs in each of the first two innings and cruised to a victory. The third game was a bit different, as Brandon Neely gave up 4 ER in 3.2 IP and the Gators one error came back to bite them (and Ryan Slater) as he surrendered 3 runs, but only one of them earned. But while the pitching struggled somewhat, the Gators offense picked them up to score 7 runs on Arkansas starter Jaxon Wiggins.
It is still concerning that the Gators gave up 8 and 7 runs in two of the games. But it’s really encouraging that after losing a game where Barco struggled, the Gators were able to come back and get the next two. If nothing else, they have some positive momentum heading into the next stretch of their schedule.
Road Warriors
The one thing to note about the sweep against Georgia is that it took place in Athens. Then you see the wins against Arkansas and recognize that they came in Gainesville.
While that hasn’t been completely true throughout the season, Florida is about to have to walk through the fire on the road in the next two weeks. That got off to a rocky start with a 5-0 road loss to Florida State on Tuesday night and now there are three road games against Vanderbilt this weekend.
In many ways, that series is going to be the fulcrum of the season. If the Arkansas series was righting the ship (the FSU loss certainly casts that in doubt), then then Vanderbilt series is starting up the engines to get the ship moving in the other direction. Beyond the series against the Commodores, the Tennessee Volunteers – currently #1 in the country – are waiting.
But focusing on these four road games (FSU, Vanderbilt) and getting a mid-week win over Stetson will set up the Gators to go into that series with something to prove and the ability to prove it.
Softball drops 2 of 3 to Alabama, also loses to FSU
After dropping 2 of 3 games against the Crimson Tide – along with a mid-week loss to FSU – the Gators softball team now stands at 31-9 (8-7 SEC). It’s that 8-7 record that concerns me most, as it indicates a team that can feast on inferior opponents but is going to be a 50/50 proposition once the talent level becomes equivalent.
But if you’re looking for a bright spot in the series against Alabama, it is this: when the Gators absolutely needed a win, and Alabama had their ace Montana Fouts on the mound, they knocked her out in the fourth inning. They also got to Fouts somewhat in the opener (7 IP, 3 ER), which says something about the offense and its ability to perform.
Of course, if we’re looking for a sign of trouble, it would be that Elizabeth Hightower – Florida’s ace – really struggled. She opened up with 2.2 IP and 7 ER and closed with 3.2 IP and 4 ER. Softball is a sport where shutouts are a common occurrence, so giving up that many runs is alarming.
So too, is the ability to throw strikes. Hightower has 42 walks in 93.2 IP (and 87 K). Last year, she had 49 walks in 156.2 IP (and 121 K). So Hightower is striking out batters at a much higher rate (0.93 K/IP vs. 0.77 last year) but is walking batters at a much higher rate as well. Combine that with 77 hits surrendered this season (vs. 97 last year) and Hightower’s walk-hits-innings pitched (WHIP) has increased from 0.93 to 1.27. There are just more people on base, and those baserunners are converting to runs.
Luckily, we have a long track record of Hightower being better than this. But if Florida is going to really compete this year, it’s going to require a reversion back to her 2021 form.
Castleton staying with the Gators
Colin Castleton announced this week that he’s coming back to the Gators basketball team for the 2022-2023 season.
This is the first big win for new coach Todd Golden, but it’s also a win for name, image and likeness. According to Zach Abolverdi, the Gator Collective put together a NIL deal for Castleton that made Gainesville a more attractive option than it might otherwise have been. This truly is the value of NIL: Castleton could have made money overseas, but probably wasn’t going to get drafted into the NBA. Now, he gets to make money, stay in college and audition for the NBA for another year.
As for on the court, Castleton averaged 16.2 points per game and 9.0 rebounds and on the advanced metric side led the Gators with 4.5 Win-shares last year despite playing hurt.
More than anything, Castleton ensures that there will be continuity heading into Golden’s first year. I don’t think he’s winning them the SEC all alone, but if Florida can add (or develop) another couple of players who provide similar value to him, then that’s a team that can at least compete in the SEC.
It’s been a while since we’ve truly been able to say that about Florida basketball.
Roster beginning to take shape
With Castleton coming back – and the commitment of transfer Will Richard – the Florida roster is starting to take shape.
Richard is the kind of player who can potentially give the Gators one of those players who can achieve 4 win-shares (WS). I say this because he produced 4.2 WS last season at Belmont. Beyond that, the players who were underutilized last season are likely going to have an ability to step up.
Jason Jitoboh averaged 10.6 minutes per game, but averaged 0.203 WS/40, comparing quite closely to Castleton (0.208 WS/40). C.J. Felder (0.143 WS/40) is going to get more time after averaging 12.1 minutes per game last season. Combine that with Niels Lane (15.1 mpg, 0.078 WS/40) and Kowacie Reeves (15.5 mpg and 0.102 WS/40) and there is the possibility that one of those guys will step up into a much larger role.
It’s still not going to be enough to get Florida to where it wants to go eventually. But seeing improvement in Year 1 of the Golden era – even if he doesn’t really add any major contributors to the roster for 2022-2023 from where it stands now, should be the expectation, not the hope.
Spring game is here
After a 2-year hiatus, the Orange and Blue Debut is back.
It’s weird because it is on a Thursday after being moved from the Saturday before Easter. The original date was weird timing, and certainly the rescheduling didn’t please a lot of people either. It was undoubtedly a mis-step for this regime, and so what we see on Thursday will go a long way towards making amends.
