By Will Miles
COVID-19 Update
As of this writing, there appears to be some hope on the horizon. COVID-19 is still raging in New York City, but current models seem to suggest that the pandemic is starting to crest, particularly in Italy and Spain.
If the same happens here in the U.S. and we start to get back to a “new normal”, the logical next question is how and when sports come back into our lives. Indeed, MLB and the NBA are already in significant discussions about what that would look like and how to pull it off.
It’s going to be a significant challenge, but I suspect that if proven to work for professional leagues, college football will follow suit. But just because football is back in our lives doesn’t meant that it isn’t impacted.
A lot of what I’ve written about here embraces that reality.
Above all, I hope you and your families stay safe during this time.
Will there be a football season?
Of course there will be.
People who are predicting that the NCAA will cancel football haven’t looked at the money stream. In the 2011-2012 season, Florida’s football program delivered $49 million in profit while the entire athletic department delivered a total of $15.7 million. That means every other sport lost over $33 million.
So yes, it is sad softball season was canceled. It is sad that the basketball team wasn’t able to play in the NCAA tournament. And it is sad that the baseball team won’t be able to play for a championship this year.
But none of those sports move the needle when it comes to raising the funds that college football does. Canceling that won’t be a decision that’s taken lightly.
Does that mean empty stadiums, rapid blood testing, isolation from classmates and family and potentially even playing in the spring of 2021? It very well might.
But here’s the thing. MLB and the NBA have to bargain with their players to decide when they come back and how safe it is to play. Players at the college football level have no such ability.
I very much hope there’s a college football season and expect there to be one. I just hope the players don’t get taken advantage of in the process.
Virus-caused uncertainty and recruiting
Usually you can go back and look historically where a team stands in August and that tells you a lot about where its recruiting class will end up come December and February.
This year, all bets are off.
With limited contact, sales skills are going to have to be honed via phone. Facilities should be less important as staffs are only going to be able to give virtual tours. And organization is going to be key.
You’d expect these things to favor the Gators. While Florida is upgrading its facilities, it’s not there yet. Mullen doesn’t strike me as someone who is going to change on the phone versus in-person and I suspect the players who commit to him appreciate that.
But more than anything, Mullen will be able to sell his program on the one thing that he undoubtedly does a really good job at: winning. Sometimes that might be easy to overlook for a recruit who gets distracted by flashy recruiting pitches or facilities.
But if Mullen can win again in 2020 with his current cast and everyone is limited in their contact with recruits, it could turn into a huge advantage for the Gators.
Virus-caused uncertainty and team building
One thing that is going to be really difficult with all of the social distancing is building a rapport with your teammates.
Normally, this time of the offseason players bond during strength and conditioning. Often, the QB takes a leadership role and runs “voluntary” drills with his teammates. And that same QB oftentimes spends a ton of time watching film to really gain an understanding of the offense.
Well, the film part is all that somebody like Kyle Trask is going to be able to do.
He isn’t going to be able to throw with the new wide receivers replacing all of the seniors. He’s not going to be able to hold players accountable during workouts or after hours.
The saving grace for Gators fans is that Jamie Newman won’t be able to do that either, and he likely needs that time much more than Trask.
Virus-caused uncertainty and strength and conditioning
Florida has come back a ton in Dan Mullen’s tenure at Florida.
Just last season, the Gators came from behind against Miami, Kentucky and South Carolina. The year before the Gators came back late against Mississippi State, LSU, Vanderbilt and South Carolina.
If there’s been one hallmark of the Mullen era, it’s that his players have won tough games and haven’t folded when things have gotten tough.
A lot of the credit for that has gone to strength and conditioning coach Nick Savage. Well, Savage is in for the toughest job of his career at this point.
Thus far, he’s been creative, sending home individualized plans for each player and making do with what they have at home. He’s also making it a point to communicate with each player daily via text and weekly via phone.
But let’s be honest. There are ways for players to loaf if they want to. Certainly Mullen and Company will see that when the players come into fall camp, but by then it might be too late if that particular player is someone that the team needed to count on for 2020.
Thus, I’m really interested to see how Florida performs in the fourth quarter in 2020. We’ll know whether Savage succeeded by whether the Gators look tired and beat up at the end of games.
Again though, everyone is in the same boat. And Savage has proven to be both creative and effective in his two years in Gainesville thus far.
Let’s hope we can say the same thing after next season.
Trask vs. Jones
Over at Read and Reaction, I wrote about why some Gators fans seem to be so invested in Emory Jones getting to start over Kyle Trask. I think it’s really unfair to Trask.
He was head-and-shoulders better than any signal caller for the Gators since Tim Tebow ruled the Swamp in 2009. You’d think that Gators fans would be thirst for more after seeing so much sub-par quarterbacking over the past decade.
Yet, there’s a significant contingent that believes it is time to give Emory Jones command. In some respects, I get it. He was Mullen’s first really big recruit and he was the one everyone expected to be the first difference maker. He fits Mullen’s offense better than Trask, at least on the surface with his ability to run the ball.
But dig a little deeper into the stats and Trask really does have a path to significant improvement in 2020. And were Jones to decide to transfer prior to this year, he’d still have to sit out a year so there’s nothing to be gained unless he gets passed by Anthony Richardson on the depth chart.
And if that happens, then he wasn’t the savior that fans thought he was when he committed back in 2018.
I think Jones is a talented player. I think he’ll play a significant role in winning games as the Gators starting QB. I’m just not sure why you’d throw Trask overboard after he gave Florida something it hasn’t had in years.
Competent – and consistent – quarterback play.
Trask vs. the SEC
It isn’t just Florida where Trask excelled. He ranked 26th overall in passer efficiency rating and third in the SEC. The two players who ranked above him (Tua Tagovailoa and Joe Burrow) are gone.
Just go down the list. Who would you prefer to Trask in one game? Kellen Mond? Jamie Newman? Bo Nix? Ryan Hilinski? Jarrett Guarantano?
Maybe you’d take K.J. Costello, a player who excelled at Stanford before having some injuries who is now in the hands of Mike Leach. Or maybe you’d take Mac Jones, who averaged 10.7 yards per attempt last year but couldn’t keep the Bama offense humming like it did under Tua.
But Florida doesn’t have to play either of those guys. Instead, they get Terry Wilson coming off of a serious knee injury. They get John-Rhys Plumlee (who could be a challenge) with a horrid defense. They get Jamie Newman and Myles Brennan for their two toughest games.
Florida should have the advantage at quarterback in every game in plays in 2020. That’s why you’re seeing some pundits pick the Gators to win the SEC East, and potentially make the playoff.
Dan Mullen vs. the SEC
One of the big criticisms of Dan Mullen coming over to Florida from Mississippi State was his record against Alabama, LSU and Auburn (5-22).
Now, those teams all recruited significantly better than Mississippi State, so it was easy to dismiss. Add to that Mullen has beaten teams with more talent at a clip higher than his contemporaries in similar situations and I do think this has been somewhat overblown.
Mullen has been able to head off some of the talk about his success against big-time programs by demolishing Florida State in his first two years. After losing seven of its previous eight against the ‘Noles prior to Mullen’s arrival, that was something he had to turn around.
But if you look deeper, the more talented teams Florida has played have still given Mullen some fits. His 1-3 record against LSU and Georgia is worrisome, particularly when you consider that LSU had a chance to win in 2018 when Burrow threw the pick-6 and the in the other three games, the better team clearly won.
And then you have the fiasco of the wristbands against a Georgia team who made every Florida fan wonder how in the hell we lost to them after their performances against Auburn, Texas A&M and LSU.
Urban Meyer knew that you had to beat your rivals to please Gators fans. He did so, going 16-2 against Florida State, Georgia and Tennessee during his tenure. Mullen has been able to take care of FSU and the Vols, but Gators fans want Georgia. That is the rivalry that matters now.
So 21-5 is nice. The 11-5 record in the SEC is a little bit less shiny. But 0-2 against Georgia needs to stop, because it’s starting to look a lot like the 0-9 he put up against Alabama at Mississippi State.
Favorite (Football) Gator of All-Time
Lots of people would list Tim Tebow, Percy Harvin, Danny Wuerffel or Reidel Anthony in this space. Certainly, players who contributed to national championship teams usually take precedence.
But that’s not the case for me because my favorite Gator is former running back Earnest Graham.
I have a somewhat personal connection to Graham. I played baseball against him my junior year of high school when I was a slow-footed catcher in Ft. Myers and he was the fastest center fielder I’d ever seen playing for Mariner High School.
I followed him up to Gainesville a year later and cheered for him my entire time at school. He contributed to an SEC Championship in 2000 and was a key cog on a team that is considered one of the best Florida teams to not win the East, SEC or National Championship (2001).
If Twitter is any guide, that team is remembered really fondly, regardless of falling short against Auburn and Tennessee. In part, that’s probably because of the special bond that formed around September 11.
But for me, it has a special place because of Graham. One thing I’ve learned over the years is that professional athletes stand out. I have a friend here in Philadelphia who played for the Phillies. I’m reminded of that every time he and I play a pick-up game of basketball. From an athletic standpoint, he is just built differently.
That’s even more true for football, where the physical toll the game takes on players is partly because they are such incredible athletes to begin with. Anyone who has ever taken in a game from the sideline can attest to how amazingly fast and physical the game is.
So it was always a joy to watch a guy I’d seen and knew was special – even in a different sport – excel at Florida and then with the Buccaneers. Only in college football can you have that kind of connection.
Favorite (Basketball) Gators of All-Time
There have been a few Twitter brackets recently that have popped up with the lack of sports. One was actually ranking different Gator Twitter personalities (my buddy @GatorDave_SEC made the Final Four). But recently, the guys over at the Florida Basketball Hour have put out a bracket on the Gator basketball program and I have to admit that I don’t know half of the guys in that bracket.
That being said, it’s pretty easy for me to select my favorite player from the basketball program: Taurean Green.
Green was the point guard who made the national championship teams go. It might be easy to overlook his accomplishments if you think about those teams. After all, they had three guys who went on to be really successful NBA players and a dead-eye shooter in Lee Humphrey.
With all of that firepower, it would have been easy for Green to feel overlooked. In today’s environment, he might have transferred so that he had a better opportunity to shine elsewhere.
But Green stayed and the Gators wouldn’t have won either of those championships without him. He’s since gone on to have a really successful career overseas, and is still playing over there.
With all of the quarantines, SEC Network had a documentary on last week detailing Florida’s run to those two championships. One thing that struck me was how together that team was. Now certainly that had a lot to do with Noah, Horford and Brewer being able to pull for each other rather than trying to be “the guy” all the time.
But the same goes for Green. This is a guy who got drafted. It’s a guy who could have wanted a bigger role, especially after the first title. Instead, he averaged 13.3 points in 2005-2006 and 13.3 points in 2006-2007.
It shouldn’t be forgotten that he’s a big reason the Gators won those titles.