Napier seems to be doing this right from my perspective. He has designated two teams and is having them practice separately. He has announced that there will be four 15-minute quarters with a running clock, except for a normal clock for the last four minutes of each half.
What that means is if he is to believed, we’re going to see competitive football that somewhat matches a real game. That doesn’t mean we should make definitive conclusions about the team coming out of the game, but it does mean we should be happy that the team is going to be asked to compete and that the entirety of the spring season is going to reflect that.
I was extremely critical of Dan Mullen when he treated the spring game as a joke in 2018. It seemed short-sighted to waste a practice and an opportunity to compete to have former alums catch passes after slipping off of the sideline. I think I’ve mellowed on that opinion somewhat over the past four years, but I can’t ignore that as the competitiveness seeped out of the team late in 2020 and after the Alabama loss in 2021, I did think back to that moment.
Hopefully we don’t say the same thing about this game and Napier.
What to look for?
So what should we look for?
I fully expect the defensive backs to be the strength of the team. I also fully expect the wide receivers to be one of the weaknesses. That means I want to see whether the receivers are able to get separation from the defensive backs once the lights come on.
The reason is simple: while I think Anthony Richardson can be special, I don’t think that’s the case if he’s constantly having to fit the ball in tight windows. At some point, the receivers have to win some one-on-one battles.
Oftentimes, we look at the spring game and don’t know whether a performance is good or whether the opposing unit is bad. For instance, if the offensive line dominates on Thursday, I don’t really know whether it was because they were good or whether it was because the defensive line is bad. Only Gervon Dexter and Brenton Cox are back, which means there are a ton of unknowns.
That’s not true at the defensive back position. Jason Marshall, Avery Helm and Jadarrius Perkins got a lot of playing time last year. So did Tre’Vez Johnson and Rashad Torrence. Add to that Jaydon Hill and Jalen Kimber and that unit should be really good.
That means if the Gators wide receivers show out, one of the places we look at this year as a weakness could actually be a strength.
Napier wants more discipline
At Napier’s press conference this weekend, the one thing he harped on was the need to be more disciplined. For anybody who watched the team last season, that isn’t a big surprise.
Napier specifically delineated two types of penalties. The first are effort penalties – like a pass interference or defensive holding call – while the second are discipline penalties (jumping offsides, hitting after the whistle). Napier indicated way too many of the former in the most recent scrimmage.
Again, that shouldn’t be a surprise, which means the question is going to be how Napier deals with the problem rather than the problem existing. We know how Mullen and Co. dealt with on-field discipline problems. We all found out with the shoe toss against LSU and the eight false starts against Kentucky.
The spring game isn’t going to tell us much about this. Instead, we’ll probably have to wait until kickoff against Utah, but Napier has sent the message. He has told the media – and the fans – that undisciplined play is going to be unacceptable. That means that if he doesn’t hold those players acceptable, we’ll see it and be able to ask questions about why.
Lamar Goods enters the portal
This week defensive tackle Lamar Goods entered the transfer portal. Napier indicated that Goods is no longer with team and so a place where Florida was already low on numbers and experience has gotten even more so.
It’s hard to get too disappointed with Goods’ departure. He is a guy who has one career tackle at Florida and so has not been a major contributor. Yet, with Dante Zanders moving to tight end, Goods’ absence means Florida now has five defensive tackles who are not true freshmen.
Obviously Gervon Dexter is the lead, but Jalen Lee (9 tackles, 1.5 TFL), Desmond Watson (7 tackles, 0.5 TFL), Jaelin Humphries, and Chris Thomas have sparingly little playing time. That means they’ll be fresh, but it also means that Goods leaving requires a replacement.
I’m sure those replacements are coming, but it’s something to keep in mind as Napier mines the transfer portal. We all want to see some high-level tight ends and potentially wide receivers, but for the second year in a row (and quite honestly, every year in the Mullen era), the transfer portal has to be used to supplement defensive tackle.
“We need more players”
Napier knows he’s going to be bringing in a bunch of players after the spring. He said as much when he spoke about needing players to build depth and get full 2-deeps he feels comfortable putting out on the field.
Dave Wunderlich recently wrote about how there is likely going to be a mass exodus of players following the spring, and I think he’s right. Florida is already above its scholarship limit for 2022, but the Gators also need to add talent and depth through the portal. That means players are going to have to leave.
Who those players are exactly is unknown. I suspect that there are going to be units that end up thin (i.e. defensive tackle) because players decide to leave because they aren’t a culture fit even if they are at a position of need. That has already happened somewhat, as Jacob Copeland decided to transfer to Maryland and Mohamoud Diabate and Ty’Ron Hopper decided to transfer as well, despite those being spots where Florida could use talent and bodies.
But as Wunderlich points out, the number of players who are going to leave the program is going to be substantial, especially if Napier awards 5 scholarships to walk-ons as he stated is in his plans. That’s substantially different than when Mullen took over in 2018 and the starting roster looked remarkably similar to the one that McElwain piloted in 2017.
Partly that’s a function of the transfer portal. But I also suspect it is an intentional choice when it comes to roster building. That’s because success in 2022 isn’t really the goal for Napier. It would be nice – and I’ll be jacked when the season starts – but 2022 is really about building a program.
That means setting a culture in place. That means finding out who is going to be part of the future and who is not. And it means clearing the way and opening up scholarships for a monster 2023 recruiting class.
Time will tell whether Napier can deliver on those promises, but it certainly seems like he’s laying the groundwork to do just that.